The Bespoke Report – Trick or T(h)reat
Talk about a Halloween scare. In a week where the S&P 500 has historically risen 1%, it traded down more than 5% which was its worst one-week performance since the COVID crisis. Even more notable was the fact that it was the worst performance for the S&P 500 in the last full week before a Presidential election on record. At the close on Friday, the S&P 500’s week-to-date decline was nearly twice the decline of the second-worst week in 1932 when the S&P dropped 2.96% in the last full week leading up to the 1932 election of FDR!
It was a very busy week for the market with a traffic jam of worries to contend with. In this week’s Bespoke Report, we give a full recap of everything going on this week and what it means going forward.
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
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The Bespoke Report — Winter Is Here
With COVID surging in the US and across the northern hemisphere, we discuss economic impacts that are already starting to appear in survey data. We also review the week that was in global equity markets, the weakening US dollar, rising interest rates, the extremely strong housing market, and of course earnings. It was a very busy week in the US and Europe this week, featuring reports from a wide range of important companies. We give a full recap, including a breakdown of how COVID-sensitive names have reported before previewing the pre-Halloween economic and earnings slate in this week’s Bespoke Report.
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
To read the report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!
The Bespoke Report — COVID Economy Chugging Along
This content is for members onlyThe Bespoke Report – Go Big or Go Home
The market may abhor uncertainty, but even with an abundance of it, US equities had their best week in months. The health of the President, the progression of COVID, the ultimate outcome of the election, and the status of another round of stimulus are just a few of the issues facing investors right now, but this week the market was able to grin and bear it and push higher.
That wasn’t necessarily the case on Tuesday, though. What was looking like a good day for equities abruptly headed south after the President put the kibosh on hope for a stimulus deal when he tweeted that he had instructed “representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win.” With that, the S&P 500 erased a 0.5% intraday gain and finished the day down over 1%. While the reversal was scary to watch, as we noted in our Morning Lineup on Wednesday, “while it’s often tempting to read into these types of late-day sell-offs as an early ‘tell’ for further market weakness, the summary results don’t bear that out.” By the close on Wednesday, the S&P 500 had erased all of Tuesday’s losses, only adding to those gains on Thursday and Friday.
Part of the reason for the recovery in equity prices was the fact that President Trump backtracked on his comments from Tuesday, and by Friday was tweeting and telling Rush Limbaugh that he wanted to “Go Big” with an even larger stimulus bill than the Democrats were proposing!
Where these stimulus talks end up is anyone’s guess, and we’re not sure anything even gets done, but there’s also a lot more to cover in the markets this week. We just published our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter, which covers all of the major events of the week, including the economy, sentiment, the Covid outbreak, key group performance, and the upcoming earnings season. To read the report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!
The Bespoke Report — October Silly Season
We got a major October surprise to close the week, and it really does feel more like silly season than a surprise. We discuss the implications of the President’s positive COVID test for both markets and the election. Speaking of November’s election, we break down the outlook based on national polling, discuss the Senate and why a split Congress might be a disaster for the prospects of fiscal stimulus, and the growing evidence (including insistence from FOMC officials) that more easing is necessary. That evidence includes this week’s jobs report and the personal income and spending numbers released earlier in the week, both of which we discuss in detail. Seasonality, international markets, co in this week’s Bespoke Report.
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
To read the report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed!