Firearm Background Checks Decline
Although not a widely-utilized indicator, we like to look at the number of firearm background checks conducted by the NICS every month to gauge geopolitical uncertainty and volatility within the US. In uncertain times, firearm background checks tend to increase, as individuals increasingly acquire the means to protect themselves in a worst-case scenario. On the contrary, when times are ‘good’, background checks tend to decline. An additional factor that impacts background checks is the outlook on firearms legislation. When the populous fears that they may not be able to purchase certain firearms in the future, they will step up purchases in the short term to ‘stock up’. At the end of June, the Supreme Court ruled against the state of New York in regards to carry laws, which could help to expand demand for firearms, at least in that part of the country. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
In the month of July, firearm background checks declined by 6.5% sequentially and by 16.6% year over year continuing a recent trend of sharp declines. While checks are down, it followed a period of surging demand in 2020 as geopolitical unrest ran rampant throughout the US (BLM protests, claims of election fraud, COVID lockdowns, etc.). Nonetheless, background checks have declined by 33.9% on a two-year stack.
However, background checks are still in a longer-term uptrend. At 2.4 million, July’s background checks rank in the 16.2% of all months since NICS began reporting this data in 1998, and outside of late 2019 and into early 2021, there were only a few months that the number of checks was higher. Still, they are down 48.8% from the all-time high in March 2021. This may be because demand was pulled forward, but it could also be due to a more normalized domestic situation.
Through July, the 22.4% YTD decline in background checks in July versus December has actually been smaller than average. Background checks in July are practically always lower than in December, and the only year where that wasn’t the case was in 2020 when the country was gripped by riots in cities nationwide. Going back to 2000, background checks in July were typically more than a third (-33.8%) lower than in December. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
There are two publicly traded stocks directly exposed to these trends: Sturm Ruger (RGR) and Smith & Wesson (SWBI). The monthly performance of these two stocks tends to be highly correlated to trailing twelve-month NCIS background checks, as this is a clear read into the demand picture for these two companies. Just like background checks in general, both stocks are still in sustained downtrends. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Rotating in August
Following the best July of the post-WWII era, equities have been getting off to a slower start in August with the Russell 3,000 experiencing a modest decline yesterday and the index fighting to move into the green as of midday today. Most of the move to start August appears to a degree to be rotational in nature. In the chart below, we show the average performance of deciles of Russell 3,000 stocks grouped by their performance in the month of July. As shown, both the best and worst performers last month have rallied in early August with the deciles of the worst performers seeing slightly larger gains. The losers this month have been in the middle of the performance spectrum as deciles 4 through 7 are each flat to lower over the past couple of sessions.
Equities bottomed in mid-June and have been in rally mode ever since. As for how performance the past couple of days relates to the first half of the year’s declines, again the worst performers have generally been outperforming. However, by this measure, the top performers from the 52-week high just after the New Year through the low in June have continued to fall this week. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/2/22 – Oil’s Not Well
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war.” – Norman Schwarzkopf
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
With Speaker Pelosi reportedly en route to Taiwan as we type this, markets are on edge this morning as China has threatened military action if the planned trip takes place. Only Chinese authorities know exactly what the response will be, but we would expect more bluster than bite. After a relatively slow day of earnings news yesterday, today will be a busy day, and there have already been a number of important reports this morning from the likes of Caterpillar (CAT), Uber (UBER), and Marriot (MAR) among others. After the close, among others, we’ll hear from AMD, Gilead (GILD), Occidental (OXY), PayPal (PYPL), and Starbucks (SBUX).
Today’s Morning Lineup discusses earnings news out of Europe and the Americas, the rate hike in Australia, a detailed look at other economic data from around the world, and much more.
32 years ago today, Iraq invaded Kuwait, spurring a monumental surge in oil prices. In the first five trading days of August alone, WTI surged more than 35% and nearly doubled in price through the fall as tensions in the region boiled over. There are still more than enough geopolitical issues around the globe today to worry about, but unlike in August 1990, crude oil prices have been moving in the opposite direction.
After briefly trading above $130 per barrel earlier this year, crude oil has declined nearly 30% from its peak to under $95 per barrel, and just yesterday, closed below its 200-DMA for the first time in over six months.
As shown in the chart below, yesterday’s close below the 200-DMA ended what was the 12th longest streak of consecutive closes above the 200-DMA for WTI since the early 1980s. The streak that just ended was the longest since the 269 trading day streak that ended last November. That streak was the third longest on record trailing only the 276 trading day streak that ended in April 2000 and the 330 trading day streak that ended in August 2008.
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Bespoke Market Calendar — August 2022
Please click the image below to view our August 2022 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Gas Prices Continue to Decline
In 2022, extremely elevated gas prices have been impacting the economy, as every product-producing company has seen energy and transportation costs increase, forcing price hikes on the part of businesses simply to keep margins flat. Although there are a variety of factors affecting CPI readings, high gas prices certainly apply upward pressure. Today, gas prices are still extremely elevated compared to historical levels. At the AAA current national average of $4.22, just 1.8% of all days since the start of 2005 have seen a higher national average high, and all of them occurred this year. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
The national average price per barrel is still up 32.75% y/y, but this is actually the smallest y/y increase so far in 2022 and comes as the national average price has declined for 48 consecutive days. That’s the fourth longest streak on record. This streak is certainly notable, but gas prices are still at a level that is wearing on consumers.
The 40-day rate of change in average gas prices (-15%) has been notable as well, with only six other periods seeing a larger decline on a percentage basis. The most recent occurred during the COVID crash when it became clear that demand was going to deteriorate due to government-imposed mandates across the globe. Consumers will hope for further declines as we begin to near the $4.00 per gallon level. Not only have prices been falling lately, but they have also been more volatile than usual, as the current 50-day standard deviation (26 cents) is 3.2 times higher than the average since 2005. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Strongest July in Post-WWII Era
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed over 140 basis points higher on the back of favorable earnings from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM). This was the third straight day in which the S&P 500 gained at least one percent, allowing bulls to breathe a sigh of relief after a tough start to the year. These moves came even as a second consecutive quarter of negative real GDP growth was reported and the Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points.
Friday’s move helped the S&P 500 post its best July in the post-WWII era, finishing with a gain of 9.2%. Although the index is still close to 14% off of its early January highs, the market looks more inviting than it did at the beginning of the month, when the YTD declines were above 20%. As investors, we could just give ourselves high fives for the month, but it’s vital to remain forward-looking. Following July gains of 5%+, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.6% in August (median: +1.4%), performing positively 60 percent of the time. Between the start of August and the end of the calendar year, the index has averaged a gain of 8.0% (median: +10.0%), gaining 80% of the time. Over the following twelve months (starting in August), the index has averaged an impressive gain of 15.6% (median: +15.4%), rallying 87% of the time. Based on past history, bull runs in July tend to bode well for the market for both the rest of the year and over the following twelve months. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/1/22 – The Real World
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Ladies and gentlemen, rock and roll.” – John Lack
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
41 years ago today, teens, pre-teens, and other people resembling the cast of “Stranger Things” watched “Video Killed the Radio Star” as MTV revolutionized the entertainment industry by making music both a listening and viewing experience. Eleven years later, in 1992, MTV mixed things up again with the launch of “The Real World” in what ultimately became the start of the reality TV revolution. The life cycle of MTV has been interesting to watch. What started as a network intended solely for ‘watching’ music, has become a network that now shows little or no music at all. MTV’s experience also shows the importance of adapting and changing with the times. Peter Drucker may not have had MTV in mind, but the phrase most famously applied to him still applies. Innovate or die.
Futures started off the month of August with losses last night but have erased much of the weakness so far this morning. Treasury yields are only marginally higher, crude oil is lower, while gold is higher. The big economic indicator of the day is the ISM Manufacturing report at 10:00 AM Eastern. Economists expect the headline reading to come in at 52.2 versus June’s reading of 53.0. Any reading under 53.0 would be the weakest reading in two years (June 2020).
Today’s Morning Lineup discusses earnings news out of Europe and the Americas, global PMI data for July, a detailed look at other economic data from around the world, and much more.
There may not be an official start date, but August represents what many consider the dog days of summer when, for a lot of people, the market is the last thing on their minds. Historically, there have been a number of calamitous events that began or transpired in August, but overall stock market returns during this time of year have been middling. The snapshot below from our Seasonality tool shows that over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median performance from the close on 8/1 over the next week, month, and three months has ranked between the 50th and 60th percentile. For the next week, the S&P 500’s median gain has been 0.40%. The next month has had a median gain of 1.15% while the next three months have seen a median gain of 2.75%. Nothing especially notable, but the way this year has gone, a gain is a gain!
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Bespoke Brunch Reads: 7/31/22
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
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Energy Policy
Department of Energy Releases New Notice of Sale as Gasoline Prices Continue to Fall (The White House)
A new Biden administration initiative will start using futures markets in conjunction with the SPR, in an effort to balance the crude market’s term structure as well as the physical market, which can allow for easier market conditions without outright selling crude from the SPR. [Link]
Resource Nationalism and Decarbonization by Miguel Ángel Marmolejo Cervantes , Martín Obaya, Thea Riofrancos, and Alex Yablon (Phenomenal World)
A conversation discussing the prospects of nationalization and national management of decarbonized energy resources in Latin America. [Link]
How London Paid a Record Price to Dodge a Blackout by Javier Blas (Blooomberg)
The UK’s metropole only barely avoided a blackout in mid-July, but to do so it needed to pay 5000% more per hour than is typical. These sorts of shocks to the grid are becoming more and more common as resilience falls. [Link; soft paywall]
Growth Tech
Zuck Turns Up The Heat by Alex Heath & David Pierce (The Verge)
The trials and tribulations of the Meta CEO, struggling to manage a sprawling social media behemoth that is being nibbled at from all sides. [Link]
Changes to Shopify’s team by Tobi Lutke (Shopify)
A frank admission that the explosion in e-commerce activity during the pandemic didn’t continue, and investments made during that period are souring amidst a huge swing back towards normal spending from consumers. [Link]
Politics
Republicans Confront Unexpected Online Money Slowdown by
While political partisans on both sides of the aisle appear motivated, recent GOP grassroots fundraising efforts have dried up at a critical period for advertising spending headed into the midterm elections, in a potential warning sign for the party that has analysts puzzled. [Link; soft paywall]
Investing
The Secret Diary of a ‘Sustainable Investor’ — Part 1 by Tariq Fancy (Medium)
A rejection of the “sustainable” or “ESG” investing movement by one of its founding members, in favor of much bigger and more dramatic interventions in how our society consumes resources. [Link]
Demographics
Study: Millennials didn’t stray far from where they grew up by Mike Schneider (AP)
A new analysis of Census data suggests that narrow economic opportunity sets mean they tend to lead their adult lives close to where they grew up. [Link]
Remembering When Bob Dylan Shocked The World By Going Electric, On This Day In 1965 [Videos] by Rex Thomson (Live For Live Music)
An oral history of the night that folk music legend Bob Dylan decided to take a different tack, switching from his acoustic guitar to an electric one and forever changing how he was viewed as an artist. [Link]
Inflation
Cheaper Beer, Cigarettes Gain Favor as Inflation Pinches Shoppers by Jennifer Maloney and Alex Harring (WSJ)
Lower-priced value brands are seeing strong sales while premium offerings suffer, a response to pinched budgets and incomes that can’t keep up with broad prices. [Link; paywall]
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Have a great weekend!
The Bespoke Report — Equity Market Pros and Cons — Q3 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q3 2022.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page two of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page three and beyond.
To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
Fed Chair Powell: The Comeback Kid
The S&P 500 has gained more than 1% on each of the last four Fed Days going back to March. The March meeting was the first rate hike of the Fed’s current tightening cycle, and every meeting since then has seen a hike of at least 50 basis points. Each time, the S&P surged on the day of the hike.
The recent equity market strength on Fed Days is a new trend. Market performance on Fed Days during Powell’s first few years at the helm was notoriously weak. Below we show the S&P 500’s average intraday performance on Fed Days by Fed chair since 1994 when policy changes first started being announced on the same day as the meeting. For Chair Powell, we show the S&P’s average performance on Fed Days during his tenure only through July 2021. At the time a year ago, Powell Fed Days were by far the worst of any Fed chair, and the market typically plunged into the close after the 2 PM ET announcement.
What a difference a year makes. Below we show the S&P’s average intraday performance on Fed Days by Fed chair updated through the most recent FOMC meeting this week. Whereas Powell Fed Days were by far the worst for the market at this time last year, they’re now the second best behind only Bernanke Fed Days.
To highlight the improvement in the market response to Fed Chair Powell another way, below we show the full-day percentage change of the S&P 500 on Fed Days during Powell’s tenure as well as how the cumulative averages have evolved for both the full-day change and performance from 2:30 PM ET through the close (encapsulating the market response to the presser, or the chair more directly).
As you can see, the S&P was extremely weak on Powell Fed Days early on during his tenure, but over the last year, the market has reacted extremely positively. Seven of the last eight Powell Fed Days have seen positive moves for the S&P, with the last four all seeing gains of more than 1%. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
