Apr 10, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at EM currencies which are setting up to break out above their recent range. We then show how crack spreads surged on high gasoline demand as per the EIA data released today. We go further into this release to show how petroleum stockpiles have held up this week. More in economic data, we recap today’s CPI release which missed expectations due to autos and new apparel price methodology. We then turn to inflation indicators which have yet to show a peak in inflation. Stepping out of the ordinary, we move onto the University of Chicago’s General Social Survey for 2018 in which media consumption and government confidence showed some interesting points. We finish with our weekly look at fund flows.
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Apr 9, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we cover how the Russell once again failed to hold above the 200-DMA. We draw an ominous parallel to another instance that the index has acted this way in the past. Staying on the topic of the Russell 2000, we show why the high share of unprofitable companies in the index may not necessarily be a call for concern. Moving onto commodities, using today’s USDA monthly crop data, we show the impressive trend of growth in agriculture’s productivity. We finish with a note on today’s JOLTS report which missed estimates but still remains strong relative to the labor force.
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Apr 8, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as an increasing share of S&P 500 companies are becoming overbought as seen through RSI, we take a look at the forward returns in the next week. We then take a look at high yield spreads which are confirming the current rally. We also show how crude oil’s current rally could begin to stall. Moving on to the stock market’s internals, we show a decile analysis of the S&P 500 given metrics like performance during and after the Q4 2018 sell-off, P/E, and market cap. Next, we turn to the technicals of the 30 year yield as it approaches a major pivot point and how the market is beginning to price in rate hikes again. We finish with a note on Canadian housing data which has seen a slowing in starts.
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Apr 5, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
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Apr 4, 2019
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In tonight’s edition of The Closer, we are experimenting with a new format. Instead of our standard report in PDF format, we’ve compressed the report into a 10-minute audio briefing with some charts to accompany the discussion. In tonight’s briefing, we discuss economic data in Germany, Mexico, Brazil, and the US, the performance of the European auto sector, Tesla’s rising bond yields, today’s collapse in SaaS names and the outlook for the group, some Federal Reserve appointees, and a preview of economic data due out overnight as well as commentary on recent trade developments.
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Apr 3, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as the current drawdown from the S&P 500’s high closes in on the third longest of the current bull market, given current levels we show how long it could be until it reaches those highs again. We also highlight a potential red flag in the index’s intraday weakness. Looking outside the US, as emerging markets hit new highs today, we cover EEM’s reliance on Chinese gains to make this progress. We also show how EEM relative to SPY has diverged from commodity total returns. Turning to US data, we expand on this mornings note about MBA Mortgage data by showing the surge in refinancing applications and adjustable rate mortgages. We finish with a look at weekly fund flows and EIA petroleum data.
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