The Closer – Recession Looms, GDP Composition, Quant Drivers, EIA Data – 6/29/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a note on Fed policy and the reactions in equity markets and credit spreads (page 1), we take a look at the drivers of today’s third release of Q1 GDP (page 2). We then show how various quant factors have performed during the current bear market versus the 2007 to 2009 bear market (page 3). We finish with a rundown of the past two weeks’ data from the Petroleum Status Report (pages 4 and 5).

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Happy Birthday, iPhone!

Whether it is currently in your pocket or in your hand as you read this, if you own an Apple iPhone, make sure to wish it a happy birthday. Exactly a decade and a half ago to the day, what is now the staple of the smartphone market first hit the shelves.  Much of Apple’s growth in the years since the smartphone debuted can credited to this revolutionary device.  Over the past four quarters the phone accounted for $200 billion in sales which is a 52% share of total revenues for the company.  Even though it still currently accounts for a majority of one of the world’s biggest companies’ revenues, over the past few years, that share has been on the decline having peaked at 69.4% in Q1 2017.

Since the first generation iPhone was released, the stock of Apple has posted astounding gains.  In fact, of all current S&P 500 members, AAPL ranks as the fifth best performer (based on price change) in the index since the iPhone debut 15 years ago.  The only stocks to have posted even more impressive gains have been Netflix (NFLX), DexCom (DXCM), Regeneron (RGEN), and Amazon (AMZN). That is not to mention that at its high earlier this year, Apple’s post iPhone rally stood above 4,000%!

Not only has AAPL left most of the market in the dust over the past 15 years, but it is especially the case for the stocks of other smartphone makers.  Below we show the relative strength lines of various other smartphone maker stocks versus Apple (AAPL) since the iPhone debut on June 29, 2007.  While other names like Blackberry, HTC, Samsung, and LG (the latter three are USD adjusted given they trade on various Asian markets) saw some outperformance versus Apple in the late 2000s, there has been absolutely no competition over the long run. Granted its business is diversified well beyond smartphones, but Alphabet (GOOGL) also hasn’t held a candle to Apple even though its relative strength line has been better off than many other smartphone makers.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

The Closer – Trends Intact, GDP Upside, Manufacturing Downside, Consumers Dire – 6/28/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after starting out with a look at the relationship between real yields and equities, we then show where put-call ratios stand (page 1). Switching over to macro data, we first take a look at the trade deficit (page 2) followed by the final look at our Five Fed Composite for the month of June (pages 3 – 5). We then provide a look at the deceleration in housing prices (page 6) as consumer sentiment indicators broadly tank (page 7).  We finish with a recap of the weak 7 year note auction held today (page 8).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!