Fixed Income Weekly – 3/20/19

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.

In this week’s report we discusses the unusual term structure of US interest rates at the front of the curve, relative to the rest of the world.


Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

FOMC: Fishing, Hiking, or Whitewater Rafting?

With the FOMC wrapping up its two-day policy meeting today and the market pricing in as near a certainty as it can that there will be no change in rates, the committee is either gearing up for a big surprise to the markets when it releases its 2PM statement today or doing a whole lot of nothing trying to fill the time.  Not only today, but for the next several meetings, market expectations for Fed policy anticipate little in the way of movement for the Fed Funds rate.  The market is currently pricing in no chance of a rate hike between now and the September meeting and an 18% chance of a rate cut.  If the market is right (which isn’t always the case), the FOMC will have to find things to do to fill the time at the next few meetings.  Maybe they can nail down plans for the late August KC Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.  While there’s obviously no skiing in August, it’s hard to match the fishing, hiking, and whitewater rafting at that time of year!

FAANG Chart Update

Below is a snapshot of the five FAANG price charts from our Chart Scanner tool that’s available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.  Each stock has its own unique set up right now.

Apple (AAPL) has gone from $140 to $185 in less than 3 months, but the move still hasn’t pushed the stock above resistance at its 200-day moving average.  Traders will be watching AAPL closely over the next few days ahead of next week’s product event to see if this resistance can be broken.

Amazon (AMZN) had been trading in a tight sideways range since early 2019, but gains this week have finally caused shares to break out of this range to the upside.  That’s a bullish move.

Facebook (FB) has gone in the opposite direction as AMZN over the last five trading days, breaking below its 200-day moving average and testing support at its 50-day moving average.  So far the 50-day has held for FB.

Alphabet (GOOGL) has made a series of higher highs and higher lows since the end of 2018, and gains over the last week have pushed the stock up near six-month highs.  The stock is currently trading right at $1,200/share, and it needs another $100 to test all-time highs made in mid-2018.

Finally, Netflix (NFLX) shares shot out of the gate at the start of the post-Christmas rally, but the stock has been consolidating in a relatively tight range over the last couple of months with a slight bias higher.  It looks like NFLX will probably remain in this range until it reports earnings on April 16th.  As one of the most volatile stocks on earnings in the entire US market, chances are the stock will break out of its tight range either to the upside or the downside following its next earnings report.

Start using our popular Chart Scanner tool now with a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium!

BRICs Build on Gains

Below is a snapshot of the four BRIC country ETFs from our Chart Scanner tool that’s available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.  As you can see, all four countries have been trending higher this year, with China (ASHR) and India (PIN) experiencing the sharpest moves.  Both are currently very extended above their moving averages, and investors will be watching whether they can hold above support within their long-term uptrend channels when the inevitable mean reversion occurs.

Brazil (EWZ) is also in a nice long-term uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows being made over the last six months.  EWZ is not nearly as extended to the upside as ASHR or PIN, so for someone looking to enter into these markets, Brazil looks more attractive right now.  Russia (RSX) struggled a bit in early March, but it has seen a huge gain over the last few trading days to put it back up near six-month highs.

Start using our popular Chart Scanner tool now with a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium!

Trend Analyzer – 3/20/19 – Nasdaq Leads

Below is a snapshot of US index ETFs pulled from our popular Trend Analyzer tool.  Every ETF listed is up more than 10% YTD, and every one is above its 50-day moving average as well.  Our proprietary “Trend” rating shows that they’re all in sideways trends, but they should start to flip to uptrends if the market can push a little higher over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is the most overbought of the bunch, followed by the large-cap S&P 100 (OEF).  The Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) is the closest to its 50-day moving average.

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 3/20/19

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world.  For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates.  The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation.  It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy.  The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management.  It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.

You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!

Morning Lineup – All Quiet Ahead of the FOMC

Not a lot going on in US markets with respect to headlines (besides FedEx’s big earnings disappointment) ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting where the committee is also expected to do nothing.  Whenever we find ourselves in these types of “not a lot going on” situations, though, the market always finds a way to surprise everyone, so we’ll watch and wait.

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/20/19

As noted in this morning’s report, data released by the Semiconductor Industry Association showed the fastest decline in global semiconductor sales on a 3m/3m basis since April of 2009. The 20% annualized rate of decline for nominal semis sales is consistent with global manufacturing PMI around 49 (versus 50.6 in February data). Declines are broad across various regions.

While sales rates have been in decline, the rebound in semi stocks has been anything but “semi.”  We’ve been highlighting the relative strength of a sector frequently, and most recently in last week’s Bespoke Report, but even yesterday when the market started to sell off in the afternoon (blue line), semiconductor stocks held up very well as evidenced by the rising relative strength versus the S&P 500 (gray line).

Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium to see today’s full Morning Lineup report. You’ll receive it in your inbox each morning an hour before the open to get your trading day started.


The Closer — Worrying and Wondering — 3/19/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision out of the Fed, we begin tonight’s Closer with a look at interest rates as seen through the 3 month LIBOR and overnight index swaps.  We also take a brief look at the movement in industrial metals to see what this could say about the global economy.  Next, we provide an update of our Beige Book index which has collapsed recently.  We then turn to Europe which has seen credit markets lagging versus their US counterparts.  With the banking sector being in part to blame for this, we finish with a look at the status of Non-performing loans in the Eurozone.

See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

B.I.G. Tips – Fed Days March 2019

The S&P 500’s gain of 1.55% on the January 30th Fed Day ended a streak of 18 consecutive Fed Days without a 1%+ gain for the index.  The gain also ended a 7 Fed Day streak of declines for the S&P 500 dating back to the start of Chair Powell’s tenure.  Both streaks were the longest on record dating back to 1994 when the Fed began announcing its policy decisions on the same day as its meeting.  We’ve just published a B.I.G. Tips report covering the topics you need to know ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting.  To gain access to the full report, please start a two-week free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now.  Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.

Morning Lineup – Rising Tide on Both Sides of the Atlantic

It is a very positive tone for European equities and US futures this morning as the S&P 500 is indicated to open up half of one percent as it continues to follow through from Friday’s close above resistance.  There’s not a lot of economic data to speak of today, but the FOMC is set to begin a two-day meeting.  With virtually zero chance of a hike or even a cut in rates at this meeting or in the next few, they may have trouble finding things to talk about for the next two days!

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/19/19

With the S&P 500 down just over 3% from its all-time high and tomorrow marking the six-month anniversary since the last time the index closed at an all-time high, the current period is just the fifth time since the March 2009 low that the index has gone six months or more without closing at post-financial crisis high.  It also marks just the sixth time that the index has gone more than 100 trading days without hitting a new high.

In the chart below, we highlight the S&P 500’s path since the March 2009 lows and show each of the 100+ trading day droughts without a new high in red.  The current period, which will extend to 122 trading days today, has been unique as it came just 19 trading days after a 145 trading day drought that spanned late January to August of 2018.  When the S&P 500 finally broke out to new highs last August, bulls were probably not expecting such a ‘lame’ breakout as the difference between the September high and the high from earlier in January was barely more than 2%.  The only period that was similar was from 2011 through 2012 where a 206 trading day streak without a new high and a 108-day streak were separated by just 22 trading days and a rally of less than 4%.

Those two examples just mentioned are where the S&P 500 saw the smallest rallies following a drought of 100+ trading days without a new high.  The other three periods, however, were a lot more palatable for bulls as the S&P 500 rallied an additional 12% through May 2011 after breaking the 135-day drought in November 2010, an additional 50% through May 2015 after breaking the 108-day drought in September 2012, and an additional 33% through January 2018 after breaking the 285 trading day drought in July 2016.

Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium to see today’s full Morning Lineup report. You’ll receive it in your inbox each morning an hour before the open to get your trading day started.


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