Jun 15, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Ahe week isn’t starting off on a positive note for bulls as the S&P 500 is on pace to open the day with a decline of over 2%. After a 40% rally off the lows, investors are reassessing where the markets stand relative to the pace of economic growth and the potential of a wider outbreak across the country. While equities have come a long way and may have gotten ahead of themselves in terms of short-term fundamentals, trends in the coronavirus outbreak haven’t materially changed in the last few weeks. The only difference is that they have attracted more headlines.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, moves in overseas markets, economic data out of China, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Last week was a nasty one for the major US equity indices. With declines in the range of 8% or more in the small-cap space to a drop of 1.59% for the Nasdaq 100, all of the major index ETFs we track in our Trend Analyzer were down on the week. While the week started out with every index at either overbought or ‘extreme’ overbought levels, by the end, every single one of them besides QQQ finished the week in neutral territory relative to their trading range and neutral in terms of their short-term timing scores. Concerns over an acceleration in the virus outbreak have clearly weighed on sentiment as of late, and how this week plays out will go a long way in determining how the summer is going to play out.
Jun 12, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
After a downright horrible day for risk assets on Thursday, bulls are trying to close out the week on a high note with the S&P 500 indicated to open up by nearly 2%. The only economic data of note is Import Prices and Michigan Sentiment. Other than that, it looks like investors will be paying close attention to the latest COVID trends heading into the weekend.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, moves in overseas markets, an audacious move from Hertz to try and issue more equity to fund its bankruptcy, the latest Industrial Production numbers from the Eurozone, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
One result of yesterday’s rout in the equity market is that not a single major US index is up over the last five trading days, and every single one of them has moved out of overbought territory. Even the Nasdaq 100, is down fractionally!
Jun 11, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Markets have seemingly been moving in one direction for the last several weeks, but today are getting a dose of reality on concerns over the pace of the economic rebound and whether it will be derailed by a new surge in cases around the country. No one said the recovery would be a smooth one.
If the current pace of declines holds, today will be the first 1% decline at the open for SPY since May 1st, and the 7th since the March 23rd low. If those prior periods are any indication, don’t look for much in the way of a rebound. In the six prior occurrences, the S&P 500 continued lower from the open to close four out of six times.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, moves in overseas markets, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more. In today’s report, we have also started to include data on state by state trends in hospitalizations.
In yesterday’s Chart of the Day, we highlighted the strong performance of large-cap tech as measured by the FANG+ Index over the four weeks. This morning we wanted to highlight the recent strength in another way by noting that yesterday’s rally was the fourth straight day where the FANG+ Index rallied 1% or more. As indicated by the red dots in the chart below, that’s only happened four other times in the index’s history dating back to 2014.
Jun 10, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
After a relatively large dip lower right around the time Europe opened for trading, today was looking like it was going to be some sort of repeat of Tuesday’s action when pre-market gains in the futures were erased after Europe opened. At their 6:00 AM eastern lows, futures were down over 1% from their overnight highs, but since then they have rallied back more than 0.70% and firmly back in positive territory. The initial cause of the dip was a report from the OECD that estimated global growth would decline 6.0% this year and even more if a strong second wave of the virus emerges in the Fall and Winter. Tell us something we don’t know.
CPI for May was just released and while economists were expecting both the headline and core readings to come in unchanged versus April, they both showed a 0.1% m/m decline.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, the rally in iron ore and copper, credit creation data in China, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
We’ve been highlighting the trend for a couple of weeks now, most recently in last Friday’s Bespoke Report, but mortgage purchase applications continue to rip higher. The latest figures released this morning confirmed that trend as overall applications increased 9.3% while purchase applications increased 5.3%.
With this past week’s increase, purchase applications have now increased for a record eight straight weeks. Even more impressive is the fact, that the index for purchase applications is just a whisker below the 10+ year high of 313.7 from back in January. Historically low rates are fueling what looks like an extremely strong housing market.
Jun 9, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
What always seems like a great idea late one night, rarely looks good the next morning, and that’s what’s happening for a lot of stocks today. Many low to no quality stocks that were bid sharply higher yesterday, even after rallying to levels they probably had no business trading at, are down sharply this morning. The poster child for the move is Chesapeake, which is trading down over 40% after nearly tripling on Monday. Even with the pre-market declines, though, CHK is up more than 177% from Thursday’s close!
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, European markets, economic data out of Japan, Australia, and Germany, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
With the S&P 500 poised to gap down just under 1%, we screened our database for prior occurrences where the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) gapped down more than half of a percent after trading up more than 1% the prior day. We then broke out those occurrences by the day of the downside gap and calculated SPY’s average open to close performance on those days. Since 1994, there have been a total of 140 prior occurrences that fit the criteria. On those days, the S&P 500 saw an average rest of day decline of 0.08% with positive returns just under half of the time.
When the downside reversal occurred on a Tuesday (20 prior occurrences), the average rest of day performance was only slightly better at -0.06% with gains 45% of the time. While these results don’t provide much in the way of info for a Tuesday, we can at least be thankful the reversal isn’t occurring on a Wednesday or Thursday where rest of day returns have been the weakest. The only day of the week where SPY saw positive rest of day returns on an average basis was Friday (+0.30%).
Jun 8, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Futures are continuing the momentum from last week as the S&P 500 is poised to open up over half of a percent. The key driver this morning? Momentum. There’s literally no data on the economic calendar to speak of and the pace of earnings is at a trickle. Traders are out in full force again bidding up stocks tied to the re-opening trade as the airlines ETF (JETS) is up over 5%, Boeing is up over 8%, and bankrupt Hertz is up 25%. The wackiest move of the day, though, belongs to Chesapeake (CHK). Shares are up nearly 100% in the pre-market after rallying over 75% on Friday. Even after the rally of the last two days, though, CHK is down 90% from its 52-week high more than 99% from its all-time high.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, European markets, the latest Sentix data, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
By all accounts the last week was extraordinary for the stock market. Sure, we’ve seen stronger weeks in the last several months, but they came from levels where prices were down sharply. After what had already been a near-record rally for US stocks in such a short period of time, the gains were only piled on in last week’s rally.
Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, their average gain last week was over 6% and they are now an average of 13.8% above their 50-day moving averages! In our Trend Analyzer tool, we track the OB/OS conditions of 14 different major US index ETFs on a daily basis, and through Friday’s close, last week’s average performance was a gain of 6.5%. The top-performing index ETF on the week was the Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) which rallied just under 12%, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was the weakest performer of the week gaining 2.7%. In any other week, a rally of 2.7% would be a reason to celebrate.
Unfortunately, markets don’t only go in one direction, though, and after the gains we saw last week, all but two of the major index ETFs we track in our Trend Analyzer are now at ‘Extreme Overbought’ levels. That doesn’t mean we necessarily have to go down from here, but it does make the odds for at least a short-term period of consolidation more likely. If you are a long-term investor that would be a good thing.
