Morning Lineup – Flat-line
It’s hard to remember a time in recent memory when futures were as muted as they have been this morning. For the last three hours now, Dow futures have essentially been in a range of indicating an open of +/- 15 points from yesterday’s close! There’s not much incentive to do anything major, though, as many traders appear content to sit on their hands ahead of this weekend’s G-20 meeting where both sides seem to be actively lowering expectations ahead of the meeting. Things could get a little more interesting for the rest of the day, though, as five FOMC voters (including Powell) are scheduled to speak today.
Please read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on everything you need to know ahead of the new trading day including a look at Gold’s overbought levels, the weak UK Retail Sales earlier today, and weak manufacturing confidence out of France.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 6/25/19
As mentioned above, there’s going to be a lot of Fed commentary on the wires today, beginning with Williams coming up in a few minutes. The big one, though, will be Powell, who is scheduled to speak at 1PM New York time. Besides the Fed speak, we have some important economic data, including the Richmond Fed, which will likely be weak on the heels of the very disappointing prints from New York, Philly, and Dallas. Besides that, New Home Sales are expected to show a modest increase, while Consumer Confidence is expected to dip from last month’s print of 134.1.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Two-Minute Warning
Please read today’s Morning Lineup to get caught up on everything you need to know ahead of the new trading week. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium for access.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 6/24/19
Morning Lineup – On Again, Off Again
After authorizing a strike on Iran last night, President Trump reportedly abruptly called it off, putting the US’s response to the shooting down of a drone over international waters into question again. US futures, understandably, are trading modestly lower on the uncertainty as the on again off again series of breakouts to new highs pauses again. Since January of last year, the S&P 500 has now made four separate runs to new highs, but in the grand scheme of things has little to show for it, although so far in 2019, the first half is shaping up to be a very good one.
Ahead of the weekend today, there are no earnings reports to speak of, but we will get PMI data from Markit for June, and US Existing Home Sales at 10 AM
Please read today’s Morning Lineup for a discussion of the latest events surrounding Iran, the latest Flash PMIs from Europe and Asia, as well as some strong data on the French Labor market.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 6/21/19
The ongoing tensions in Iran have provided a much-needed boost to oil prices. Through this morning, WTI crude has rallied 9.54% on the week. If this pace holds through the close, it will be the best week for ‘black gold’ since December 2016.
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Morning Lineup – New Highs
Markets slept on yesterday’s Fed-fest and decided they liked it. The S&P 500 has its sight set on record highs, while the Nasdaq isn’t far behind. The 10-year yield dipped below 2% overnight and is still slightly below that psychological level as of now, and the yield curve (10y vs 3m) is still firmly inverted at negative 14 bps.
There’s a decent chunk of economic data to contend with this morning as initial (220K) and continuing (1,680K) jobless claims will be released at 8:30 along with the Philly Fed (+10.7). Then at 10:00, we’ll get Leading Indicators for May (+0.1). While jobless claims are always closely watched, the Philly Fed will also be under the microscope as investors look for insight as to whether the Empire Manufacturing report earlier this week was a one-off or the beginning of a trend.
Please read today’s Morning Lineup for our take on the biggest momentum trade in the market right now, the breakout in gold, and international economic data overnight.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 6/20/19
As mentioned in a post yesterday afternoon, while US markets crave dovish Fed commentary, emerging markets love it even more. The main reason? It weakens the dollar. Another group of stocks that like a weaker dollar as much as emerging markets is US multi-nationals. The top chart below shows the performance of our S&P 500 Domestics and Internationals indices over the last 12-months. While the Domestics are already at record highs, it has been the Internationals that have outperformed in the most recent leg higher. Since the low on June 3rd, the Internationals have rallied 8.6% compared to a gain of just 4.5% for the Domestics.
In the lower chart, we compare the performance spread between the Domestics and Internationals to the Bloomberg US Dollar Index. The two have tracked each other relatively closely over time, although the addition of tariffs to the mix shook the relationship up a bit earlier this year. With the dollar under pressure again this morning and on pace for its worst day since January, you can expect to see Internationals continue to lead, and then any additional positive news on trade will only add fuel to the fire.
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Morning Lineup – Quiet Ahead of Fed
Markets are on the quiet side this morning as traders await the big interest rate policy statement from the FOMC along with the latest updates to their economic forecasts and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Asian equities traded higher in reaction to yesterday’s strength in the US, and European markets are trading on either side of the flatline. With regards to the FOMC. we would note that since Powell stepped into his role as Fed chief, there has only been one meeting day (out of ten) where stocks finished in positive territory for the day. He’s going to have to break out of this rut at some point!
Please read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of overnight moves in Asian markets, the latest export data out of Japan, and economic data in Europe.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 6/19/19
Semis rallied over 4% on Tuesday as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had its best day since late January. We’ve discussed the leadership traits of the semis in terms of their relative strength versus the S&P 500 a lot over the months, and that leadership was tested earlier this week as the group now looks (for now) to have successfully tested its lows from earlier this month. They’re still not in the clear, but this afternoon’s Fed meeting and the upcoming US-China talks at the G-20 are sure to play a role in how things play out.
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Morning Lineup – Tired of Winning
While the US has been facing its own concerns regarding the state of the economy, there is widespread agreement that conditions are better here than other areas of the world. The latest indication this morning comes out of Europe as ECB President Mario Draghi suggested that “in the absence of improvement…additional stimulus will be required.” It’s great that the US economy is doing relatively well, but it has resulted in central banks around the world taking an easier stance towards monetary policy as the FOMC’s last move was a rate hike. The President is getting tired of all this winning and this morning vented his frustration again on Twitter, saying the latest comments from Draghi were “unfair to U.S.”
Please read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of Draghi’s comments, the latest inflation data out of Europe, and housing data out of Australia.
Bespoke Morning Lineup – 6/18/19
Markets will face a big test tomorrow as the Fed will announce its latest policy move on interest rates. While it is likely no change to rates is made at the meeting, the market is obviously waiting for clarity as to what will happen going forward. Will the Fed move towards the market and the President (more cuts), or will it try to jawbone the markets closer to its view (fewer cuts)? That’s the big question, and while there is the potential for a volatile market reaction, the VIX is moving to multi-week lows ahead of the meeting. Just this morning, it dropped back below 15 and is now back below its 50-DMA for the first time since early May.
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