Mar 25, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, in spite of equities’ strong performance so far this year, we highlight the asset’s underperformance relative to commodities and fixed income. Staying on the topic of fixed income, we take a look at the divergence between the long end and the front end of the yield curve, and what kinds of recessionary signals it is sending. Further, we provide an update on the market’s expectations for rate hikes and cuts based on the OIS market. Turning to macro data, we show another weak month of CPB data on global trade and industrial production, though it’s not all bad, as Germany trade and auto industry data is at least supportive.
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Mar 22, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
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Mar 21, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look at the rally in credit which has brought it right up to resistance. Staying on the topic, we pivot towards the underperformance of banks which have been moving contrary to what credit would lead one to believe. After making note of recent late session trends, we turn to macro data with an update to our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite which—with the addition of the Philly Fed’s release—is showing strong shipments but weaker forward-looking indicators. We finish tonight covering the lackluster labor productivity in some Eurozone countries and Chinese auto sales dragging down the global metrics.
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Mar 20, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as the Fed came out with an increasingly dovish tone today, cutting rate hike estimates to zero for the rest of 2019, lowering growth expectations, and announcing a stop to asset purchases within the year, we provide a summary to the market’s reaction. Next, we delve a bit deeper into the Fed’s summary of economic projections (SEP), which using the Taylor Rule, backs up their policy decisions to keep rates neutral. Then we cover weekly fund flows which continued to see equity outflows as there were massive inflows into bonds. We finish with an updated look at EIA’s big increase in petroleum inventories.
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Mar 19, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision out of the Fed, we begin tonight’s Closer with a look at interest rates as seen through the 3 month LIBOR and overnight index swaps. We also take a brief look at the movement in industrial metals to see what this could say about the global economy. Next, we provide an update of our Beige Book index which has collapsed recently. We then turn to Europe which has seen credit markets lagging versus their US counterparts. With the banking sector being in part to blame for this, we finish with a look at the status of Non-performing loans in the Eurozone.
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Mar 18, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, with the 2,816 resistance level now behind us we evaluate how much higher the S&P 500 can run given catalysts like overbought/oversold levels, the VIX, and valuations. Next, we look at last week’s release of Chinese credit creation which came in at the slowest pace in years. We then provide a quick update on Brexit before finishing with one of the few US data points today: Cass Freight Volumes and Costs
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