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“People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.” – Otto von Bismarck

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Election Day is now less than a week away, and for those trying to keep up, below is a snapshot of where the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls stand nationally and in key battleground states this morning compared to how they looked on this same day during the 2020 and 2016 Election Cycles.

As you can see, both Biden and Clinton were up significantly in most battleground states at this point in 2020 and 2016, while Trump is currently slightly ahead in all of the key states except for Michigan, which flipped back to Harris in the last day.

There are any number of ways that either side can analyze or spin the current polling numbers, prediction tools, and betting markets at this point, so we’re simply providing the numbers from RCP and leaving it at that.  Anyone that feels confident that they know how things will turn out should probably just sit back and eat a slice of humble pie.

As shown below, the S&P 500 (SPY) has been mostly trending sideways over the last couple of weeks after a strong start to the month.

The sideways action has allowed the S&P’s 10-day advance/decline line to cool down and move back into negative territory.