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“Inspiration is a guest that does not willingly visit the lazy.” – Pyotr Tchaikovsky

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

While European markets are trading lower, equity futures in the US are higher by about 50 basis points this morning on positive trade talks with China.

As shown below, this week’s declines have yet to do much technical damage, but we’ll likely need a positive close today for the S&P to remain above its 50-day moving average.  Right now, price is sitting in between the 50-DMA (below) and the 200-DMA (above), and the next stop on the upside will be a re-taking of the 200-DMA.

Weakness in the final hours of the trading day on Fed Days has been a hallmark of Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair.  That’s actually in contrast with what we’ve seen for markets recently.  The S&P is currently flat since “Liberation Day” back on April 2nd, but as shown below, we’re only flat because of intraday strength.  Since 4/2, the S&P (SPY) has averaged an opening gap lower of 0.27% each day followed by an average gain of 0.28% from the open to the close.