Mar 27, 2019
What are the odds of a recession coming at some point in the next three years?
In order to more precisely quantify recession risks, we took four economic indicators related to the labor market (the Conference Board’s Current Situation indicator, the Jobs Hard to Get—Jobs Plentiful spread, the unemployment rate, and the 6m rate of change in each month’s initial jobless claims average) and four rates market indicators (the 3m5y curve, the 3m10y curve, the 5y30y curve, and the real Fed Funds rate) and ran probit regressions against the binary condition “did a recession start at some point over the next X years.”
A probit regression is very similar to linear regression, but instead of continuous variables, the regression is run against a binary data point. The result is a probability of a binary outcome based on continuous inputs; given a certain set of data points, what are the odds we enter recession? We note that for the real Fed Funds and unemployment rates, we use February data for March; all other variables are either March or March-to-date.
To read our findings, start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional. Then come back to this post.
Mar 25, 2019
Apple (AAPL) will hold an event today at 1PM Eastern where the company is expected to make some big announcements. In addition to updated versions of existing products like their iMacs, iPads, and AirPods, Apple is expected to announce the launch of its own Netflix-like streaming service. That will also not be the only subscription service that the company is rumored to be revealing. It has also been circulated that AAPL plans to unveil a new subscription news service, taking advantage of their already popular news app. In our latest B.I.G. Tips report, we provide a summary of how AAPL stock has performed leading up to and after major product/services announcements over the years, and below we provide an annotated chart of AAPL over the years with color-coded circles to highlight announcements/releases of various products in its stable. To gain access to the full report, please start a two-week free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
Mar 19, 2019
The S&P 500’s gain of 1.55% on the January 30th Fed Day ended a streak of 18 consecutive Fed Days without a 1%+ gain for the index. The gain also ended a 7 Fed Day streak of declines for the S&P 500 dating back to the start of Chair Powell’s tenure. Both streaks were the longest on record dating back to 1994 when the Fed began announcing its policy decisions on the same day as its meeting. We’ve just published a B.I.G. Tips report covering the topics you need to know ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting. To gain access to the full report, please start a two-week free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
