Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/2/21 – Water Logged
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“You are remembered for the rules you break.” – Douglas MacArthur
Things are getting off to a slow start this morning (sorry for the delay) as the New York metro area tries to dry out from some massive flooding in the area which has shut down roads, highways, and mass transit. If this had occurred a few years ago, people would be wondering how they would get to work this morning, but in the post-COVID world, work for many people is as close as the nearest computer.
Equity futures are modestly higher again this morning as the ‘everything’ rally continues. Jobless claims were just released and came in lower than expected on both an initial and continuing basis and falling to post-pandemic lows. Later this morning, we’ll get updates on Factory Orders and Durable Goods.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
The everything rally is also giving a lift to the crypto space this morning as bitcoin has traded back above $50K and trading at its highest levels since mid-May. Following this morning’s gains, bitcoin still remains more than 20% below its record highs from earlier this year.
Even more impressive than the rally in bitcoin has been the run in Ethereum which has more than doubled off its July lows. At current levels, Ethereum is less than 14% below its prior record, and its ratio relative to bitcoin is even closer to record highs.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 9/1/21
Bespoke Stock Scores — 9/1/21
India (INDA) Ignites
Looking across the various ETFs tracking the stock markets of the 23 countries tracked in our Global Macro Dashboard, by far the best performer in the month of August was India (INDA) which rallied 8.75%. A large portion of those gains occurred in the final days of the month as well. As shown in the matrix below, over the past five days alone INDA has gained 4.74% which brings it almost 3 standard deviations above its 50-DMA. INDA is also currently at a 52-week high alongside the US (SPY) and Russia (RSX).
INDA is not alone in having become deeply overbought after big moves in recent days. Japan (EWJ), Russia (RSX), Malaysia (EWM), and Mexico (EWW) are also trading over 2 standard deviations above their 50-DMAs. The latter two were also the runners-up in terms of strongest performers in August. In the case of the former two, just last week they were actually in neutral territory as is the case with a number of other country ETFs. No country has seen as dramatic of a move within its trading range than South Africa (EZA), though. One week ago, it was oversold. After rallying 5.79% in the past five days, it has not only taken out its 50-DMA but is now 1.6 standard deviations above it. Looking across the aforementioned countries, and as we mentioned yesterday, one common theme in August was the outperformance of emerging market countries. Tose countries gained an average of 2.21% last month versus a 0.85% gain for developed markets.
Looking at G7 countries, the US has stood out as a notably solid performer. As shown below, the US (SPY) has been in a consistent uptrend over the past year whereas other G7 members have been sideways at best since the spring. With that said, there have been improvements more recently for some countries. The most concrete example is Japan. EWJ has been consolidating over the past few months, but it broke out of its 2021 downtrend this week. Gaining 1.74% today alone, EWJ is at the highest level since early June. France (EWQ) is also having a big day with a 2.2% gain, bringing it right up to the highs from mid-August and early June.
Like France, there are a handful of emerging market countries that have also broken out recently or are nearing a breakout. Mexico (EWW) and Russia (RSX) both took out their highs from the spring and earlier this summer in the past couple of sessions. While it has not put in a new 52-week high just yet, Taiwan (EWT) is likewise attempting to take out prior highs. Meanwhile, we also wanted to highlight the chart of INDA. As previously mentioned, INDA posted big gains over the past month, and as such, the chart is looking quite elevated. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – September 2021
Bespoke Market Calendar — September 2021
Please click the image below to view our September 2021 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Start a two-week free trial to one of Bespoke’s three research levels.
Chart of the Day: One Year Anniversary of the Peak in Technology
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/1/21 – Seven Down…
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.” – William Shakespeare
The calendar may have changed, but the market hasn’t seemed to notice as futures are continuing the gains we saw to close out August. The first major economic report of the month was ADP Private Payrolls, and for the second straight month, it missed expectations by a wide margin (over 250K). Still ahead, we’ll have the Markit Manufacturing PMI report at 9:45 and ISM’s Manufacturing report at 10 AM.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
August marked the seventh straight month of gains for the S&P 500. That’s the longest winning streak for the index since the ten-month streak that ended in January 2018. Including the current streak, there have now been 15 winning streaks of seven or more months for the S&P 500 since 1945, and of the prior fourteen, the majority (10) went on to at least an eighth month, and whether or not the streak extended to eight months or not, the S&P 500’s median performance in the month after the seventh straight up month was a gain of 1.6%. The longest winning streaks for the S&P 500 all came in the 1950s when there were three separate winning streaks of 11 months, and the longest since then was the ten-month streak ending in January 2018.
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