Oct 8, 2025
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“The harder life is for a man when he is young, the easier it will be in the future.” – Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After across-the-board declines yesterday, futures are looking to regroup this morning as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to open higher by about 0.2%. Treasury yields are modestly higher, and gold went through 4,000 like a hot knife through butter. Along with the increase in gold, other precious metals are also up even more, with platinum spiking over 2% while Palladium is up 4.5%! Even crude oil is trading higher this morning as WTI gains 1.5% to $62.70 per barrel. Finally, after a rough day in the crypto space yesterday, Bitcoin is up 1% while Ethereum is marginally higher at just under $4,500.
In Asia, China remains closed, but Japan, Hong Kong, and India are all lower after Japan’s October Tankan Index declined relative to September. In Europe, the tone is much more positive with the STOXX 600 rallying 0.7% and broad-based strength across the continent. In Germany, Industrial Production declined 4.3% m/m in August versus forecasts for a drop of just 1.0%, so whatever you think about growth in the US, Europe isn’t doing much better.
Sometimes the market moves just because investors are looking for an excuse to buy or sell. Yesterday could have been a case of the latter. The S&P 500 headed into yesterday with seven days in a row of gains, while the Nasdaq traded higher in six of the prior seven days, but those streaks didn’t even begin to illustrate how hot some sectors of the market have become, and you can’t fault investors for getting a little nervous. In fact, it’s very encouraging! Just as the quote above says, a little pain is good for the soul.
With investors already nervous, a report from The Information suggesting that margins in Oracle’s (ORCL) cloud business were thinner than expected was just the excuse they needed to take some profits. The report suggested that gross margins on the $900 million in revenue that the company generated from its Nvidia (NVDA) cloud business were just 14%, which is less than a quarter of the company’s overall gross margin of 70%.
Within minutes of the story being published, ORCL shares plunged 7% and the Nasdaq traded down over 1%. As shown in the chart below, while the magnitude of their respective moves after the report was published were different, the patterns were basically identical. Within 90 minutes, though, shares of ORCL started to rebound as “sources familiar with the situation” said The Information article was off base. By the end of the day, shares had erased more than half of their initial decline, finishing the day down 2.5%. The Nasdaq, however, didn’t bounce. While the declines didn’t intensify in the afternoon, the index finished right near where it traded after the initial release of the ORCL story.
There are multiple ways to read the divergence between ORCL and the Nasdaq intraday yesterday, and they could all be wrong. But one way to look at it is that investors looking for an excuse to take profits got just what they needed with the ORCL story, and once they rang the register, they were in no hurry to get back in. As the saying goes, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.”
Oct 7, 2025
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“We learn from history that we don’t learn from history!” – Desmond Tutu
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There’s not a lot going on in the futures market this morning, and once again, it will be another day without any economic data as the government remains closed. At this point, very few people have been affected by the shutdown, but as paydays come and go, the switchboards in DC will start heating up.
While there’s no economic data on the calendar, plenty of Fed officials are likely to speak, including Fed governors Bowman and Miran as well as Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. The next Fed meeting is just three weeks away, and markets currently expect a 93% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut.
In Asian markets overnight, it was a quiet session. China and South Korea were closed while Japan finished marginally higher after trading up over 1% earlier in the session. The Yen weakened against the dollar again following the weekend election results as the likelihood of rate hikes declines, although a 30-year auction with a relatively high bid-to-cover ratio calmed some investor nerves.
European stocks are trading higher but by modest amounts, with the STOXX 600 trading up 0.2% with Italy (+0.6%) and France (+0.4%) leading the gains. German stocks aren’t performing as well following an unexpected decline in August Factory Orders (-0.8% vs 1.2%).
If you just looked at the performance of Nvidia (NVDA), which fell 1.1% yesterday, you probably would have thought semis had a bad day as well. You would have thought wrong. While NVDA was down, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) finished up 2.9%, and 24 of the index’s 30 components finished higher on the day. The scatter chart below compares the performance of NVDA (x-axis) to the SOX on every day since the launch of ChatGPT on 11/30/22, and during these 714 trading days, there have only been three where the SOX was up over 2.5% and NVDA traded down at least 1% on the day. In the post ChatGPT world, the SOX usually doesn’t rally without NVDA.
Given the broad strength in semis yesterday, the SOX continued it’s breakout from the summer consolidation and rallied to new highs yesterday. In the process, its price is now higher than the price of the S&P 500, something that only happened on a handful of other days back in 2004.
After yesterday’s rally, the SOX is now more than 31% above its 200-DMA. While that’s not unheard of for a volatile index like the SOX, the move from extreme oversold in April to extreme overbought now has been swift. In the span of 121 trading days, the SOX went from more than 25% below its 200-DMA to more than 25% above it. These kinds of reversals in the index have been uncommon.
Oct 6, 2025
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“A minute’s success pays the failure of years.” – Robert Browning
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If futures are any indication, today would be the S&P 500’s seventh straight day of gains as positive international markets, M&A news, and the government shutdown continue to provide an upside lift to equities. Overnight, the Nikkei rallied more than 4.7% for its best day since April after the election of Takaichi as the new leader of the LDP. Takaichi is a noted dove, and her advisers have already come out against a fall rate hike by the BoJ. The rally in Japanese stocks has been accompanied by rising yields and a weak yen, so despite the big gain on a nominal basis, the EWJ ETF is only up a bit more than 1%.
In Europe, the tone isn’t as positive, but the STOXX 600 is still in positive territory with a gain of 0.1%. At the country level, Germany and the UK are higher, while France, Italy, and Spain are all lower. France is notably weak, with a decline of 1.3% as PM Lecornu resigned, continuing the trend of political turmoil in the country.
Getting back to the US, the data calendar is light today and for the remainder of the week (with or without a shutdown), and earnings season won’t really start until next week, although we’ll hear from Constellation Brands (STZ) after the close today and then Delta (DAL) and Pepsi (PEP) on Thursday.
Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are on pace to trade more than 25% higher this morning on news of its chip supply deal and equity investment with OpenAI. If AMD manages to finish the day with a gain of 27% or more (a percentage level it has reached throughout the morning), it will rank as the second-largest one-day gain for the stock since at least 1985.
With today’s gain, shares of AMD will also be trading at “extremely extreme” overbought levels. Over the last 45 years, there have only been a handful of other days when the stock traded four or more standard deviations above its 50-DMA, and if the stock holds onto these gains throughout the trading session, today would be another one.
Oct 3, 2025
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“I’m a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.” – Thomas Jefferson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are higher again this morning as the S&P 500 looks to push further into record territory with a gain of 0.23%. Gains in the Nasdaq are more than twice as much as the index looks to start the session with a gain of half a percent. Oil prices are lower, trading at $61.5 per barrel, while the 10-year yield is very little changed at a very well-behaved 4.10%. Gold is fractionally higher, while silver is lower, and other precious metals like platinum and palladium are up closer to 2%. Even copper is up over 1.5%. Crypto is also having a strong morning as Bitcoin rallies more than 1% to $119K and Ether is right below $4,400.
We’re supposed to get weekly jobless claims at 8:30, but those will be delayed by the shutdown. But Challenger Job Cuts declined 25.8% year/year.
Overnight in Asia, it was a very strong session as the Nikkei was up nearly 1%, while Hong Kong, Korea, and Australia all surged over 1%. Korea surged 2.7% taking its YTD gain up to 48%! The overnight gain was driven by rallies in Samsung and SK Hynix, which rallied 4.7% and 12%, respectively, after the two companies announced an advanced memory chip deal with OpenAI. These two stocks have also been driving most of the gains for Korea all year.
In Europe this morning, we’re also seeing broad-based strength as the STOXX 600 gains 0.7% with Germany and France leading the way with gains over 1%. This morning’s strength comes as Unemployment for the region unexpectedly increased to 6.3% from 6.2%
The rally in gold just keeps chugging along. This morning, prices are once again attempting to close above $3,900 for the first time, on pace for the sixth straight day of gains and the ninth daily gain in the last ten. Investors have been looking in awe at charts like Nvidia (NVDA), Western Digital (WDC), and other hyper-growth stocks, but gold is screaming “what about me?” as its chart has also gone vertical. As of this morning, the price is more than 10% above its 50-day moving average (DMA) and 22% above the 200-DMA.
On a quarterly basis, gold is also reaching rare air. Its Q3 gain of 16.1% was the eighth straight, which ranks as the third-longest quarterly winning streak since at least the early 1970s. The longest was 12 quarters ending fourteen years ago in Q3 2011, while the second longest ended at nine in Q4 2020.
Besides the 16% gain last quarter, gold has also had three other double-digit percentage quarterly gains during the current streak. In total, gold’s price has more than doubled in the last eight quarters, and as shown in the chart below, it has been the largest eight-quarter gain since Q1 1981. Most people have literally never seen anything like it!
Oct 2, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The most common market take can be described as “person who didn’t see this coming is now 100% confident about what happens next.” – Morgan Housel
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are higher again this morning as the S&P 500 looks to push further into record territory with a gain of 0.23%. Gains in the Nasdaq are more than twice as much as the index looks to start the session with a gain of half a percent. Oil prices are lower, trading at $61.5 per barrel, while the 10-year yield is very little changed at a very well-behaved 4.10%. Gold is fractionally higher, while silver is lower, and other precious metals like platinum and palladium are up closer to 2%. Even copper is up over 1.5%. Crypto is also having a strong morning as Bitcoin rallies more than 1% to $119K and Ether is right below $4,400.
We’re supposed to get weekly jobless claims at 8:30, but those will be delayed by the shutdown. But Challenger Job Cuts declined 25.8% year/year.
Overnight in Asia, it was a very strong session as the Nikkei was up nearly 1%, while Hong Kong, Korea, and Australia all surged over 1%. Korea surged 2.7% taking its YTD gain up to 48%! The overnight gain was driven by rallies in Samsung and SK Hynix, which rallied 4.7% and 12%, respectively, after the two companies announced an advanced memory chip deal with OpenAI. These two stocks have also been driving most of the gains for Korea all year.
In Europe this morning, we’re also seeing broad-based strength as the STOXX 600 gains 0.7% with Germany and France leading the way with gains over 1%. This morning’s strength comes as Unemployment for the region unexpectedly increased to 6.3% from 6.2%
The rally in gold just keeps chugging along. This morning, prices are once again attempting to close above $3,900 for the first time, on pace for the sixth straight day of gains and the ninth daily gain in the last ten. Investors have been looking in awe at charts like Nvidia (NVDA), Western Digital (WDC), and other hyper-growth stocks, but gold is screaming “what about me?” as its chart has also gone vertical. As of this morning, the price is more than 10% above its 50-day moving average (DMA) and 22% above the 200-DMA.
On a quarterly basis, gold is also reaching rare air. Its Q3 gain of 16.1% was the eighth straight, which ranks as the third-longest quarterly winning streak since at least the early 1970s. The longest was 12 quarters ending fourteen years ago in Q3 2011, while the second longest ended at nine in Q4 2020.
Besides the 16% gain last quarter, gold has also had three other double-digit percentage quarterly gains during the current streak. In total, gold’s price has more than doubled in the last eight quarters, and as shown in the chart below, it has been the largest eight-quarter gain since Q1 1981. Most people have literally never seen anything like it!
Oct 1, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world.” – John Muir
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street yesterday to discuss the market setup heading into the fourth quarter. To view the segment, click on the image below.
The government shut down at midnight, and futures are moderately lower this morning, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading down 0.5%. All the market-related headlines, therefore, have attributed the weakness to the shutdown, and we can only imagine that somewhere out there, Eugene Fama is smashing his head against a wall. The prospect of a shutdown has been well known for weeks now, and betting markets were pricing in a near certainty of one yesterday, so if markets really were concerned and there was even a bit of truth to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the S&P 500 wouldn’t have traded up 0.4% yesterday. So, why is the market lower? There could be multiple reasons, and the fact that it’s the first day of a new quarter, where investors rebalance their holdings, could be one of them.
Outside of equities, US Treasury yields are modestly lower, oil is down half a percent, and gold is up 1% and above $3,900 as it marches towards $4,000 per ounce. Crypto is catching a bid with Bitcoin up 2%, while Ethereum and Solana are both up 4%.
On the data calendar this morning, we got the ADP report at 8:15, which showed an unexpected decline, and ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will hit the tape at 10 AM. Despite the weaker ADP report, futures have seen little reaction.
In international markets, Japan finished the first day of the quarter with a decline of nearly 1% following a weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI reading, while India and South Korea traded up nearly 1%. Both Hong Kong and China were closed for holidays. European stocks are higher across the board, with the STOXX 600 up 0.7% despite a slightly weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI reading that remained in contraction territory.
As we head into the final quarter of the year, we wanted to take a look at the 12-month moves of some major asset classes over the last five decades to see how the recent moves stack up relative to history.
Starting with equities, the S&P 500’s total return of 15.8% over the last year is surprisingly only modestly better than the long-term average of 13.2%, ranking in just the 53rd percentile relative to history. Last year at this time, the trailing 12-month return was over 35%!
Treasury yields remain stuck in their bear market. While a decline of 3% doesn’t really seem like a big deal, we’re talking about treasuries here – traditionally referred to as a risk-free asset. Not only that, but the average 12-month return has been closer to 8%, and there have only been two months in the last five years when the trailing 12-month return was better than the long-term average.
Gold is off to one of the hottest starts in decades this year, and over the last 12 months, its 45.7% gain ranks as the strongest since the mid-2000s, and the only period where there was a significantly larger 12-month gain was in the late 1970s/early 1980s.
