Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/22/22 – Back to Normal
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“Make a game plan and stick to it. Unless it’s not working.” – Yogi Berra
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
Today is looking like a back-to-normal 2022 day for US stocks as futures are trading lower. The gains were fun while they lasted. Looking on the bright side, there are only five trading days left in the year. Elsewhere in markets, the 10-year yield is down slightly to 3.65% while oil has been quietly rallying and is now just under $80 per barrel.
The economic calendar is busy today as many reporting agencies try to squeeze in this month’s reports before Christmas. Data released so far hasn’t been particularly market-friendly as revised GDP came in higher than expected (3.2% vs 2.9%) and Core PCE was revised higher (4.7% vs 4.6%). Jobless claims were also strong with initial claims coming in lower than expected (216K vs 222K) and continuing claims also coming in slightly better than expected (1,672K vs 1,675K). If they were to have any impact on Fed policy, none of these reports would suggest less of a hawkish stance.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Even after two days of gains, sector performance over the last five trading days has been pretty poor and almost exactly in line with performance rankings on a YTD basis. As shown in the scatter chart below which compares YTD performance versus the last week, there has been a clear correlation between the two with an r-squared of 0.78. Heading into year-end, investors are following the game plan of selling their losers and buying the few winners.
Looking at a snapshot from our Trend Analyzer, four of the S&P 500’s eleven sectors are down over 4% in the last week, another four are down more than 2%, two are down over 1%, and only Energy is higher. In terms of where sectors are now trading with respect to their trading ranges, there’s still pretty much of an even split between sectors trading above and below their 50-day moving average with six above and five below. Consumer Discretionary is the only sector in oversold territory. While that may seem like an ominous sign heading into the Christmas season, it’s worth remembering that retailers usually underperform at this time of year. Also, Tesla (TSLA) makes up about 13% of the sector, so the stock’s weakness has been a drag on the overall sector.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
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Bespoke Baskets Update — December 2022
Daily Sector Snapshot — 12/21/22
Chart of the Day – Record Declines in Existing Home Sales
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/21/22 – Two in a Row?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The graveyards are full of indispensable men.” – Charles de Gaulle
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
As we get closer to Christmas, the pace of news starts to slow, so that’s why one of this morning’s headlines concerns a Twitter poll. After more people voted that they wanted him to step down as CEO of the social media company, Elon Musk announced that he will step down as CEO of Twitter once he finds “someone foolish enough to take the job!” Elon has also suggested in the past week that no one besides him with the ability to do so would take on the job of leading the company when he noted, “No one wants the job who can actually keep Twitter alive. There is no successor.”
We also had some positive (or not as bad as expected) earnings news after the close on Tuesday with Nike (NKE) trading up over 10% and FedEx (FDX) up close to 5%. Expectations heading into the Q4 earnings season next month have really been negative, but at least these companies are starting off with a good first impression.
On the economic calendar this morning, the only reports scheduled are Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM.
Even with US stocks on pace for their second straight day of gains, it hasn’t been a pretty December for stocks. What was an uptrend from the October lows has been broken in a convincing way, and the only hope for chart watchers now is that the June lows hold creating what could turn out to be a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 12/20/22
Bespoke Stock Scores — 12/20/22
Chart of the Day – Biggest Surge in the Yen in More Than a Decade
Mega-Caps Down $5 Trillion in Market Cap, AMZN Now Down $1+ Trillion
As we approach the end of 2022, below is an updated look at the drawdown in market cap that we’ve seen in the US equity space since major indices peaked on the first trading day of the year. Using the Russell 3,000 as a proxy, the US stock market has seen an $11.7 trillion drawdown from the peak on 1/3/22. The max drawdown was $13.6 trillion at the low on 9/30, so we’ve seen market cap increase by just under $2 trillion since then. In dollar terms, this drawdown has been more extreme than anything investors have ever experienced. That’s pretty deflationary if you ask us!
Of the $11.7 trillion drawdown in US equity market cap, just over $5 trillion of the drop has come from six companies! Below is a look at the six current and former “trillion dollar market cap” club members that have now collectively lost about $5.07 trillion in market cap from their peaks. As shown, Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA) have all lost at least $750 billion in market cap from their highs. And Amazon (AMZN) is the first to lose more than $1 trillion in market cap! Just a few years ago, no company had a market cap of more than a trillion dollars, and now we have a company that has lost more than a trillion dollars in market cap.
For all six of these companies, their current drawdowns are easily their biggest on record. Apple (AAPL) has lost $880 billion, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down $846 billion, Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) are both down more than $760 billion, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down $784 billion even though it was down close to a trillion at its lows in November. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/20/22 – Japanese Jolt
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“To lose is to win” – Japanese Proverb
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
If the above statement is true, 2022 should end up as one of the best years ever. Right? Futures are mixed this morning, but there was still some big news overnight in central bank moves as the Bank of Japan raised the upper bound of its cap on the 10-year JGB yield by 0.25 percentage points to 0.50%. While the move wasn’t entirely a surprise, the timing was. Just yesterday, in our Morning Lineup, we discussed how this type of action would likely be taken in April when Kuroda retires from the BoJ.
While equity futures have seen little impact from the BoJ news, interest rates in the US are higher across the board this morning with the 10-year yield up to 3.66%. In economic news, the only data on the calendar today is Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30. Building Permits missed by a mile while Housing Starts actually posted a slight beat.
The Bank of Japan’s jolt to financial markets overnight had one of the most direct impacts on the value of the yen which surged 3% relative to the dollar. Besides just the last 24 hours, it has been a very strong two months for the yen. After the dollar peaked at 150 yen two months ago today, it has experienced a sharp move lower falling more than 10% versus the yen and looking at the chart in recent weeks, there have been a number of sharp single-day moves lower.
The USD/JPY cross is now significantly below its 200-DMA after closing below that level earlier this month for the first time since early 2021 – nearly two years earlier! Going back to 1972, that streak of 462 trading days was the longest streak of closes above the 200-DMA on record and just the fourth streak that lasted more than a year.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.