Apr 18, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the VIX which has continued to grind lower. Turning over the macro data, we expand on this morning’s look at Markit Flash PMIs with the addition of the US print. Next, we show our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite with the New York and Philly Fed inputs. After that, we show what the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators index is signaling in terms of a recession. We finish with an analysis of crude oil prices which have stalled near $65 while Brent and crack spreads have held up better; we go further to explain what this means for refiners.
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Apr 17, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin by showing just how dramatic the health care sector’s underperformance has been. We also make note of the S&P 500’s 3rd straight gap up only to fall from open to close. We then show the loosening of financial conditions as indicated by the Chicago Fed’s data. Next, we see at how US inflation stacks up against European inflation by taking a look at US HICP data from Eurostat. Pivoting back to health care, we show the performance, estimated next twelve months EPS multiple, and EPS estimate revisions of the industries and sub industries. We finish with our weekly look at EIA and fund flow data.
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Apr 16, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look into the industries that we consider cyclical which have been outperforming the S&P 500 recently. This could bode well for global manufacturing finding a bottom as well as the durability of the current rally. Of these cyclical industries, we highlight autos, more specifically OEMs and parts retailers, showing how much they make up of the global indices. Turning to macro data, we evaluate today’s industrial production data which saw the March release miss estimates. We also review the quarterly estimate of weekly income for the first quarter, released by the BLS today. We finish with an updated look at our Fedspeak Monitor Index, which has flipped from dovish to hawkish and now is back to dovish once again.
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Apr 15, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we check up on breadth and overbought levels by looking at the percentage of S&P 500 stock reaching new 52 week highs vs lows, distance from the 200-DMA, and RSI. We run the same analysis for the European Stoxx 600. Switching to interest rate markets, we counter concerns that dealer demand has been weak in UST auctions. Pivoting to economic data, we look South and North of the border, examining weakening Mexican labor and secondary industries as well as today’s Bank of Canada quarterly business surveys. We finish with a look at how international investors have turned a cheek to US equities as seen through today’s TIC flows.
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Apr 12, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
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Apr 11, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, with JPM looking to kick off earnings season tomorrow morning, we take a look at how the banking group trades around this time. Afterward, we move on to provide a technical analysis of gold. Pivoting back to equities, we show the outperformance of value year to date and offer some names that offer attractive valuations across multiple metrics and attractive chart patterns. We finish with an update of today’s PPI release which handily beat economist forecasts.
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