In the currency space, the US dollar has certainly not been immune from recent market volatility.  The dollar index peaked on February 20th, just one day after the S&P 500 had reached its all time highs.  That was the dollar’s highest level since April of 2017.  Over the following days, the dollar would go on to fall roughly 5% to its low on March 9th.  In the time since then, it has more than recovered those losses, rising over 6% and is once again back up to its highest levels since 2017.

This string of volatility for the greenback is rare.  As of today, the dollar is up 4.26% over the past ten days. But just back on the ninth (the recent low) it had been lower by 4.12% over the prior ten days.  The last time that there was both a 10-day change up and down of at least 4% in the span of just ten days was back in October of 2008. Going back through the index’s history since the early 1970s, there have been a total of 15 days (including that 2008 and current instances) in which such swings can be observed; shown by the red dots in the chart below. Prior to 2008, the only other times the dollar was as volatile by this measure was in the 1980s and late 1970s. So with regards to more recent history, it is even more unprecedented.

In terms of daily changes, the dollar has also been very volatile. Over the past ten days, the currency has averaged a daily change (positive or negative) of just over 1% which is rare going back through history. Again this is the most volatile the dollar has been since the financial crisis, though at that time, the daily swings were larger on average; reaching 1.35% at the high. Prior to 2008, the only other times the average daily change was over 1% was in the early 1990s, mid-1980s, and late 1970s. As with 2008, those past times were slightly more volatile than the current moment.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access all of our interactive tools and research.

Given the massive swings across assets, it should come as no surprise that volumes have been elevated.  For the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), over 3.25 billion shares have already exchanged hands in March through yesterday’s close.  That is the highest monthly volume for SPY since January of 2016, and keep in mind, we still have two weeks left in the month!

Considering that does not fully capture the Covid-19 saga which began to affect markets about a month ago now, we also looked at volumes over the last 20 days.  The volume of SPY traded in that time frame totals 4.7 billion shares.  As shown below, that is the highest volume since November of 2011.  One interesting thing to note, while volumes are certainly elevated, they still are not even close to levels in the years leading up, during, and shortly after the financial crisis.

While the number of shares trading hands has not eclipsed financial crisis highs, volumes in dollar terms have.  As of yesterday’s close, volumes reached a record of $1.4 trillion over the past 20 trading days.  The only other time that the dollar volume of SPY was over $1 trillion was briefly in 2008. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our full range of research and interactive tools.

Below is a snapshot of month-to-date and year-to-date returns for 72 country stock markets around the world (in local currency).  As of this morning, the average country was down 20% month-to-date and 26% year-to-date.  And this doesn’t even include the levels that North and South American equity markets are set to open at this morning, which looks to be 5-7% lower from yesterday’s close.

The country that has been hit the hardest in terms of equity market price destruction is Russia, which we haven’t heard from much regarding the COVID-19 virus.  Month-to-date, Russia is down 34.67%, and it’s down 45.18% year-to-date.  Seven other countries are down more than 30% month-to-date, including Italy, Greece, Austria, and Ireland.  France and Germany are both down close to 30%, while BRIC countries like Brazil and India are down more than 24%.

Notably on the other side of the spectrum is China, where markets are down only 5% month-to-date and 10% year-to-date.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

One of the trends we have been highlighting in the monthly retail sales report over the years has been the growing trend of eating out versus eating in.  For years we have seen the Bars and Restaurants category of retail sales consistently gaining share at the expense of the Food and Beverage Stores category.  Just last month, Bars and Restaurants saw their share of total sales rise to 12.46%, which was just below the record high of 12.47% from October 2018.  That total share of sales was also 0.07% greater than the share of Food and Beverage Stores (12.39%) which is also right near record highs.

The run was fun while it lasted.  With restaurants all over the country being forced to shut due to fears of the Covid-19 virus, even if American consumers wanted to go out to eat, the only way they can is by ordering takeout.  With everybody stuck at home, more Americans will undoubtedly be eating at home in the coming months, and that is going to cause the share of total sales for Bars and Restaurants to come crashing down.  The only question is whether other sectors besides Food & Beverage Stores will pick up the slack or if the pie will only get smaller as consumers reign in spending.

The trend of dining out is likely to take a hit in the coming months, but one trend that will only accelerate is ‘clicks’ over ‘bricks’.  After overtaking the category of General Merchandise in September 2018, Nonstore retailers have been picking up share at a steady pace ever since.  Through February, the current spread in share of 1.3 percentage points is not far from the record seen last September.  Again, though, with physical stores all over the country simply closing for an indefinite period in recent days, online is going to become the only option for consumers whether they can leave their homes or not.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

This morning the NAHB released results from their monthly survey of homebuilders.  The index showed some weakening in sentiment as it fell to 72 in March from 74 in February.  As with many other recent indicators released, that is a fairly modest decline given the current environment and likely would not have captured the full extent of equity market declines and shutdowns to enforce social distancing.  Granted, those effects are also not entirely absent either seeing as the NAHB noted half of the responses to the survey came after March 4th.

The headline index fell on lower readings pretty much across the board.  Each of the sub-indices with the exception of the Midwest fell in March. Additionally, perhaps the biggest negative shift this month was for future outlook with that index falling 4 points.  By comparison, the index for present sales only fell by 2 points. In other words, homebuilders seem to have experienced some slowdown in activity and are anticipating for it to get worse.

Again the index for the Midwest in March was a bit of an outlier.  It was the only region to rise in March, but that is after it was a bit weaker than other regions recently. In fact, the rise to 67 also still leaves the index for the Midwest 6 points off of the December high of 73.  Overall, as with the headline index, across different regions, sentiment has shifted lower although this is likely just the tip of the iceberg.

One factor at play that that may be balancing itself out is mortgage rates. The national average for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage was sitting at the low end of the past few years’ range earlier this month.  In the past week, though, mortgage rates have moved sharply higher and are now at similar levels to where they were last year. In other words, while low rates may have temporarily bolstered homebuilder confidence earlier this month, given the move in the past week, those effects have likely eased. Turning to next month’s survey, there is likely to be a large downward shift lower in homebuilder sentiment, especially if rates continue to drift higher. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs’ lead economist cut the bank’s GDP forecasts for the first half down to 0.0% in Q1 and a decline of 5.0% for the second quarter.  Based on how things are moving and in the direction they are going, 5% may sound like an optimistic scenario.  While all sorts of numbers have been thrown around regarding just about everything lately, we wanted to help put in perspective just how severe a quarterly decline in GDP of 5% really is.

The chart below shows US quarterly GDP going back to 1950.  First of all, negative quarters for GDP have been uncommon for the US economy over time.  In the 291 quarters since 1950, the US economy has only contracted in 41 (14%) of those quarters.  5% declines, however, are incredibly rare.  SInce 1950, there have only been six prior quarters where GDP declined by 5% or more with the most recent being back in December 2008.

Obviously, the circumstances surrounding each contraction in GDP is different, but prior quarters where there was such a large shock to the system were typically not ‘one and done’ events. In fact, all six of the prior quarterly contractions of 5% or more were either immediately preceded or followed by another quarter of negative growth averaging a decline of over 2%. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our full suite of research and interactive tools.