Oct 29, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“People don’t care about what you say, they care about what you build.” – Mark Zuckerberg
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a day that doesn’t begin with “S” which these days means that stocks are poised to open higher with the S&P 500 indicated to open up 0.25% while the Nasdaq looks likely to gap up 0.43% at the open ahead of what will be a big day for earnings as three of the megacaps – Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) – will report after the close. Also, don’t forget today’s Fed decision at 2 PM Eastern.
With equities indicated higher, treasury yields have also moved higher, but at 3.99%, the 10-year yield remains below 4%. Crude oil prices are slightly higher, while gold has rallied more than 1%, moving back above $4,000 per ounce.
In Asia, most indices were higher as positive headlines emerged from the President’s trip to the region. Consumer sentiment in Japan came in higher than expected, but inflation in Australia came in unexpectedly high. All eyes in the region will now shift to tomorrow’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi after headlines this morning suggest that China has already placed soybean orders with American farmers, while the US is likely to reduce fentanyl-related tariffs. The positive tone in Asia made its way over to Europe as the STOXX 600 rallies 0.3% with the UK and Spain up more than twice that.
With Asian stocks mostly higher overnight, South Korea, after announcing a trade deal with the US, saw the KOSPI rally 1.8% to another in what has been a string of recent record highs. For the year, the KOSPI has now rallied more than 70%, which pretty much outdoes every other major stock market around the world on a YTD basis. Not only has the KOSPI rallied, but with its currency rallying against the dollar this year, from the perspective of a US investor, the gains are even greater at 76.1%. Even in euro terms, South Korean stocks are up over 57%!
The gains in the KOSPI have also been consistent. Through last night’s close, the index traded higher on nearly 62% of all trading days, putting it on pace for the highest percentage of up days in a year on record. The only two other years when up days exceeded 60% were 1987 (61.0%) and 2020 (61.3%).
In the US, where we’ve seen strength this year has been at the opening bell. Just like today, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has gapped up at the open on 61.7% of all trading days. Since its inception, the only years with a higher percentage of positive gaps were 1999 (63.5%) and 1997 (62.1%), while 1996, 2021, and 2024 were the only three other years when SPY gapped up at the open more than 60% of the time.
Much of the strength in SPY at the opening bell has come more recently since the tariff-tantrum. Over the last 50 trading days, SPY has gapped up at the open on more than two-thirds of trading days, and back in August, that percentage spiked up to a record high of 80%, exceeding the twin peaks of 76% from February 1997 and March 1999. What makes the current spike even more unique is the fact that it immediately followed a period of extreme selling at the open. Just as recently as this Spring, SPY gapped down on nearly two-thirds of all trading days, which was the lowest reading since December 2006.
Oct 28, 2025
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“We are like chameleons, we take our hue and the color of our moral character, from those who are around us.” – John Locke
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a positive start to the week, stocks are taking a breather this morning as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are indicated just fractionally higher, while a 5%+ rally in UnitedHealth (UNH) in reaction to earnings has the Dow indicated to open up closer to 0.40%. The muted gains in the US follow what has mostly been a modestly negative session in Asia and Europe.
The pace of earnings has really picked up, and tomorrow will be the biggest day of earnings season in terms of market cap with Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) all on deck to report. Besides earnings reports, this morning we’ll also get the October Richmond Fed report and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM Eastern.
It’s been quite a week for stocks as the major US equity indices have broken out to new record highs, and S&P 500 7000 has entered the conversation. As noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, though, breadth has been somewhat weak. Another example of that weak breadth is in overall sector performance. As shown in the snapshot below showing sector ETF performance, over the five trading days ended yesterday, the only one outperforming SPY is Technology (XLK) with a gain of 3.75%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is close (2.03% vs 2.10%) but not good enough. Besides XLY, the only two other sector ETFs whose performance is within even one percentage point of the S&P 500 are Energy (XLE) and Industrials (XLI).
At the other end of the spectrum, the sectors underperforming are mostly what you would expect to see in an environment where the market rallies. Consumer Staples (XLP) is the lone decliner with a loss of 0.55% while Materials (XLB) and Utilities (XLU) have only seen modest gains of 0.10% or less. While XLU has underperformed over the last week, it remains one of just three sectors with a gain of more than 20% on the year.
Shifting focus, with the government shutdown now set to enter its fifth week at midnight tonight, we wanted to look at how sectors have performed so far this month to see what, if any, impact it has had on performance. With a gain of 2.8% MTD through yesterday, it’s hard to say that the market has been impacted. Leading the way higher, Technology, Health Care, and Utilities have all seen gains of 5% or more, while Communication Services is the only other sector that has outperformed the S&P 500. To the downside, Materials (-1.69%), Financials (-1.13%), and Energy (-0.89%) are the only sectors to have experienced declines. It’s also worth noting that Consumer Discretionary has managed a gain of just over 1%, so even with so many Americans relying on the Federal government for either pay or benefits, and those paychecks and benefits poised to dry up, at least temporarily, it appears that the sector has held up.
There’s always a but, though. If we look at sector performance on an unweighted basis, performance for the month looks much different. For the market as a whole, while the cap-weighted index is up 2.79%, on an unweighted basis, the gain is less than half that at 1.11%. One of the most notable shifts in performance, though, is in the Consumer Discretionary sector where the 1.11% gain on a market cap weighted basis shifts to a decline of 0.19% on an unweighted basis as MTD gains in the sector’s trillion dollar stocks (Amazon.com and Tesla) don’t carry nearly the weight on an equal-weighted as they do on a cap weighted basis.
Oct 27, 2025
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“If you could kick the person in the pants responsible for most of your trouble, you wouldn’t sit for a month.” – Theodore Roosevelt
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
A flurry of trade deals announced over the weekend and this morning has futures surging, with the S&P 500 indicated to open up about 0.8% and the Nasdaq indicated to rally more than 1%. It should be noted, however, that current levels are off the overnight highs. With most of the announced deals being connected to Asia, that is where the biggest gains were seen overnight as the Nikkei rallied 2.5% while China gained more than 1%. European stocks have been much more subdued this morning as the STOXX 600 is just marginally higher and major benchmarks on the continent trade on either side of the unchanged line.
With investors taking more of a risk on approach, treasury yields are higher, with the 10-year yield moving back above 4% to 4.03%. Crude oil is fractionally lower along with gold as it tries to recover after breaking a streak of nine weekly gains last week. Finally, after a rough go of it in recent weeks, Bitcoin is up again after a strong weekend, taking it back above $115K while Ethereum is up over $4,100.
As mentioned above, gold ended a streak of nine straight weekly gains last week during which it rallied more than 25%. Since 1975, it was just the fifth time that gold traded higher for at least nine weeks and the first such streak since August 2020. Of the four prior streaks, only one in 2007 lasted longer (12). Of the four prior streaks, after the first down week that ended the streak, gold continued lower over the following three months three times for a median decline of 4.6%, and a year later it was lower three out of four times as well for a median decline of 7%.
As shown in the chart below, gold’s decline last week was a sharp reversal from record highs hit just last week and was one of the larger drawdowns we have seen in the commodity over the last year. Despite the decline, though, gold remains well above its 50 and 200-DMAs.
Oct 24, 2025
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“If everything you try works, you aren’t trying hard enough.” – Gordon Moore
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US stocks are on pace to end the week on a positive note as S&P 500 futures indicate a 0.33% gap higher at the open, while the Nasdaq is up 0.50%. Treasury yields are higher as the 10-year yield is back above 4%, and crude oil remains above $60 with WTI trading up 1%. Gold, on the other hand, is down 1.7% and on pace to end its nine-week streak of gains. Finally, crypto is higher with Bitcoin up 0.6% and back above $111K, while Ethereum gets back up near $4K with a gain of 2.3%.
Overnight, Asia was mostly higher with Japan up 1.35% after declining 1.35% Thursday. For the week, most major indices were up multiple percentage points, although India and Australia only managed modest gains. The tone is less positive in Europe this morning as most major indices experience modest declines, but for the week, they’re all comfortably higher.
We finally got a government-run economic indicator as the BLS summoned workers back into the office to tabulate the September CPI, which came in weaker than expected across the board. While still well above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s moving in the right direction.
It’s been a while now, but after nine trading days bouncing around within the intraday range from 10/10, the S&P 500 is poised to test the upper end of that range at the open today. If the streak ends, it will be tied for the longest run of days trading within a prior day’s intraday range in at least 40 years. In our Chart of the Day from Tuesday, we covered these prior streaks and how the S&P 500 performed going forward, so make sure to check that out.
While the S&P 500 has been rangebound for two weeks now, like the rest of the world, it has been a positive week. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the performance of various regional global ETFs. As shown, it’s been somewhat of a uniform move with every ETF trading higher to varying degrees over the last week, and all four moving into overbought territory. One of the biggest outliers, though, is in YTD performance. While every other regional equity ETF has rallied at least 27% YTD, the US is up barely more than half that, with a gain of ‘only’ 14.6%.
Oct 23, 2025
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“If you want to increase your success rate, double your failure rate.” – Thomas J. Watson, Sr
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We may be starting to sound like a broken record, but once again this morning, futures are little changed with a downside bias, and the government is still closed. With the Fed in blackout ahead of next week’s rate decision, the only data the market has to focus on domestically is earnings. Overall, the pace of reports continues to come in positively with EPS and sales beat rates in excess of 70%. Also on the subject of broken records, it’s now been eight trading days where the S&P 500 has been stuck within the range it traded in on 10/10.
While the government may be closed, Washington is far from quiet, with the latest news being reports that the Trump Administration is in talks to acquire stakes of up to $10 million in various quantum computing stocks, including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum. Obviously, these stocks are surging in reaction to the news, and as a result have mostly erased yesterday’s declines. It’s worth pointing out, however, that after the gains these stocks have seen in the last couple of years, their market caps are all at or above $10 billion; a $10 million investment works out to less than 0.1%.
Outside of equities, crude oil is surging 5% and back above $60 per barrel after yesterday’s latest round of sanctions against Russian oil companies. Gold is also trying to regroup after the sell-off from the last couple of days, rallying 1.5% and back above $4,100 per ounce, while silver and platinum are both up at least 2.5%. Even Bitcoin and Ethereum have managed to rally more than 1%.
In international markets, Asian stocks were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei falling 1.4% and the Kospi dropping a percent. Hong Kong (0.7%), China (0.2%), India (0.2%), and Australia (0.1%) all managed to finish higher. The tone in Europe this morning is skewed more positive, with the STOXX 600 rallying 0.3% with little in the way of catalysts besides earnings driving the action.
The 10-year yield remains below 4% this morning after trading yesterday at its lowest level since the tariff-tantrum in April. While it wasn’t enough for a 52-week low on an intraday basis, on a closing basis, it was the lowest level since early October of last year. Since peaking at just under 4.6% in May, the 10-year yield has been stuck in a very consistent downtrend channel, and has been moving towards the lower end of that range all month.
Oct 22, 2025
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“Women who seek to be equal with men lack ambition” – Timothy Leary
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The post 10/8 range-bound slog looks set to continue for the S&P 500 today as it enters its eighth day in a row of trading within its intraday range from 10/10. S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged, while Nasdaq futures point to a modest decline. Yesterday’s weakness in gold and other precious metals has continued this morning, with gold down more than 1%, and while the crypto markets had a positive reversal yesterday, they’re giving it all back today as volatility in that space continues.
Overnight in Asia, most indices saw modest declines, although South Korea managed to buck the trend as it seems nothing can keep the Kospi down. European shares are mixed. The STOXX 600 is trading modestly higher on the session, led higher by the FTSE 100 and Spain’s Ibex 35, while Italy is down 0.5%. This morning’s strength in the UK was catalyzed by a much weaker than expected September CPI report, which showed no change in consumer prices relative to forecasts for an increase of 0.2%.
It’s now been two weeks since the S&P 500’s last record high, and while the S&P 500 has seen just marginal declines, some of the moves within sectors have been much larger. As shown in the chart below, Real Estate and Consumer Staples have both rallied over 2% and join Communication Services as the three sectors with gains of over 1%. To the downside, five sectors have declined since the 10/8 high, but four of them are down over 1%, including Energy (-2.4%) and Materials (-1.8%). Technology has also slumped 1.1%, which has acted as the main driver of the index’s decline.
At the individual stock level, it’s been an eclectic mix of winners and losers. Starting with the winners, General Motors (GM) tops the list after yesterday’s post-earnings surge, and it’s one of seven stocks in the S&P 500 that have rallied over 10% since the 10/8 peak. While many of the 20 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 are handily up YTD, they aren’t exactly the typical winners investors have been used to seeing throughout most of the year. The sector breakdown of these winners further illustrates that trend, as nearly half of the names listed are either from the Health Care (5) or Consumer Staples (4) sectors.
Shifting to the biggest losers, eight stocks in the S&P 500 have seen double-digit percentage declines since the 10/8 peak. Leading the way to the downside, Mosaic (MOS) has declined more than 16%. While many stocks listed have underperformed this year, for stocks like Robinhood (HOOD), Paramount (PSKY), Vistra (VST), Dell (DELL), and Interactive Brokers (IBKR), it has been a pause to potentially refresh.
At the sector level, Financials has been most heavily represented, with over a third of the names listed as concerns in the credit markets have hit some of the names in the sector hard. After Financials, the next most heavily represented sectors are Energy and Technology, with four each.
