Get Invested: “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

Our “Get Invested” series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make.  The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful.”

One of Warren Buffett’s most famous quotes is to “be greedy when others are fearful.”  Unfortunately, many anxious investors can’t stomach losses in the stock market, causing them to go to “all cash” at exactly the wrong times.  Take large declines, for example.  Since WW2, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 15% in nine different quarters.  Following every single instance, the index was higher a year later with an average one-year gain of 25.1%.  Similarly, the S&P 500 has had two-quarter drops of 20%+ just eight times, and over the next year, the index was up by at least 17% with gains every single time.

If you have any questions about our Get Invested resource, please email us or give us a call at 914-315-1248.  You can view the full piece by becoming a Bespoke client.

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Brunch Reads – 3/2/25

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

Oh, the Places You’ll Go: On March 2, 1904, Theodor Seuss Geisel, better known as Dr. Seuss, was born. His impact on generations of readers cannot be overstated. Books like The Cat in the Hat and Green Eggs and Ham introduced millions of children to reading through simple vocabulary, rhythmic patterns, and engaging illustrations. Beyond literacy, Dr. Seuss infused his stories with profound social and moral messages. The Lorax warned about environmental destruction long before it was a widespread concern, while Horton Hears a Who! told a story of compassion and the importance of standing up for others. Dr. Seuss’s influence extends beyond the pages of his books. His legacy continues through initiatives like Read Across America Day, which is celebrated annually on his birthday and promotes early childhood literacy. His stories have been adapted into films, TV specials, and stage productions.

A& & Technology

AI cracks superbug problem in two days that took scientists years (BBC)
An AI tool from Google just cracked a microbiology mystery in 48 hours, a problem that took human scientists a decade to solve. Given only a short prompt, the AI independently reached the same conclusion about how superbugs spread, even though the research hadn’t been published anywhere. It confirmed the hypothesis and even suggested four additional ideas, one of which the research team is now pursuing, leading Professor José R. Penadés to call it a game-changer for science. [Link]

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Get Invested: Ignore the Noise

Our “Get Invested” series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make.  The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled “Ignore the Noise.”

It’s hard to avoid monitoring the day-to-day action of the market when your hard-earned money is at stake, but for money that’s invested for the long-term, it’s best to try and ignore the noise.

The left chart below shows daily closing prices for the S&P 500 since the start of 2023.  The right chart shows the S&P 500’s average daily closing price over the prior 200 trading days over the same time frame.  Ignoring the daily ups and downs of the market and focusing on the longer-term trend is a helpful way to reduce unforced anxiety and potential disruptions to a buy and hold strategy.

If you have any questions about our Get Invested resource, please email us or give us a call at 914-315-1248.  You can view the full piece by becoming a Bespoke client.

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The Bespoke Report – 2/28/25 – Uncertainty Reigns

To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  In this week’s report, we look at the rising tide of uncertainty reported by factories and consumers, the outlook for growth in the rest of the first quarter, the message companies are sending in earnings this season, recent cross-asset price trends, and much more!  Don’t miss it.

When the Weekend Was a Good Thing

Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500’s average daily performance during the second Trump administration has been a decline of 0.8%. The magnitude of the declines hasn’t been spread out evenly across each of those days.  The chart below shows the S&P 500’s daily performance on every trading day since the inauguration, and we have also highlighted Mondays and Fridays in red. The days surrounding the weekend have been notably weak. Of the nine Friday and Monday sessions since 1/21, the S&P 500 has traded lower eight times for a median decline of 0.5%. These are some pretty weak numbers, but in the early days of this administration, we have seen no shortage of Friday afternoon and weekend headlines that the market has been forced to adjust to.

It’s still extremely early in this administration, so the extreme weakness of the market on Fridays and Mondays could easily shift, but we found it interesting how much these numbers differ from average weekday performance under President Biden. During his four years in office, Friday and Monday were easily the best days of the trading week, with average gains of 9.8 bps and 8.5 bps, respectively. Just like in life, for the markets, no news is sometimes good news, and unlike the first few weeks of the second Trump Administration, weekends during the Biden Administration tended ot be quiet from Friday afternoons through early Monday.


Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/28/25 – Not Another Weekend!

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Everybody deserves a fresh start every once in a while.” – Bugsy Siegel

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

It’s been a rough few days for the equity market since last Wednesday’s record closing high, but at least futures are trading modestly higher. Maybe the market is getting a fresh start! After these last six trading days, if positive futures still make you optimistic, what market have you been watching? On five of those six days, the S&P 500’s intraday high came in the first ten minutes of the trading day, and there has been a reliable pattern of afternoon selling the entire time. Just look at the chart below of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY); since last Wednesday’s record high, there have been six straight days where SPY finished the day below where it opened. Is it too much to ask for just one day when Lucy doesn’t pull the football away from Charlie Brown?

We just got a bunch of economic data hitting the tape, and it was mixed. Personal Income increased more than expected, but Personal Spending was weaker than expected. More importantly, though, PCE data, which the market was most focused on, came in right in line with expectations. The immediate reaction in equity futures has been positive, but we’ll see how that plays out as the market digests the numbers.

While you may be thinking TGIF, that hasn’t been the case in the early days of the second Trump Administration. The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance on every trading day since President Trump was inaugurated, with Fridays and Mondays highlighted in red. Of the nine trading sessions that have occurred on Friday or Monday during this time, the S&P 500 has only been up once (2/10, +0.67%), and the median performance has been a decline of 0.50%.

Get Invested: Don’t Sleep on Dividends

Our “Get Invested” series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make.  The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled “Don’t Sleep on Dividends.”

Owning the “market” through a “buy and hold” strategy of an ETF like SPY (that tracks the S&P 500) means you’ll capture the dividend yield of the market as well.  Over time, those dividends really add up.  Since 1993 when the first S&P 500 ETF (SPY) began trading, nearly half of the index’s 2,390% total return has come from capturing and reinvesting quarterly dividend payouts.

If you have any questions about our Get Invested resource, please email us or give us a call at 914-315-1248.  You can view the full piece by becoming a Bespoke client.

Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s wealth management services.

The Closer – Uncertainty, Implementation Implodes, KISS – 2/27/25

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the enormous number of mentions on tariffs on conference calls and what that means for uncertainty (page 1). We then review the latest GDP data (page 2) and earnings reports released after the bell (page 3). Next, we review the sharp drop in AI names (page 4) followed by an update of our KISS basket (page 5).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: eBay (EBAY)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers eBay’s (EBAY) Q4 2024 earnings call.

eBay (EBAY) operates one of the world’s largest online marketplaces, connecting buyers and sellers across categories, from collectibles and fashion to electronics and auto parts. Unlike traditional e-commerce giants, eBay specializes in consumer-to-consumer (C2C) and enthusiast-driven commerce, offering a platform for secondhand and unique inventory. The company’s deep AI investments include proprietary large language models, enhanced search, pricing, and listing optimization, while its global partnerships, including integrations with OpenAI and Meta, expand its reach. EBAY delivered 2% GMV growth to $19.3B, led by Trading Cards (double-digit growth) and Motors Parts & Accessories. AI-powered features propelled seller adoption, with over 10 million using Gen AI tools. Advertising revenue climbed 12% to $445M, countering take rate pressures. Consumer demand held steady in the US but remained weak in the UK/Germany, with macro concerns around tariffs and de minimis rule changes ahead. Despite challenges, eBay sees low single-digit GMV growth for 2025, prioritizing AI, category expansion, and seller monetization. Despite beating estimates, EBAY fell as much as 10% on 2/27 on light guidance…

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