Jun 5, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Here comes the big jobs report! Looking at where futures are trading, though, investors don’t seem all that concerned as the S&P 500 is indicated higher by about 0.8%. The re-opening stocks are once again flying today, led by the airlines. Based on where it is trading this morning, the Airlines ETF (JETS) is up 40% on the week. On the WEEK!
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, European markets, economic data out of Germany, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
The chart below is from the second page of our Morning Lineup and shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 versus long-term US treasuries. When the line is rising, it indicates that equities are outperforming bonds and vice versa when it’s declining. From the S&P 500 peak in February to the lows in March, equities were crushed and long-term treasuries surged as yields dropped to record lows. Since then, we’ve seen a steady uptick in the relative strength of equities relative to bonds, but that pace has really accelerated this week to the point where equities are almost back to outperforming bonds on a trailing one-year basis.
As of this morning, SPY is up over 3% on the week while the long-term treasury ETF (TLT) is down over 5%. While we saw wider 5-day performance gaps as recently as March, for a period where volatility has been relatively restrained, this is a wide gap.
Jun 4, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Markets had gotten a boost this morning following the ECB’s decision to nearly double the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program from 750 billion euros up to 1.350 trillion euros. While former US Senator Everett Dirksen is famously quoted as saying “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you’re talking real money.” These days, trillions are the new billions as global central banks continue to flood financial markets with liquidity.
Although central bank liquidity has acted as a support, economic data released this morning was mixed. Initial Jobless Claims dropped week/week again but came in higher than expected. Continuing Claims, however, weren’t as strong. Not only were they higher than expected, but they also increased on a week/week basis. In reaction to the data, some of the post ECB gains were erased.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, European markets, economic data out of Sweden, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
This rally continues to amaze just about everyone, and yesterday we saw some encouraging signs regarding its durability. The latest example is the continued outperformance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) which rallied 2% for the second day in a row. At yesterday’s closing level, the SOX has only closed higher six other times in its history!
Jun 3, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Futures are indicated higher, setting the stage for a 7th daily gain in the last 8 sessions. Futures were already higher, but the May ADP Private Payrolls report which came in much less bad than expected (-2.76 million vs 9.0 million consensus estimate).
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, surging mortgage applications, the latest round of Service sector PMIs, news in global markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
After underperforming in a big way for most of 2020 (and even longer than that), European equities have gotten a big boost in recent days, aided in part by the weaker dollar. The relative strength of Europe’s STOXX 600 in dollar adjusted terms has shown signs of life versus the S&P 500 and appears to have broken its short-term downtrend. That’s a trend to watch in the coming weeks as Europe is ahead of the US in terms of re-opening, and last week’s announced collective fiscal relief plan for member countries suggests more cohesion within the bloc.
On a short-term basis, European equities have looked more attractive, but a long-term picture shows a much different picture. Here, the recent strength off the May lows isn’t even visible. In other words, Europe still has quite a hole to dig itself out of. But hey, you have to start somewhere!
Jun 2, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
t’s hard to say there was much in the way of good news. Civil unrest continued to rage in cities across the US overnight, although the magnitude of looting and violence that accompanied some of the peaceful protests didn’t appear to be as severe. Despite the negative headlines, though, US futures are indicated higher again and on pace for the 6th positive day in the last seven.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, the civil unrest in the US, news in global markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
We’re starting to run out of ways to show how strong breadth has been in recent weeks and how much of an about-face we have seen in the last 50 trading days, but this morning we’ll give you one more. First, the percentage of S&P 500 Industry Groups currently above their 50-day moving averages currently sits at 100%. You can’t get any higher than that! Second, not only is every S&P 500 Industry Group above its 50-DMA, but all of their 50-DMA are also rising as well. Both of these readings were 0% less than three months ago!
Jun 1, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Equity markets are pointing to a relatively flat start to the month of June, which despite the ongoing pandemic and protests over the weekend can be considered a win. Futures were actually higher overnight, but reports that China is going to pause agricultural imports halted the rally in its tracks. There’s certainly no shortage of headwinds out there for the market right now, so if you’re looking for a wall of worry to climb, this one is pretty steep.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, news in global markets, the latest batch of Manufacturing PMI readings for May, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
It may sound hard to believe, but with May’s gain, the S&P 500’s total return over the last year is a gain of 12.8%. That’s right. In the midst of the global pandemic and a record decline in economic activity, the S&P 500 has had an above-average year! While the equity market’s one year gain is above average, the two-year return of 8.2% (annualized) is more than two full percentage points below the historical average. Even over the last five years, current returns are still modestly below average (so much for that near-record bull market). Over a ten-year window, market returns have been pretty strong (13.2% vs 10.4%), but over a 20-year time frame, returns remain extremely depressed. At just 5.9%, annualized, the S&P 500’s average return is only a little better than half the long-term average 20-year return.
May 29, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Futures are only modestly lower this morning, but that’s not for a lack of negative headlines. Between the conflict with China, the fight between Twitter and the President, and protests and disorder in Minneapolis, there’s no shortage of cross currents.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, news in global markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
This morning, we wanted to provide a quick update on market breadth to close out the week. Ever since the peak in February, breadth and prices had been tracking each other pretty closely, although breadth has been lagging price a bit off the lows. After several short-term highs where breadth didn’t confirm the high, though, on Wednesday, the cumulative A/D line for the S&P 500 finally confirmed the rally in prices with a post 3/23 high.
