B.I.G. Tips – On the Downside of COVID Wave 2?
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/21/20 – The Haves and the Have Nots
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Risk assets around the globe are rallying again this morning on news that the European Council has reached an agreement to a budget and COVID recovery package. The key point of the agreement is that EU fiscal policy will be backed by mutual taxation and will be used as a fiscal stabilizer.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, global economic data, improved trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
By now you’ve heard about how uneven yesterday’s rally in the market was. While the S&P 500 was up nearly 1%, the majority of stocks in the index were actually down on the day. The chart of sector performance for the day sums things up pretty well. Consumer Discretionary (pretty much entirely the result of Amazon) was up over 3%, Technology tacked on over 2.5%, and Communication Services rallied over 1.25%. Every other sector, though, was down on the day. Not only were they down, but they were down sharply. In fact, four sectors were down over 1% even though the S&P 500 rallied 0.84%. Depending on the sectors you’re overweight in, yesterday was either really good or really bad.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 7/20/20
Amazon (AMZN) Ships the S&P Higher
The S&P 500 finished up 0.84% on Monday and the index had mega-cap stocks to thank for its gains as the majority of stocks in the S&P 500 actually finished the day lower. In fact, Amazon (AMZN) was the best performing stock in the S&P 500 having its best day since 12/26/18 rallying just under 8%. That gain alone was responsible for nearly 40 basis points of the S&P’s 84 bps gain. That means Amazon accounted for just under half of the S&P 500’s gains today. That compares to the rest of the trillion-dollar club—Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Alphabet (GOOG)—which added a collective 45.81 bps to the S&P 500. Again that is an impressive contribution when compared to the other 174 stocks that rose today, which collectively only added 53.13 bps. The remaining stocks dragged on the index by 54.45 bps. The stocks that dragged the index down the most included energy names like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), Medtronic (MDT), Philip Morris (PM), and Coca Cola (KO). In other words, big days for the largest stocks helped to dramatically boost performance masking what was overall mediocre day for most stocks. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.
This Week’s Economic Indicators – 7/20/20
Last week was a strong one for economic data with more than half of releases either beating estimates or improving from the prior period for those with no forecasts. The Treasury’s monthly budget statement was the only release on Monday, and it showed a massive increase to the deficit. Small business optimism tipped back above 100 the following day, also coming in above expectations of 97.8. CPI was the other major release on Tuesday. More inflation data followed up with import and export prices on Wednesday. Both showed further declines in June. The New York Fed’s Manufacturing reading for July exceeded estimates, rising to 17.2 while the neighboring Philly Fed showed a slight decline from 27.5 24.1. June’s Retail Sales report for June showed strong growth in sales across the board with both the headline and core measures beating estimates. Homebuilder sentiment was also strong in a later release that same morning, rising from 58 to 72. Some disappointing housing numbers rounded out the week with misses for both starts and permits.
This week, economic data will take a backseat with a lighter calendar as earnings take center stage. Although there was nothing released today, there are a dozen releases scattered throughout the rest of the week. Included in these releases will be more housing data in the form of new and existing home sales and FHFA home prices, claims, the Kansas City Fed’s activity index, and preliminary Markit PMIs. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.
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Chart of the Day: Doldrums
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/20/20 – Tech Gives Other Sectors a Chance
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Futures are modestly lower this morning, although the Nasdaq is modestly outperforming. The big news so far this morning is progress among EU members regarding a stimulus package for the region, and that has the euro trading at four-month highs versus the dollar. That’s the big news now, but the big news later could be the release of phase one COVID vaccine data out of AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, the latest on the EU stimulus package, global economic data, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
It’s been a good couple of months for the Technology sector of late, so it’s a bit out of the ordinary to see coming into a new week that Technology was the big laggard in the prior week. While the majority of sectors were up well over 1% last week, Technology was down a full percent. That kind of underperformance from the sector has been uncommon recently, but last week’s pullback proves once again that no sector, not even tech, is immune to the laws of gravity. While Technology lagged badly, sectors like Industrials, Materials, Health Care, and Utilities were all up over 4%.
Bespoke Brunch Reads: 7/19/20
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium for 3 months for just $95 with our 2020 Annual Outlook special offer.
COVID
Consumer Appetite for Cars, Homes Bolsters U.S. Economy by Sarah Chaney (WSJ)
Recent data has suggested strong demand for items that are typically financed thanks to rock-bottom interest rates like 30 year mortgages, which fell below 3% for the first time ever this week. [Link; paywall]
As Europe’s Economies Reopen, Consumers Go on a Spending Spree by Liz Alderman (NYT)
Payroll subsidy programs in Europe designed to function similarly to – though typically more comprehensively than – the US PPP program have helped keep consumers primed for a recovery in spending. [Link; soft paywall]
Booze
Teens are dressing up as mask-wearing grandmas to try to score alcohol by Marisa Dellatto (NY Post)
With masks making it harder to identify each other, underage drinkers have kitted themselves out as the elderly in an effort to obtain drink. [Link; auto-playing video]
Diageo to launch Johnnie Walker whisky in paper bottles in 2021 (Reuters)
Paper bags are out, paper bottles are in. Diageo will ship plastic-free whiskey bottles starting next year as the company tries to cut down on plastic waste; the bottles are fully recyclable. [Link]
Media
You’re Doomscrolling Again. Here’s How to Snap Out of It. by Brian X. Chen (NYT)
Bad news related to politics, COVID, or other negative events can be a semi-addictive pursuit, but there are ways to break out of the parade of darkness that so easily dominates social media feeds. [Link; soft paywall]
Newsroom or PAC? Liberal group muddies online information wars by Alex Thompson (Politico)
A new initiative is working to push liberal perspectives into social media feeds via targeted advertising, giving the appearance of being an unbiased news source. [Link]
Amenities
Desperate for a pool? You can now rent a private one by the hour by Diana Olick (CNBC)
A new app offers users the opportunity to rent out backyard pools for a price, giving families the opportunity for a little fun in the sun without laying out five figures to re-make their backyard permanently. [Link]
Connecticut Bet Big on the Suburbs. That Might Finally Pay Off. by Joseph De Avila and Jon Kamp (WSJ)
Connecticut faced years of challenges as residents opted not to live in suburbs near New York, but the COVID shock is putting new life in the leafy greenery of and spacious living that were shirked in the post-crisis years. [Link; paywall]
Regional Affairs
Why North Carolina Is the Most Linguistically Diverse U.S. State by Dan Nosowitz (Pocket/Atlas Obscura)
North Carolina’s geography has driven a unique milieu of regional English dialects which are in the process of flattening towards more standard regional or national accents. [Link]
Chance of big San Andreas earthquake increased by Ridgecrest temblors, study suggests by Rong-Gong Lin II (LAT)
Recent earthquakes in Ridgecrest may be dangerous signs about the chance of further earthquakes around the San Andreas fault, specifically the Garlock fault which runs along the Mojave Desert. [Link]
Investing
The False Bargain of Passive Investing (Applied Finance Capital Management)
An argument that passive indices generate negative alpha compared to other options, which may hold water but ignores the problem of identifying outperformance ex-ante as opposed to via backtest. [Link]
COVID
Universal Masking to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission—The Time Is Now by John T. Brook, Jay C. Butler, and Robert R. Redfield (JAMA Network)
The authors use mask orders for health care workers and later all persons in-hospital to identify changes in transmission rate thanks to masks. Simply put, universal masking makes a huge difference for transmission rates even in environments with high viral load. [Link]
Weird News
155-Acre College Campus (Maltz Auctions)
Ever thought of owning your own college? For the low price of $3mm (minimum bid), you can have a 155 acres in rural Vermont complete with library, solar panels for power, a biofuel heating system, and more! [Link]
Comedy
Desus And Mero Have Conquered Comedy by Carrie Battan (The NYer)
A profile of the dynamic Bronx duo whose unique brand of rapid-fire, familiar, and self-conscious comedy has achieved legendary status. [Link; soft paywall]
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Have a great weekend!