Apr 30, 2026
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“We are seeing unprecedented internal and external demand for AI compute resources.” – Anat Ashkenazi, CFO, Alphabet
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It was called a make-or-break night for earnings, and the bulls made it through. While the four major hyperscalers aren’t moving in unison this morning, futures are higher with the Nasdaq leading the way, trading up 0.5% while the S&P 500 is up slightly less (+0.40%). Next on the list? Apple (AAPL) after the close. Treasury yields are moving lower after yesterday’s spike, while crude oil is finally seeing a pullback for a change, although WTI is still trading at $105 per barrel. Gold and Bitcoin are both trading up by about 1%.
International markets had a mixed session. Asian stocks declined pretty much across the board, with Japan down just over 1%, but the yen surged as the BoJ gave a final warning regarding yen intervention. In Europe, stocks are generally higher with the STOXX 600 trading up 0.7%, led higher by the FTSE 100, which is up over 1%.
It’s a busy day for economic data in the US on top of tons of earnings, and outside of Chicago PMI at 9:45, all of the reports hit the tape at 8:30. We don’t have time to go through all of them here, but the results were generally OK. GDP was weaker than expected, inflation data was generally inline, Personal Income was stronger than expected, and jobless claims were much better than expected as initial claims fell below 200k!
This morning on CNBC, in a conversation between Gary Gohn and Andrew Sorkin, the former highlighted several positive aspects of the US economy right now. In response, Sorkin asked if it was “right that the market is just ignoring what’s going on in the Middle East right now?” It may feel as though, with the market hitting new highs, that it is ignoring what’s going on in the Middle East, but the reality is that up until this point, it hasn’t had much of an impact on the US economy.
Over the last several weeks, we’ve cited numerous examples of economic data coming in better than expected, and last week’s Beige Book reinforced that trend. The Fed is even less concerned about economic weakness now than it was several weeks ago. This morning, jobless claims dropped below 200K! The latest round of earnings reports also reinforces this trend. Through yesterday, 78% of companies reporting exceeded EPS forecasts while 70% topped revenue estimates.
Those numbers are impressive but also backward-looking. What really stands out is the guidance. 7% of companies reporting have raised guidance this earnings season compared to just 4% that have lowered estimates. These companies see the same dire headlines regarding the Middle East each morning as you and I, but they also see what’s going on in their businesses. Things are strong enough that they feel confident in raising forecasts when they could easily use the uncertainty over the war and energy markets as an excuse to play it conservative.
Yesterday’s earnings headline was the hyperscalers and how companies representing around 18% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported in one after-hours session. It wasn’t just the S&P 500. Since the close yesterday, companies representing more than 20% of the Dow reported earnings, but the main drivers weren’t Microsoft (MSFT) or Amazon.com (AMZN). These two companies represent a combined 8.7% of the index, but the big kahuna reporting in the Dow is Caterpillar (CAT). Because the Dow is price-weighted and CAT has a share price above $800 (second largest behind Goldman Sachs), it alone has a weighting of more than 10% in the index.
With shares of CAT trading up $48 in response to earnings, its gain will push the Dow higher by 300 points this morning. Combining that with the loss in MSFT and the gains in Amazon.com (AMZN) and Merck (MRK), these four companies will have a net positive impact of 320 points at the open. While that works out to a gain of over 0.6% for the index this morning, it still won’t be enough to push the Dow to new highs, as it would still be 2.6% below its record high from earlier in the year.
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Apr 29, 2026
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“We live in a world defined by the rapid pace of technological change.” – Jerome Powell
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures point to a positive open driven mostly by tech stocks, and more specifically, AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 is indicated to open fractionally higher, while the Nasdaq is on pace to gain 0.3%. Treasury yields are modestly higher, while WTI crude oil adds another 3.5% to $103.4 per barrel. Yields and crude oil can’t keep rising like this without having at least some impact on equities.
In Asia, it was mostly a positive session, although Japan was closed. Chinese and South Korean stocks both rallied about 0.75%, although Australian stocks declined 0.2%. European stocks are lower across the board, with the STOXX 600 down 0.4% as UK stocks lead the way lower, down 0.8%.
It’s a relatively busy day for data, with Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30, along with Wholesale Inventories and Durable Goods. Then, at 2 PM, we’ll get the last FOMC statement under the Powell Fed, followed by his last press conference at 2:30. All of these events will play second fiddle, though, to earnings reports from the hyperscalers after the close.
There’s a Fed meeting today, but markets expect little to come out of it. This will be Fed Chair Powell’s last meeting leading the Fed, so there’s little reason to expect comments that have any potential to rock the boat. Rather, Powell will likely want to hand off a clean slate to the incoming likely Chair, Kevin Warsh. The main headline coming out of the press conference this afternoon will likely be news over whether Powell plans to stay on the committee once he steps down as chair.
Instead of the Fed, investors will be more focused on the upcoming batch of earnings reports after the close from hyperscalers Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). Not only are these among the largest companies in the world, but they’re also spending more on AI than just about any other company in the world. It’s also an incredible juxtaposition to see all four of these companies that plan to collectively spend more than $650 billion on capex this year reporting today. Then tomorrow, Apple (AAPL), the third-largest company in the world, but whose cap ex is peanuts compared to its other mega-cap peers, reports tomorrow. They’re all enormous companies, but they couldn’t be more different in terms of their AI investments.
Below, we wanted to provide a snapshot of the recent earnings reports since the launch of ChatGPT for each of the four hyperscalers and how their stocks reacted to each report.
Starting with AMZN, the bar is somewhat high given its run lately, but the stock is coming off a quarter where it missed EPS forecasts for the first time in three years. Following its last five earnings reports, the stock has declined on its earnings reaction day.
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Apr 28, 2026
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“People generally see what they look for, and hear what they listen for.” – Harper Lee
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Sentiment surrounding AI is really something these days. On one day, you can have stocks surging on the idea that companies can’t get their hands on enough compute, and then the next day, they sell off sharply because there’s not enough demand. It’s like the line from The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, “Water, water, everywhere/Nor any drop to drink”. This morning, the Nasdaq is leading futures lower on a report in the Wall Street Journal that OpenAI missed year-end user and revenue targets, raising questions over whether all of the investments in the sector will eventually pay off. These are legitimate questions to ask, but if the article is based on year-end 2025 targets, a lot has changed between now and then regarding OpenAI’s growth (Codex) and the sector.
Nasdaq futures are currently down more than 1% while the S&P 500 is indicated 0.65% lower, while oil prices have surged more than 5%, taking WTI back above $100 per barrel. The impact of that increase in oil prices can’t be overstated either. While oil prices surge, gold prices are sharply lower (-2.6%), while Bitcoin is down less than 1%.
In Asia, stocks were mostly lower, with South Korea being the only exception (+0.4%). Japan and Hong Kong were both down 1% while China declined only 0.2%. The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged, but it was a fractured vote with three of nine voters pushing for a rate hike.
In Europe, it’s a mixed picture. With much less tech exposure than the US, the STOXX 600 is unchanged on the session while Italy leads the way higher (+0.9%) and Germany lags (-0.2%).
In the US today, it’s a relatively quiet day for data with the FHFA House Price Index at 9:00, and the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence reports for April hitting the tape at 10 AM.
The S&P 500 hit both a new intraday and a closing high yesterday as the bull market continues to reconfirm itself with six closing record highs since 4/15. The index has had a parabolic run this month, and while a pullback or consolidation wouldn’t surprise anyone, the index should find decent support at the prior highs from late last year/early this year.
Over the last several years, whenever the market hits new highs, we look to see what’s driving the move higher. Is it the mega-caps or the rest of the index? Starting with the mega-caps, it’s been a strong month for the group, and while the group rallied nearly 1% yesterday to provide some positive momentum, it remains well below its prior all-time highs from last fall. At yesterday’s close of $67.08, the MAG7 ETF (MAGS) is still nearly 3% below its prior peak.
The equal-weight S&P 500, which more accurately reflects the performance of the “S&P 493”, traded down fractionally yesterday, so while it didn’t contribute at all to yesterday’s rally, it is actually much closer to all-time highs than the MAG7 ETF. In any event, though, it’s interesting to see that both the S&P 500 Equalweight and the MAG7 ETF closed more than 1% below all-time highs yesterday, even as the index itself hit a new one.
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Apr 27, 2026
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“Judge a man by his questions rather than his answers.” – Voltaire
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Nasdaq futures are up once again this morning as semis rally another 1.5% in pre-market trading. As a reminder, the Philly Sox semis index is on an 18-day win streak and hasn’t had a down day this month! Meanwhile, traders continue to sell software stocks with the ETF that tracks the group (IGV) down about half a percent ahead of the open. One day soon we expect the long semis/short software trade to unwind; it’s just a matter of when.
As we noted in Friday’s Bespoke Report (read it here if you missed it on Friday), even though the cap-weighted large-cap index ETFs like SPY and QQQ have broken out to new all-time highs, the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) looks quite different.
As shown in the lower left chart below, RSP attempted to break out but failed at resistance. On Friday, SPY rallied 0.8% even though breadth was -146 and the average stock in the index was down 0.2%.
While the Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rallied more than 2% last week, the S&P 500 (SPY) was only up 0.5%, and there were actually more sectors down (6) than up (5).
Health Care (XLV), Communication Services (XLC), Financials (XLF), Real Estate (XLRE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were all down more than 1%.
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Apr 24, 2026
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“Let chaos reign, then rein in chaos.” – Andy Grove
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The rally continues to roll this morning as the S&P 500 looks to gap up 0.50% at the open, while the Nasdaq is up nearly triple that amount on the back of strong earnings, specifically from Intel (INTC). There’s also been some positive news out of the Middle East on reports that both the US and Iran will return to the bargaining table. Along with higher stock prices comes lower oil prices as WTI crude trades down 1.5% to $94.45 after trading as high as $97 earlier. Gold prices are unchanged, and Bitcoin is up nearly 1%.
Overnight, Asia was mixed. The Nikkei finished the last session of the week with a gain of 1%, doubling its week-to-date gain, while South Korea was little changed, keeping its weekly gain at just over 4.5%. China was slightly lower on the session and finished the week up less than 1%.
In Europe, stocks are generally lower, sitting out the tech-fueled rally that US stocks are likely to see at the open. The STOXX 600 is down less than half a percent, but will finish the week down over 2% even as the S&P 500 looks to finish the week higher.
Getting back to the US, it’s a quiet day for economic data with Michigan Sentiment the only report on the calendar. Earlier this month, the flash reading came in at a record low. That’s noteworthy because if those preliminary levels hold, it would be the first time that this index ever hit a record low in the same month that the S&P 500 hit an all-time high. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere.
It’s time to dust off the 10,000 hats again, not for the Dow but the SOX. For the first time, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed above 10,000 yesterday, and this morning, the Transports of the 21st Century are on pace to trade another 2.8% higher. We’ve been discussing it a lot recently, so excuse us for beating a dead horse, but the SOX is now on pace to trade higher for a record 18 straight trading days. The only other streak that was anywhere nearly as long was in June 2014, when the index traded higher for 15 straight days.
Just as incredible as the 18-day winning streak is the magnitude of the gain during this streak. If the current gains hold through the end of the day, the SOX will have rallied 45% in the last 18 trading days. We’ll say that again, 45%! Even for a volatile index like the SOX, there has only been one other 18-day period in the index’s history when it gained more, and that was coming out of the dot-com crash lows in Q4 2002, when the index was 97% lower than it is now!
We mentioned the term “dead horse” above, and surprisingly, it’s been stocks that were considered left for dead driving most of the gains. For starters, during yesterday’s session, Texas Instruments (TXN) rallied 19.4% on the back of its Q1 earnings report. Since 1990, there has only been one other day when the stock rallied more, and that was in October 2000.
As mentioned above, today’s driver of the semis rally is Intel (INTC). After an earnings triple play yesterday, the stock is trading up over 26% in the pre-market, which would rank as the stock’s best day since at least 1990. While the old guard of semis has been rallying, the AI bellwether of the group, Nvidia (NVDA), continues to lag, at least relatively speaking. Since the 3/30 low for the SOX, NVDA is up “only” 20%, or less than half as much as the index, in which it is easily the largest component by market cap.
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Apr 23, 2026
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“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late” – William Shakespeare, The Merry Wives of Windsor
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street yesterday to discuss energy, midterms, and the markets. To view the segment, click on the image below
Equity futures traded sharply lower overnight on concerns of renewed military action in the Middle East. Since then, the negative sentiment has receded on reports out of China that the US and Iran will return to the bargaining table, and futures are well off their lows. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are now flat, while the Dow, being dragged lower by a decline in IBM, is indicated to open down 0.35%.
Treasury yields are marginally higher this morning, with the 10-year yield ticking above 4.30%, while crude oil is now lower after trading much higher overnight. Gold prices are fractionally lower, and Bitcoin is still down 1.5% at just under $78K.
Asian stocks were mostly lower overnight, with South Korea the standout gainer among a sea of red. Higher oil prices were the primary driver of the weakness. In terms of economic data, though, flash PMI readings for April in Japan, India, and Australia came in higher than expected. European stocks are also trading tentatively this morning as the STOXX 600 trades down 0.3%, with France the only gainer. Like Asia, the flash PMI reading for the Eurozone Manufacturing also unexpectedly showed an acceleration.
Besides the pickup in earnings flow, the economic calendar is busy this morning with jobless claims at 8:30, flash PMI readings at 9:45, and then the KC Manufacturing report at 11 AM. On the sentiment front, if should come as no surprise that AAII’s weekly survey saw a big uptick in bullish sentiment, rising from 31.7% up to 46.0%, which isn’t far from the 52-week high of 49.5% in January.
Semis and software have generally moved in opposite directions this year, but over the last several days, both have moved higher. Semis extended their streak of daily gains to a record 15 trading days yesterday, and the streak in software stocks has been half as long. As shown in the chart below, the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV) has traded higher for eight straight days, making it tied for the longest daily winning streak since late 2019. With the ETF trading down close to 3% this morning, though, we wouldn’t bet on the streak extending to a ninth day.
The chart below shows a long-term look at IGV’s performance, with red dots showing every prior eight-day streak. Only once, in the summer of 2011, did one of these streaks coincide with a notable peak in the sector, as the majority occurred within various stages of longer-term uptrends. This current streak has been somewhat unique in that IGV is trading so close to a low.
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