Netflix (NFLX) Crosses 50%
Each month, Bespoke runs a survey of 1,500 US consumers balanced to census. In the survey, we cover everything you can think of regarding the economy, personal finances, and consumer spending habits. We’ve now been running the monthly survey for more than two years, so we have historical trend data that is extremely valuable, and it only gets more valuable as time passes. All of this data gets packaged into our monthly Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report, which is included as part of our Pulse subscription package that is available for either $39/month or $365/year. We highly recommend trying out the service, as it includes access to model portfolios and additional consumer reports as well. If you’re not yet a Pulse member, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!
Yesterday we highlighted our Pulse survey data on social media account trends, and today we’re taking a look at account trends for streaming media services. Each month in our survey, we ask participants if they have an account with any of the streaming media platforms shown in the chart below. Netflix (NFLX) is to streaming as Facebook (FB) is to social as Amazon.com (AMZN) is to e-commerce. More than 50% of survey participants have a Netflix account, which is a massive number. Back in late 2014 this reading was less than 40%, so Netflix continues to trend higher but hasn’t yet hit critical mass in our opinion. Looking at the remaining services, we’ve seen Amazon Prime, Hulu and Spotify all trend higher as well over the past two years, while Pandora (P) is essentially flat. The percentage of consumers that didn’t have an account with any of the services in the chart has dipped from the mid-40s to 30.2% as of November.
If you’re not yet a Pulse member and would like to track our streaming media data going forward, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!
The Closer 12/20/16 – Nothing Up With VIX
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we dive deep on the VIX curve.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!
Bespoke Stock Scores: 12/20/16
Nose-Diving Sector Correlations
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A lot has been said about the drop in correlations between stocks and sectors since the election. Below is a chart that really highlights this.
We calculated the correlation between the daily price changes (%) of all eleven sectors during the current bull market and then just since the election on November 8th. For example, we take the daily percentage change for the S&P 500 Technology sector and calculate the correlation between that daily percentage change and the daily percentage change of the Consumer Discretionary sector, the Consumer Staples sector, and so on and so forth. We then calculated the average of the correlations between Tech and the other ten sectors to come up with a reading of 0.73 throughout the current bull market. Remember, a reading of 1 is perfectly correlated, a reading of 0 means price movements are completely independent of each other, and a reading of -1 means they’re completely mirroring each other. For Tech, the average correlation of 0.73 with the other ten sectors during the current bull market means they’ve mostly moved inline with each other.
Since the election, however, Tech’s average correlation with other sectors has been just 0.25. And you’ll notice a similar pattern across the board. Sector price change correlations since the election have been extremely low. This definitely hasn’t been a “rising tide lifts all boats” type of market rally.
ETF Trends: International – 12/20/16
Telecoms, the US dollar, and microcaps are the unlikely leaders in our list of best performing ETFs over the past week. FX-hedged versions of European and Japanese equity exposure also continue to perform well, while gold miners remain brutal decliners over the past week. Silver, China, natural gas, and hard metals have also performed poorly.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
US Facebook (FB) Penetration Looks to Have Peaked
Each month, Bespoke runs a survey of 1,500 US consumers balanced to census. In the survey, we cover everything you can think of regarding the economy, personal finances, and consumer spending habits. We’ve now been running the monthly survey for more than two years, so we have historical trend data that is extremely valuable, and it only gets more valuable as time passes. All of this data gets packaged into our monthly Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report, which is included as part of our Pulse subscription package that is available for either $39/month or $365/year. We highly recommend trying out the service, as it includes access to model portfolios and additional consumer reports as well. If you’re not yet a Pulse member, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!
Each month in our survey, we ask participants if they have an account with any of the many social media platforms. Tracking this over time gives us an excellent look at how well they’re doing both collectively and individually. Below is a chart showing historical account data for sites like Facebook (FB), Instagram, Twitter (TWTR), and LinkedIn (LNKD). As shown, Facebook (FB) is very clearly the leader in the space with the remaining sites in a constant battle for second place. Since the beginning of our survey, Facebook (FB) has remained stable around 70%, but it looks like it could be trending lower based on data over the last year. On the other hand, Instagram and Snapchat have seen the biggest increases in users over the last 2+ years. Twitter (TWTR) and LinkedIn (LNKD) have both seen small declines.
In our full Pulse report released each month, we break down these numbers based on various demographics like age and income. If you’re not yet a Pulse member and you want to see the additional data, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!
B.I.G. Tips – Four Straight Years: Caterpillar Machinery Sales Down Again
Bespokecast — Episode 4 — Joe Weisenthal
In our newest conversation on Bespokecast, we speak with Bloomberg Markets Managing Editor Joe Weisenthal. Joe is a living clearinghouse for information and news on financial markets, with a huge presence on Twitter, the Odd Lots podcast co-hosted with Tracy Alloway, and a daily show on Bloomberg TV (What Did You Miss?). He’s been on the forefront of financial media since the mid-2000s, starting TheStalwart.com before joining Business Insider early in that company’s ascent in the digital media space. Joe has a fascinating perspective on markets and the media that cover them. In our hour-long conversation, we cover a range of topics, including his career path, how he thinks about the modern media landscape, the disconnect between accepted wisdom and actual events this year, and how becoming a father has impacted his career. We had a lot of fun recording this conversation and we hope you enjoy it!
To access this week’s podcast immediately, start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke’s research product. If you’ve already used your Bespoke free trial, you can gain access by choosing a membership option at our products page. Here’s a look at past guests as well if you’re interested.
Dynamic Upgrades/Downgrades: 12/20/16
Bespoke CNBC Appearance (12/20)
Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box earlier today to discuss markets and the impact of the election on the markets. To view the segment, please click on the image below.
