Apr 2, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we go over the lack of late day buying while crude oil has moved further into backwardation. We also note that amidst all the interest rate chaos and weak economic data, the VIX is falling to new lows. Moving on to macro data, we begin with a look at the February data on manufacturers’ new orders, sales, and inventories. We compare this hard data to the soft data seen in our Five Fed Manufacturing Index. We finish with an update on global autos sales.
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Apr 2, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the rapid bear-steepening of the yield curve. We provide the case that yields could have fallen further given the performance of Industrials versus Utilities and Copper versus Gold while also taking a look at how momentum driven the rates sell-off has been. Turning to equities, with today’s jump into Q2, we look at the at least neutral to bullish case given prior instances of strong Q2 starts. In macro data, we delve into the strong print of Construction data which rose 1% MoM versus the 0.2% decline forecasted before moving onto Retail Sales that continue to be a mess.
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Mar 29, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
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Mar 28, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the multi-year trend of widening credit spreads while dollar and rate volatility has fallen; mirroring that of stocks and WTI. We also observe the lackluster performance of green energy stocks before giving the full picture of our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite with the addition of today’s Kansas City Fed’s data. To finish, expanding on an earlier blog post, we created a diffusion index of state-level jobless claims. The index shows a bit of a contrast between Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims.
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Mar 27, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, taking a look at the recent decimation of Treasury yields, we note that stocks have actually held up well, and are not always perfectly correlated with yields. We make a similar note regarding oil before delving deeper into the mess that has been rates. We examine the evidence that interest rates’ movements have been a result of hedging by looking at swap spreads and mortgages. In macro data, we review the US Current Account which showed the largest deficit since 2012 driven by the Goods and Services trade balance. We also show US income from portfolio investment which is at a record and the gross value of goods and services multi-year declines as a share of GDP. We finish with a recap of today’s EIA data.
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Mar 26, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a note on the S&P 500’s price action after two straight days with a doji candlestick pattern. Turning to rates, we discuss where the 10-year Treasury yield should be given its relationship to crude oil, and the prospects of the 2-year after today’s impressive auction. Following up on today’s Chart of the Day, we provide some probit regressions to show the odds of a recession in the next few years given a number of variables. Next, with the addition of the Dallas and Richmond Feds’ indices, we provide an updated look at our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite which is now showing some improvements. We finish with today’s housing starts release which missed by a wide margin (though permits were stronger) partially thanks to weather conditions on the west coast.
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