The Closer — 20 Percent Of Anything Is A Lot! — 4/24/17

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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look at what a cut in the corporate tax rate would mean in practice relative to the size of the economy and the current deficit. We also take a look back at the impact the last government shutdown had on economic data.

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Bespoke’s Q1 Interactive Earnings Season Calendar — 4/24/17

ecalIt’s difficult enough to stay on top of the earnings release dates for stocks in your portfolios, but figuring out what to do with a stock both before and right after it reports earnings is a whole different story.  If you’re looking for top-level earnings season analysis, Bespoke’s paid research product is the place to get it.

With earnings season underway, now is the perfect time to try out Bespoke’s subscription product.  The first thing you’ll want to do once you sign up is download our Q1 Interactive Earnings Season Calendar, which provides the upcoming report dates for all US companies set to release numbers this season.  Our earnings calendar also includes a number of other data points to help guide investors through earnings season.

Download our Interactive Earnings Season Calendar by starting a 14-day free research trial now!

Nasdaq Closes in on a Milestone

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The Nasdaq Composite index is quickly closing in on a major milestone, the likes of which it hasn’t seen in over 15 years.  At a level of 5,985 this afternoon, the index is just fifteen points from a first-time crossing of a 1,000 point threshold.  The table below lists each prior thousand point level that the Nasdaq has crossed over time, along with how many times it crossed each level (on a closing basis) to both the upside and downside. After first crossing above 5,000 back in March 2000, the Nasdaq has gone more than seventeen years without crossing another 1,000 point milestone.  What makes this drought even crazier is that the amount of time it took the Nasdaq to first cross 1K, 2K, 3K, 4K, and 5K (1,697 calendar days) was less than a third of the 6,255 days that have transpired since that first close above 5K.  In other words, from July 1995 through March 2000, the Nasdaq quintupled in less than a third of the amount of time that it has since taken to advance 20%!

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The chart below shows each of the dates that the Nasdaq first crossed every 1,000 point level from 1,000 through 5,000.  As shown, some of these milestones came and went quickly. Back in late 1999, the Nasdaq rallied 33% from 3,000 to 4,000 in the span of less than two months.  Then, as an encore, it spiked another 25% in just over two months.  What’s even more amazing about these huge moves in such short periods of time is that, at the time, people actually thought it was perfectly normal!

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France, Germany Test Multi-Year Highs

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France’s CAC 40 (it’s most widely followed equity index) gained 4.14% today (in local currency), which was its biggest one-day gain since August 2015.  Below is a chart of the CAC 40 over the last four years.  While the index was set to close at a new 4-year high today when we got into the office early this morning, it actually closed the day at 5,268.86, which is just 0.05 points below its closing high of 5,268.91 reached on April 27th, 2015!  French investors will have to wait at least one more day for a new closing high.

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While the French equity market is just a hair off four-year highs, it’s still well below its high seen during the last two bull markets.  Below is a chart of the CAC 40 going back to 1990.  The all-time high for France was back in 2000, and its second highest point came at the end of the mid-oughts bull market just before the Global Financial Crisis.

One thing that the current rally has done is break a series of “lower highs” that the CAC had been stuck in.  We’ve drawn a trend-line in the chart below so you can see the break, which is a positive if you follow market technicals.

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Ironically, while France’s equity market didn’t quite close at a new multi-year high today, Germany’s market did.  In fact, it was a new all-time high for the DAX, which rallied 3.37% on the day, and provides another ilustration of how Germany has been the biggest beneficiary of the single-currency union.  Below is a chart of the DAX going back to 1990.  While France is still 23% below its all-time high from the year 2000, Germany is up 54% since that same point in time.

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Bespoke’s Asset Class Performance Matrix — 4/24/17

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European equity markets surged today on the back of the first round of the French elections on Sunday, April 23rd.  Below is a look at Bespoke’s Asset Class Performance Matrix.  The matrix shows the total return performance of various ETFs across financial markets over three time periods.  In this matrix, our time periods of reference are today (4/24), since President Trump’s Inauguration on January 20th, and year-to-date for 2017.

The left side of the matrix contains mostly US equity ETFs, while the right side contains international equity markets, commodities, and fixed income ETFs.  As you can see, European equity markets like France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP) have exploded higher today by more than 4%.  Notably, though, the China equity market ETF (ASHR) is in the red as regulators crack down on speculative trading.

Year-to-date, Spain’s equity market (EWP) is up more than any other ETF in our matrix.  It’s also the only ETF up more than 20% YTD.

In the US, the Financial sector (XLF) is the clear outperformer today, but it’s still one of the weaker sectors year-to-date.  Technology (XLK) remains in the top spot YTD with a gain of 11.40%, while Energy (XLE) is the biggest loser with a drop of 9.12%.

Commodities are in the red across the board today.  Year-to-date, the broad commodities ETF (DBC) is down 5.81%, but it would be down much more if it weren’t for the precious metals, which are up 10%+.

Finally, fixed income ETFs are pulling back a bit today as investors shift into riskier assets.  Even still, though, they all remain in the black year-to-date.

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Bespoke Co-Founders Paul Hickey and Justin Walters Featured in Barron’s

If you missed our interview in Barron’s this past weekend, be sure to pick up a copy at your local newsstand or view it online here (Barron’s log-in required).  In the interview with Leslie Norton (thanks Leslie!), we reminisced about the 10 years that have passed since we founded Bespoke back in May 2007.  We also discussed our current thoughts on financial markets and provided three long ideas and two stocks to “avoid.”

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ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 4/24/17

European equity ETFs have surged with the favorable resort from the French election last night. Banks, Turkey, and US small cap ETFs have also been some of the most impressive beneficiaries. Weaker ETFs can be found in oil-related products, oil service companies, silver, and broader commodity indices.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

Bespoke CNBC Appearance (4/24)

Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box today (4/24) to discuss markets and their reaction to the French election and potential tax reform proposals. To view the segment, please click on the image below.

To receive Bespoke analysis and commentary directly into your inbox, start a 14-day free trial today.

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Bespoke Morning Lineup

Highlights

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the top pre-market report on Wall Street.  We cover everything you need to know to get your trading day started, including international market moves and events, post-market and pre-market earnings news, upgrades and downgrades, dividends and splits, economic indicators and estimates, big stock movers, market internals and much more.  It’s all presented in the original and concise format that Bespoke is known for so you can digest lots of information quickly and efficiently.

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See all of today’s Morning Lineup by starting a free trial to Bespoke’s paid research.  No credit card is required.

Bespokecast Episode 10 — Josh Brown — Now Available on iTunes, GooglePlay, Stitcher and More

RB1We’re happy to announce that the newest episode of Bespokecast is now available to the general public both here and via the various podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe to Bespokecast on your preferred podcast app to gain access to our full collection of episodes.  We’d also love for you to provide a review as well!

In our newest conversation on Bespokecast, we spoke to Josh Brown, the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management.  Josh is a contributor on CNBC’s daily show Fast Money Halftime Report, has written two books about the financial markets, regularly writes on his blog The Reformed Broker, and has a huge following on Twitter.  Our conversation was wide-ranging, covering the start of Josh’s career at traditional brokerages on Wall Street, his epiphany about how the financial industry works, the evolution of the Ritholtz platform, and the best way to handle social media.  A life-long resident of the Tri-City Area, we also talked about New York City and the beleaguered Knicks franchise.  This was a fantastic conversation, and we had a great time talking to Josh.  We hope you enjoy listening!

Each new episode of our podcast features a special guest to talk markets with, and Bespoke subscribers receive special access before it’s made available to the general public.  If you’d like to try out a Bespoke subscription in order to gain access to these podcasts in advance, you can start a two-week free trial to check out our product.  To listen to episode 10 or subscribe to the podcast via iTunes, GooglePlay, OvercastFM, or Stitcher, please click below.

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