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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a note on the S&P 500’s price action after two straight days with a doji candlestick pattern. Turning to rates, we discuss where the 10-year Treasury yield should be given its relationship to crude oil, and the prospects of the 2-year after today’s impressive auction. Following up on today’s Chart of the Day, we provide some probit regressions to show the odds of a recession in the next few years given a number of variables. Next, with the addition of the Dallas and Richmond Feds’ indices, we provide an updated look at our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite which is now showing some improvements. We finish with today’s housing starts release which missed by a wide margin (though permits were stronger) partially thanks to weather conditions on the west coast.
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