Whether you want to call it a textbook breakout or a blow-off top, the move in bitcoin over the last two days has been something to behold.  Think about it this way.  In the last two days, bitcoin’s price has risen by $3,926 or roughly 20%.  That’s a pretty incredible move even for bitcoin, but it’s even crazier when you consider the fact that at its intraday low in March, bitcoin’s price ($3,914.7) was lower than the gain in the last two trading days!

With bitcoin’s surge in the last two days, the ratio between bitcoin and gold is also making a run for its record high back in late 2017. At current prices, one bitcoin will buy you 12.3 ounces of gold.  That’s still 2.5 ounces below the record high, but as recently as last Friday (12/11), the ratio was less than 10.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.

After last week’s larger than expected 146K increase in jobless claims, economists were expecting to see an improvement this week with claims falling back down to 818K.  Instead, claims unexpectedly moved even higher rising to 885K.  That is the highest print for initial claims since the first week of September’s reading of 893K.  Claims are now up around 169K in the past two weeks, the largest increase since the start of the pandemic.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the picture was slightly better.  Unadjusted claims were actually slightly lower week over week falling down to 935.1K from 956.5K.  Granted, that reading is still elevated at one of the highest levels since late July. Additionally, the current week of the year has typically seen a move lower; in all years since 1967, the 50th week of the year has seen a week over week decline 89% of the time averaging a 40K drop. That means the improvement in the unadjusted number could, to a degree, be chalked up to seasonality.

While unadjusted regular state claims fell, the inclusion of other programs like Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) worsens the overall picture.  Total claims between the two programs rose to 1.390 million from 1.371 million last week which is the highest level of claims since the week of September 18th. Obviously, PUA claims drove that increase as they rose to 40K WoW to 455K.  Like total claims, that is the highest print for PUA claims since September.

Despite last week’s massive increase in initial claims, continuing claims for the week of December 4th (lagged one week to the initial claims data) resumed its move lower falling to 5.508 million. That reversed the prior week’s (November 27th) uptick to 5.781 million, surpassing the pandemic low of 5.527 million from the week of November 20th in the process.

Including all programs adds yet another week of lag meaning the most recent data for all programs is for the last week of November; the same week as the previously mentioned uptick. During that week, not only did regular state programs see a significant increase, but so too did PUA claims which rose back above 9 million.  That was as extension programs like Pandemic Emergency Compensation (PEUC) and Extended Benefits also rose to new respective pandemic highs.  These programs also continue to account for more than a quarter of total claims.  In other words, the uptick in the final week of November was broad across programs resulting in the sum of all programs to rise back above 20 million after just a week below that level.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.

In every month from August through November, NAHB’s reading on homebuilder sentiment came in at record highs. That streak was bound to come to an end eventually, and it happened this month. The December reading released today was expected to decline from a record of 90 down to 88. Instead, the drop was even larger as the index fell to 86.  Although lower, that is still the second-highest reading on record dating back to 1985.

Each of the sub-indices were also lower this month with the declines in the bottom decile of all monthly moves, though again, the indices remain at historically strong levels in the top 1% of all readings.  For the sub-index that tracks present sales, just like the headline number, the four-point decline in December hasn’t done much damage as it was also still the second-highest reading on record.  The indices for future sales and traffic likewise fell an identical four points.  For future sales, the decline only brings it back to where it stood in September and the index for Traffic is at the lowest level since August. Those are the third and fourth highest readings on record, respectively.

The picture also remains strong based on regions in spite of broad declines.  While every region experienced a decline, the West’s was the smallest. Additionally, the index for the West is the highest of the four regions.  The Northeast, on the other hand, has the lowest reading for sentiment, though, it too is in the top 2% of all readings.

Elsewhere in housing data today, the MBA’s weekly mortgage application data showed another uptick in purchase applications.  Purchase apps rose 1.8% week over week, and while still off the highs from the last week of November, purchases are running at the strongest level in over a decade.

Even though this data remains broadly strong, homebuilder stocks have not been reflecting it.  As shown below, the S&P 1500 Homebuilders group has yet to take out its October 15th high, currently trading 11.51% below that level.  Since that high, the index has also fallen below its 50-DMA with multiple failed attempts to move back above. In fact, of the 43 trading days since that high, the group has closed below its 50-DMA on all but 10 days. While that paints a somewhat negative technical picture, on the bright side, the group has yet to make a lower low. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.

Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell yesterday on Monday to discuss the market outlook in a post-vaccine world.  To view the segment, click on the image below.

With today’s close, the VIX has now stuck above 20 for 207 trading days and counting. That marks the fourth-longest streak since the inception of the volatility index, and is approaching the late-1990s and early-2000s record runs. The index was above 20 for 239 trading days through the end of June 1999, and 236 trading days through May 8th, 2003. Of course, from 2008 to December 21st of 2009, the VIX was over 20 for 331 trading days (more than a year).

Surprisingly, the current VIX streak has had an average reading higher than the two longer streaks in 1999 and 2003. The average 32.0 reading over its course so far is second only to the streak recorded over the global financial crisis. It’s also interesting to note that at this stage in the streak (207 trading days), the current run has a higher reading than the three streaks which actually lasted longer.