Nov 9, 2018
Midterm votes have been (mostly) tallied and Democrats retook the House, while equity markets extended their move off recent lows despite a soft end to the week. Earnings data, the strength of the US dollar, and producer price inflation all feature heavily in this week’s report, along with a full breakdown of midterm results and implications. We also review economic data, year-to-date performance by sector, equity market trends in Europe and emerging markets, the tight US labor market, and collapsing oil prices in this week’s Bespoke Report.
We’ve just published our latest weekly Bespoke Report newsletter, which is available to subscribers across all three of our membership levels. Sign up here to read the report.
To get up to speed on our thoughts regarding the market’s direction going forward, choose any membership option and access this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter after signing up! You won’t be disappointed. Some of the topics discussed in this week’s report include:
- How Do These Midterms Compare To The Past?
- Why Results Don’t Mean Too Much For Markets Going Forward
- US Stock Market Outlook: End Of The Bull Market Unlikely
- European Equity Drivers Amidst Huge Undeperformance
- Industrial Productions And Exports Sag In The Eurozone
- EM Equity Downside Momentum
- Dollar Nears New Highs, Dollar Rate of Change Starting To Bite
- 10 Year Yields Making New Highs
- Inflation Expectations Ticking Up, Producer Prices Firm For Now
- Companies Concerned About Inflation
- Labor Markets Still Looking Tight
- Investor Sentiment On The Global Economy Worsens
- Auto Sales Slow In China, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil
- Oil Price Collapse, Refining Margins Pummeled
- Earnings Update
- Intraday Versus Overnight Price Action Across Asset Classes
Oct 19, 2018
While intraday performance for stocks in the back half of this week was uninspiring at best, the S&P 500 actually closed up on the week. Some of the price action is getting extreme, especially in cyclical sectors around the world. Today 266 stocks in our Chart Scanner closed at new 52-week lows, while just 17 closed at new highs. You can get a good look at the weakness in our asset class performance matrix below.
Is the baby being thrown out with the bathwater? We discuss in detail in this week’s Bespoke Report.
We’ve just published our latest weekly Bespoke Report newsletter, which is available to subscribers across all three of our membership levels. Sign up here to read the report.
To get up to speed on our thoughts regarding the market’s direction going forward, choose any membership option and access this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter after signing up! You won’t be disappointed. Some of the topics discussed in this week’s report include:
- Does Buying Dips Below the 200-DMA Work?
- The Relationship Between Correlation & Volatility
- Seasonal Patterns In Volatility
- Dire Economic Expectations From Analysts Around The World
- Rolling Over Global Cyclical Economic Indicators
- European Equity Sectors Collapse
- Slow Eurozone Inflation
- Yields Around The World Rise
- Solid But Slowing Manufacturing Data In The US
- A Dearth Of Workers And Rising Turnover
- Weakening Housing Activity
- A One-Off Collapse In The Deficit
- Surging Transportation Costs
- An Economic Cycle Not Likely To End Soon
Oct 12, 2018
Wow! That was pretty extreme. After the most severe sell program in the market since the ‘flash crash’ of 2010 sent US equities plunging for a second straight day, the S&P 500 finished at what can only be considered a ridiculously oversold level on Thursday at more than 3.7 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. For reference, we consider 1-standard deviation below the 50-DMA to be oversold, and two standard deviations to be an ‘extreme’ oversold reading. We’ll let you use your own adjectives to describe a level nearly twice that. To put some perspective on that oversold reading, the last time the S&P 500 was more oversold was August 2015.
So, what now? There’s some good and bad news here, but only time will tell which one plays out. For some added insight, check out this week’s Bespoke Report.
We’ve just published our latest weekly Bespoke Report newsletter, which is available to subscribers across all three of our membership levels. Sign up here to read the report.
To get up to speed on our thoughts regarding the market’s direction going forward, choose any membership option and access this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter after signing up! You won’t be disappointed. Some of the topics discussed in this week’s report include:
- Extreme Oversold Markets
- China Valuation
- Global Extremes
- Worst Sell Program Since the Flash Crash
- US or International
- Growth vs Value
- Economic Surprises on the Horizon
- Earnings Season Preview – What to Watch For
- Longest Streaks Above 200-DMA
- Market Breadth
- October Parallels
- The Importance of 9.9
