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“Ladies and gentlemen, rock and roll.” – John Lack

Morning stock market summary

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41 years ago today, teens, pre-teens, and other people resembling the cast of “Stranger Things” watched “Video Killed the Radio Star” as MTV revolutionized the entertainment industry by making music both a listening and viewing experience.  Eleven years later, in 1992, MTV mixed things up again with the launch of “The Real World” in what ultimately became the start of the reality TV revolution.  The life cycle of MTV has been interesting to watch.  What started as a network intended solely for ‘watching’ music, has become a network that now shows little or no music at all.  MTV’s experience also shows the importance of adapting and changing with the times. Peter Drucker may not have had MTV in mind, but the phrase most famously applied to him still applies.  Innovate or die.

Futures started off the month of August with losses last night but have erased much of the weakness so far this morning. Treasury yields are only marginally higher, crude oil is lower, while gold is higher. The big economic indicator of the day is the ISM Manufacturing report at 10:00 AM Eastern.   Economists expect the headline reading to come in at 52.2 versus June’s reading of 53.0.  Any reading under 53.0 would be the weakest reading in two years (June 2020).

Today’s Morning Lineup discusses earnings news out of Europe and the Americas, global PMI data for July, a detailed look at other economic data from around the world, and much more.

There may not be an official start date, but August represents what many consider the dog days of summer when, for a lot of people, the market is the last thing on their minds.  Historically, there have been a number of calamitous events that began or transpired in August, but overall stock market returns during this time of year have been middling.  The snapshot below from our Seasonality tool shows that over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median performance from the close on 8/1 over the next week, month, and three months has ranked between the 50th and 60th percentile.  For the next week, the S&P 500’s median gain has been 0.40%.  The next month has had a median gain of 1.15% while the next three months have seen a median gain of 2.75%.  Nothing especially notable, but the way this year has gone, a gain is a gain!

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