May 8, 2025
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“Wise and humane management of the patient is the best safeguard against infection.” – Florence Nightingale
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are up roughly 1% ahead of today’s open after President Trump announced that a trade deal between the US and UK would be announced shortly. Along with the tariff news, yesterday the market managed to not trade lower after Fed Chair Powell’s press conference as it normally does.
We’ve gotten a huge number of earnings reports this week as well, and the results have been largely positive. So far in May, we’ve seen a positive reversal in guidance trends. In April, we were seeing many more companies lowering guidance than raising guidance, but that has flipped this month. Of the nearly 800 companies that have reported month-to-date, 69 have raised guidance compared to just 45 that have lowered guidance. You don’t expect to see such positivity when there’s such an “extremely elevated level of uncertainty” as Fed Chair Powell described in his FOMC comments yesterday.
Based on where it’s trading in the pre-market, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is set to test last week’s highs when it opens this morning.
May 7, 2025
We’ve been counting the number of times that “AI” has been mentioned on the conference calls of mega-cap Tech names since ChatGPT was released in late 2022, and as shown below, there has yet to be a slowdown through Q1 2025.
Both Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) mentioned “AI” a record number of times on their Q1 earnings calls, while Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) only mentioned it slightly less than the prior quarter. Apple (AAPL) mentions “AI” the least often of the mega-caps, but its 11 mentions on this quarter’s call was the highest since Q2 of last year.
NVIDIA (NVDA) was mentioning “AI” a lot on its calls well before ChatGPT’s release, and it still led all of the mega-caps in mentions in Q4 2024. NVDA is the last of the mega-caps to report later this month, so we’ll find out then if it mentions “AI” the most once again this quarter.
Google searches for “AI” absolutely skyrocketed in November 2022 when ChatGPT was first released, and as shown below, search interest continues to soar to new heights on a monthly basis. If you thought interest in “AI” would begin to wane by now, think again.
And compared to Google searches for a term like “tariffs,” which took off once President Trump took office in January, “AI” still dominates:
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May 7, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Inspiration is a guest that does not willingly visit the lazy.” – Pyotr Tchaikovsky
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While European markets are trading lower, equity futures in the US are higher by about 50 basis points this morning on positive trade talks with China.
As shown below, this week’s declines have yet to do much technical damage, but we’ll likely need a positive close today for the S&P to remain above its 50-day moving average. Right now, price is sitting in between the 50-DMA (below) and the 200-DMA (above), and the next stop on the upside will be a re-taking of the 200-DMA.
Weakness in the final hours of the trading day on Fed Days has been a hallmark of Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair. That’s actually in contrast with what we’ve seen for markets recently. The S&P is currently flat since “Liberation Day” back on April 2nd, but as shown below, we’re only flat because of intraday strength. Since 4/2, the S&P (SPY) has averaged an opening gap lower of 0.27% each day followed by an average gain of 0.28% from the open to the close.
May 6, 2025
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“I’d rather be dead than sing ‘Satisfaction’ when I’m 45.” – Mick Jagger, 1975
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After breaking a nine-day winning streak yesterday, the S&P 500 is trading down roughly 0.75-1.00% pre-market as the rally takes a breather. As shown below, 10-day advance/decline lines for many key sectors are at their most overbought levels of the past year, so downside mean reversion here should be totally expected.
While futures are lower, we’d note that it has been a strong week for earnings so far with thirteen companies raising guidance versus just three that have lowered guidance. There have also been nine triple plays already this week.
A few weeks ago we published a Chart of the Day that featured stocks that have consistently reported earnings triple plays in the past few years that also appear to be less exposed to tariffs. As shown below, many of the stocks that we highlighted have had very nice runs over the last week:
May 5, 2025
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