May 28, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
As shown on the first page of our Morning Lineup today, there has been a ton of economic data to contend with, so we won’t go over it all here. The key (and most timely) report we would highlight is jobless claims. This morning’s reading came in at 2.123 million, which was a bit higher than expectations (2.1 million) but down from last week. In no means do we want to sugarcoat this report; 2 million claims is a ridiculously high number. We can take some solace in the fact that claims are moving in the right direction, though. This week’s reading was the 8th straight w/w decline, which is the longest such streak of declines on record (going back to 1962).
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, news in global markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
In a post yesterday, we highlighted the fact that there were only four stocks in the entire S&P 500 that were more than 5% below their 50-day moving average. With so few stocks below their 50-DMA that also leaves a limited supply of candidates to be oversold (more than 1 standard deviation below their 50-DMA), and as of yesterday’s close, there were actually zero stocks in the S&P 500 that were trading at oversold levels. That is not only the first time in at least a year that there were no oversold stocks in the S&P 500, but based on a quick scan of our database going back to 2007, there has never been another time when no stocks in the S&P 500 were oversold. Conversely, the last time more than 70% of stocks in the S&P 500 were overbought (as is the case now), was back in February 2019.
May 27, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Concerns yesterday afternoon regarding tensions between the US and China have disappeared this morning, and US equity futures have bounced back following Tuesday’s last hour decline. Also helping sentiment this morning is a proposed 750 billion Euro recovery fund for member nations and reports that the Japanese government is also considering an additional $1.1 trillion in stimulus.
Airlines, cruises, and other groups hit especially hard from the COVID outbreak are surging this morning with the airlines ETF (JETS) up over 8% and the cruise operators all up over 10%.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, news in global markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
After taking into account this morning’s rally in equity futures, the S&P 500 is up over 3.5% month to date- a good month by just about every account. One part of the day where strength has been lacking, though, is the last hour of trading. Yesterday, was a prime example. What was a gain of well over 2% earlier in the day turned into only a little more than 1% by the closing bell as a late-day decline negated what would have been the S&P 500’s first close above its 200-DMA in over ten weeks.
We covered this issue in more detail in last week’s Bespoke Report, but yesterday’s intraday chart provides a good example. What was an impressive rally for the market, looked a lot less so by the end of the day and the S&P 500 ultimately was unable to close above its 200-DMA yesterday. Today it will have another chance. All we need is a strong finish- something that has been far from automatic this month.
May 26, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
You couldn’t ask for a better way to start the unofficial Summer trading season. The S&P 500 is poised to trade back above its 200-day moving average for the first time in weeks. That may sound like an optimistic trend, but as we noted in the text of today’s report, we were surprised to find that it isn’t always the most positive short-term (week and month) trend for equities.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, news in global markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
The S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) is on pace to gap up over 1.8% this morning. In the history dating back to 1993, this will be SPY’s 279th 1%+ upside gap and the 62nd occurrence on a Tuesday. The table below shows the performance of the ETF, broken out by weekday, from the open to close on days when it opens up by at least 1%. Tuesday upside gaps of 1%+ have been followed by an average open to close gain of 0.34% with positive returns just under 59% of the time. In terms of the average change, this ranks as the second-best weekday behind Wednesday (0.43%), and in terms of consistency it ranks as the third-best behind Wednesday and Friday.
Today’s upside gap is also notable in that it is just the 11th 1%+ upside gap following a three-day weekend. It may sound pretty hard to believe, but the last time SPY gapped up more than 1% after a three-day weekend was more than four years ago in February 2016.
In the 10 prior instances where SPY gapped up more than 1% after a three-day weekend, it averaged a rest of day gain of 0.31% (median: 0.16%) with positive returns half of the time. So, basically it was a coinflip.
May 22, 2020
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It wasn’t looking like a positive end to the week for equities, but futures have bounced in the last hour or so, and are now pointing to a flat to slightly positive open. The data calendar is quiet this morning, and barring any major headlines, trading is likely to slow down as the day progresses heading into the holiday weekend.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, news in global markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
New laws from China related to curtailing civil liberties in Hong Kong have raised concerns over a new round of protests in the region, and the result was a steep sell-off in Hong Kong stocks overnight. The benchmark Hang Seng (HSI) fell over 5.5% for its weakest one-day decline since 7/8/15. Since 2000, last night’s decline was the 24th time since 2000 that the Hang Seng (HSI) dropped more than 5% in a single session. Following those 23 prior occurrences, the HSI saw an average gain of 1.2% (median: 1.7%) the following day with positive returns 70% of the time. While the HSI tended to bounce back a bit the following day, the average change over the following month wasn’t nearly as strong with an average and median decline of -0.2% and positive returns less than half of the time (48%).
For the here and now, last night’s decline in the HSI was a bit discouraging as the index broke down after several failed attempts to break above short-term resistance.
May 21, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
In a busy day for economic data, Philly Fed, Initial Jobless Claims, and Continuing Claims have all been released so far and all three missed expectations. Still on the calendar, we have preliminary Markit PMI data, Leading Indicators, and Existing Home Sales. Futures were moderately lower early on, but have actually started to pick up steam in the aftermath of the data.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, the latest news in global markets, preliminary PMI data, the latest global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Yesterday was a strong day for semis as the group broke above short-term resistance and also into the gap from its decline on 2/24 when it gapped down below its 200-DMA. Semis the ‘Transports of the 21st Century and strength from this sector is an encouraging trend for the broader market.
May 20, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
No sooner than the S&P 500 saw a disheartening sell-off to close out the day on Tuesday, futures are indicating a strong open this morning which would essentially erase all of the declines from the last hour yesterday. In our just-published Chart of the Day, we looked at prior periods where the S&P 500 declined 0.75% or more in the last half hour of one day only to rally 0.75%+ in the first 15 minutes of the following day. Today’s reversal also marks the 5th time this year that we have seen this type of reversal. Check out the entire report by signing up today.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, earnings from some of the nation’s largest retailers, the latest global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Sell in May? Maybe not yet. The image below is from our interactive Seasonality tool and shows the S&P 500’s median performance over the next week, month, and three months based on historical returns over the last ten years. Historically, the S&P 500 has seen a median gain of 0.87% from the close on 5/20 through 5/27 which ranks in the 80th percentile of all one-week periods throughout the year. For the next month, the median return increases to 2.42% which ranks in the 84th percentile. While short-term returns have been solid, the S&P 500’s median return from the close on 5/20 through 8/20 has been a gain of 1.97% which ranks in just the 38th percentile. Maybe it’s better to wait until June.
