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“Judge a man by his questions rather than his answers.” – Voltaire
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Nasdaq futures are up once again this morning as semis rally another 1.5% in pre-market trading. As a reminder, the Philly Sox semis index is on an 18-day win streak and hasn’t had a down day this month! Meanwhile, traders continue to sell software stocks with the ETF that tracks the group (IGV) down about half a percent ahead of the open. One day soon we expect the long semis/short software trade to unwind; it’s just a matter of when.
As we noted in Friday’s Bespoke Report (read it here if you missed it on Friday), even though the cap-weighted large-cap index ETFs like SPY and QQQ have broken out to new all-time highs, the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) looks quite different.
As shown in the lower left chart below, RSP attempted to break out but failed at resistance. On Friday, SPY rallied 0.8% even though breadth was -146 and the average stock in the index was down 0.2%.
While the Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rallied more than 2% last week, the S&P 500 (SPY) was only up 0.5%, and there were actually more sectors down (6) than up (5).
Health Care (XLV), Communication Services (XLC), Financials (XLF), Real Estate (XLRE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were all down more than 1%.
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It was a rough six months for Bitcoin longs, as the price of BTC fell by more than half from an all-time high of $126,251 last October 6th, down to the low $60,000s in Q1.
Things have turned more positive this month, though, as Bitcoin has risen from $68k at the end of March up to $79k today.
As shown below, the rally over the last week or two has pushed Bitcoin’s price above the top of the downtrend channel that had formed off the highs made late last year. We’ve also seen a series of higher lows since the intraday low was made on February 24th.
If Bitcoin continues higher, its next test will be right around $85k, which acted as support from last November through January before ultimately giving way.
That prior support will now act as resistance that could be difficult to break through on a first or second test.
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