Historic End to a Down Month
It was a rough finish to the month of April. Not only did the S&P 500 (SPY) finish the month with an 8.78% decline month to date, the biggest one-month decline since March 2020, but the last trading day of the month was one for the record books. Since SPY began trading in 1993, the only bigger drop on the final trading day of the month was in August 1998. Back then it was a much larger 7.13% decline.
In the table below, we show all months since 1993 that SPY declined at least 2% on the last trading day of a month. Behind April, the next worst final day of a month and the only other month with an over 3% decline was September 1998, but back then, SPY had still managed to finish up MTD. Finishing up MTD has been the exception rather than the rule of these occurrences, though, as November 1998 and October 2011 were the only other times that SPY fell over 2% on the last trading day of the month but still finished with a MTD gain.
As for where the S&P 500 has typically gone from there, the first trading day of the new month has only seen a move higher 46% of the time as the index has averaged a 30 bps decline. For the full month, though, performance is generally more positive with an average gain of 2.75% and positive returns almost 70% of the time. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
The Bespoke Report – 4/29/22 – Is That Blood in the Streets?
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An appointment for a root canal has sounded better than having to watch this stock market lately. Just when you think things can’t get any worse in this market, they do, as every bounce has been quickly repudiated with stocks grinding down to new lows for the year.
It’s never a good feeling when equities close out the week at their lows, but we’ve now had that happen two weeks in a row. The S&P 500 has now declined at least 1% for four straight weeks while the Nasdaq has been down at least 2.5% for four straight weeks. Since 1971, there have only been four other times where the Nasdaq experienced a similar streak, so this kind of persistent weakness doesn’t occur very often.
When the markets start acting like this, it’s incredibly difficult to make any sense of the day-to-day moves, so for us or anyone to say anything about what to expect in the short-term would be foolish. Long-term investors have experienced worse and the market will eventually turn, but until it does, that root canal doesn’t look all that bad.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/29/22
Amazon (AMZN) Shares Now Barely Up Post-COVID
Amazon (AMZN) was one of the primary beneficiaries of the pandemic as consumers were forced to engage in commerce digitally and corporations became increasingly willing to migrate to the cloud. In the first year or so after the March 2020 COVID Crash, AMZN shares soared from $2,000 up to $3,700. Since peaking in mid-2021, however, it has been a different story. Since AMZN reported earnings last night, shares have fallen another 15%. This leaves AMZN up just 13.5% from the level it was trading at right before the pandemic began on 2/19/20.
Although the stock is now barely higher versus pre-COVID levels, revenues continue to climb. Relative to pre-pandemic levels, trailing 12-month revenues have increased by 70.3% (CAGR of 27.2%). As implied, the price to sales multiple has compressed considerably relative to pre-pandemic levels. At the highs, AMZN was trading 3.8 times sales. The highest P/S multiple for the stock since the start of 2020 occurred in September of 2020, when the multiple hit 5.5. As it currently stands, the price to sales multiple is at new lows relative to the start of 2020 at just 2.7.
While AMZN revenues are up 70% from pre-COVID levels, margins have compressed considerably. In Q1 2020, AMZN posted operating margins of 9.5%. In Q1 2022, AMZN reported operating margins of 3.2%. These results can be attributed to inflationary pressures, labor challenges, supply chain constraints and foreign exchange headwinds. As you can see in the chart below, margin compression has hampered EPS, resulting in a decline in trailing 12-month EPS over the last three quarters. Relative to pre-pandemic levels, EPS have risen by 52.5% (CAGR: 21.1%), but they’ve declined by 38.8% over the last three quarters. Click here to become a Bespoke Institutional subscriber and gain access to our Conference Call Recaps.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/29/22 – Amazon Fails to Deliver
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Bespoke’s Quote of the Day: “Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” – Warren Buffett
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
It’s not looking like a positive close to the week with futures solidly in the red following negative reactions to earnings from Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL). With the Fed announcement looming next week, investors are likely to be a bit apprehensive ahead of the meeting.
In terms of economic data, the week is closing off on a busy note. Employment Cost Index for Q1 came in much higher than expected at 1.4% compared to forecasts for an increase of 1.1%, and it was the highest level since at least the mid-1990s. Personal Income and Personal Spending also topped expectations. Still upcoming, we’ll get an update of Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Michigan Sentiment at 10 AM.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap overnight events in Asia and Europe (pg 4), inflation in Europe (pg 5), and prior quarters whereAMZN gapped down sharply in reaction to earnings (pg 5).
It’s been quite a week for US stocks. While both the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) made marginal new lows this week, the S&P 500 (SPY) managed to hang on to its lows from earlier this year. The fact that equities were quick to bounce following those breakdowns was encouraging, but with futures in the red to kick off the last trading day of the month, these will be critical levels to watch throughout the day.
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 4/28/22
The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 4/28/22
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday unless otherwise noted. There was one change to the list this week.
The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription. You can learn more about our subscription offerings at our Membership Options page, or simply start a two-week trial at our sign-up page.
The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning each week. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Chart of the Day: Historically Bearish Investor Sentiment
Meta (FB) Intraday Performance Following Strong Earnings
Yesterday, Meta Platforms (FB) reported earnings. In the report, the company noted a sequential rise in both daily and monthly active users in every region apart from Europe, which can be attributed to the effects of the war in Ukraine. This gave investors a sigh of relief, sending shares up over 14% in premarket trading.
FB has gapped higher by 5%+ in reaction to earnings fourteen times since its IPO. Historically, when this occurs, the stock’s performance from the open and close has been modestly positive, booking gains 57% of the time. The average performance was a gain of 64 basis points (median: 80 bps). The worst intraday performance came in 2014 when the stock traded down by 2.0% percentage points intraday after gapping up 16.05%. On the other hand, the best intraday performance in these time periods occurred in 2018, when the stock gained 4.5% after gapping up 6.0% at the open.
Today marks the fourth-best opening gap since FB went public. This is particularly interesting, as the y/y revenue growth rate in this quarter was the slowest seen since the company went public in 2012. Notably, the opening gap does not seem to be a determining factor for the opening to close performance. As you can see from the chart below, only 3.9% of the variation in the open to close performance can be explained by the size of the opening gap (for 5%+ opening gap gains on earnings). Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/28/22 – GD-Negative
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Bespoke’s Quote of the Day: “Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” – Steve Jobs
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
Wouldn’t you just love to be on the Fed right now? As the FOMC is in the early stages of what is expected to be its most aggressive rate hiking cycle since the early 1980s, the first read on Q1 GDP not only came in weaker than expected but it actually declined more than 1.4%. Whether or not they put themselves in this position in the first place or not, we don’t envy the place they are in now. Other economic data this morning was mixed. Personal Consumption came in weaker than expected (2.7% vs 3.5%) while the GDP Price Index rose more than expected (8.0% vs. 7.2%). Jobless claims were right in line on an initial basis but came in ever so slightly higher than expected on a continuing basis.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap overnight events in Asia and Europe (pg 4), take a look at the collapse in the yen (pg 4), sentiment in Europe (pg 5), and then a look at 2%+ gaps higher in the Nasdaq 100.
Many of you liked it the last time we did it, so this morning we are bringing back our little game to test your chart reading abilities and see how good of a technical analyst you are. Take a look at the chart below. It’s a one-year stock chart of a US company in the period spanning August 2020 through August 2021. Looking only at the chart pattern do you think the stock was higher or lower six months later? Make a decision and click on one of the buttons below to find out if you picked the right trade (the answer will appear in a new window). Good luck!
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