The Bespoke Report — Call It A Comeback

2019 continues to track the complete opposite of what we saw in Q4 2018, with the hardest hit areas during Q4 bouncing the most off of their lows this year.  Smallcaps are leading the way with gains of nearly 10% on the year, while Energy (XLE) leads all sectors at +11.32% on the back of oil’s (USO) 17% surge.  Brazil (EWZ) leads all countries in our ETF matrix with a YTD gain of 13%, which is a rare continuation of what we saw for Brazil to end 2018.  Canada (EWC) is also posting a solid showing in 2019 with a double-digit percentage gain already.  The only areas of weakness are India (PIN), precious metals, and Treasuries.

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The Bespoke Report — Fresh Lows

We’ve just published our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter for subscribers (learn more here).  Below is one of many tables and charts featured in this week’s report.  The table shows all years in which the S&P 500 fell 10%+ in the fourth quarter.  As shown, Q4 2018 is tracking to be just the 10th time since 1928 that the S&P has fallen 10%+ in Q4.  Not good.  And unfortunately, when Q4s have been bad for the S&P, the following Q1s have been bad more often than not as well.  For more in-depth analysis, start a free trial to any membership level and access the full Bespoke Report.