The Bespoke Report – And Then There Was One

Jan 25, 2019

US equities took a bit of a breather this week from their torrid rally off the Christmas Eve lows.  While anyone long equities would like to see the market trade consistently higher, nothing moves in a straight line.  At this point, the sideways trading this week can still be considered nothing more than a pause as the market looks to catch its breath. Next week, though, we should get a lot more clarity on which way this market wants to move as the FOMC will announce its latest views on monetary policy Wednesday, followed by a Jerome Powell Press conference.  Just as important, the pace of earnings reports for Q4 will pick up even more steam as nearly a quarter of the S&P 500 (122 companies) will report numbers.

Looking at where some of the major US averages closed out the week, one of these pictures doesn’t look like the others.  As shown in the four charts below, in this week’s trading, the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, and the Russell 2000 all appear to have broken their downtrends from the October highs.  The lone holdout at this point is the S&P 500, which finished the week just shy.  Breadth for the S&P 500 has been very strong lately (page 30), so now all we need is price to confirm it.  Something tells us that next week we’ll have a good idea either way!

For in-depth analysis of recent price action, sector technicals, earnings season, the economy, and more, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels and read this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter.  You won’t be disappointed!

The Bespoke Report — Call It A Comeback

Jan 18, 2019

2019 continues to track the complete opposite of what we saw in Q4 2018, with the hardest hit areas during Q4 bouncing the most off of their lows this year.  Smallcaps are leading the way with gains of nearly 10% on the year, while Energy (XLE) leads all sectors at +11.32% on the back of oil’s (USO) 17% surge.  Brazil (EWZ) leads all countries in our ETF matrix with a YTD gain of 13%, which is a rare continuation of what we saw for Brazil to end 2018.  Canada (EWC) is also posting a solid showing in 2019 with a double-digit percentage gain already.  The only areas of weakness are India (PIN), precious metals, and Treasuries.

For in-depth analysis of recent price action, sector technicals, earnings season, the economy, and more, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels and read this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter.  You won’t be disappointed!

The Bespoke Report — Fresh Lows

Dec 14, 2018

We’ve just published our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter for subscribers (learn more here).  Below is one of many tables and charts featured in this week’s report.  The table shows all years in which the S&P 500 fell 10%+ in the fourth quarter.  As shown, Q4 2018 is tracking to be just the 10th time since 1928 that the S&P has fallen 10%+ in Q4.  Not good.  And unfortunately, when Q4s have been bad for the S&P, the following Q1s have been bad more often than not as well.  For more in-depth analysis, start a free trial to any membership level and access the full Bespoke Report.