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“Everybody deserves a fresh start every once in a while.” – Bugsy Siegel

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

It’s been a rough few days for the equity market since last Wednesday’s record closing high, but at least futures are trading modestly higher. Maybe the market is getting a fresh start! After these last six trading days, if positive futures still make you optimistic, what market have you been watching? On five of those six days, the S&P 500’s intraday high came in the first ten minutes of the trading day, and there has been a reliable pattern of afternoon selling the entire time. Just look at the chart below of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY); since last Wednesday’s record high, there have been six straight days where SPY finished the day below where it opened. Is it too much to ask for just one day when Lucy doesn’t pull the football away from Charlie Brown?

We just got a bunch of economic data hitting the tape, and it was mixed. Personal Income increased more than expected, but Personal Spending was weaker than expected. More importantly, though, PCE data, which the market was most focused on, came in right in line with expectations. The immediate reaction in equity futures has been positive, but we’ll see how that plays out as the market digests the numbers.

While you may be thinking TGIF, that hasn’t been the case in the early days of the second Trump Administration. The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance on every trading day since President Trump was inaugurated, with Fridays and Mondays highlighted in red. Of the nine trading sessions that have occurred on Friday or Monday during this time, the S&P 500 has only been up once (2/10, +0.67%), and the median performance has been a decline of 0.50%.