Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/9/26
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“Success is like Halley’s Comet, you know. Every now and then it just comes around.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P 500 still sits 2.8% below all-time highs, both the Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductor index — two groups seen as “leading” indicators — hit new all-time highs yesterday. The charts below show the breakouts to new highs for these two closely-followed areas of the market.
While the Semis and Transports surged and held onto gains yesterday, the same can’t be said for Software. Below is an incredible two-day intraday chart of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) versus the iShares Software ETF (IGV). While IGV and QQQ tracked each other closely through yesterday’s sharp upside open, software (IGV) collapsed from there and ended up closing down 1% on the day, while QQQ held steady and went out with a gain of nearly 3%.
The Closer – Ceasefire Confusion, Valuations, Fed – 4/8/26
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- US equity market valuations have turned significantly lower since peaking in late October of last year.
- Today’s release of the Fed Minutes took a more hawkish tone than recent meetings.
- Despite declines and the war, retail investor sentiment remained remarkably bullish in March.
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Chart of the Day – Back Above the 50- and 200-DMA
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is one of the largest global airlines, differentiating itself through a premium-heavy product mix and a powerful loyalty ecosystem anchored by its American Express partnership. Delta serves both high-end leisure travelers and corporate clients, offering insight into global travel demand, consumer discretionary spending, and business activity trends. Delta delivered record Q1 revenue of $14.2B (+9.4% YoY) with EPS of $0.64, as demand remained resilient across corporate and premium segments. Cash sales rose double-digits, and corporate revenue hit a record, signaling strong travel demand despite macro uncertainty. The biggest storyline was fuel, with prices roughly doubling and adding over $2B in incremental costs for Q2. Delta is aggressively cutting low-return capacity and expects to recapture 40–50% of fuel headwinds near-term, with stronger pricing power building into summer. Management emphasized that high fuel prices could drive industry consolidation, positioning Delta to gain share. International demand (especially transatlantic and Asia) remains strong, while loyalty and premium offerings continue to drive margin expansion. DAL shares opened up 11% on 4/8 on better-than-expected earnings and trimmed guidance…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/8/26
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I looked for the same pitch my whole career, a breaking ball. I never worried about the fastball. They couldn’t throw it past me.” – Hank Aaron
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are sharply higher this morning, set to open up nearly 3%, after a two-week ceasefire was reached between the US and Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz and work towards a longer-term resolution. Of course, the anti-Trump commentary suggests that it’s a disastrous outcome for the US, while the pro-Trump commentary is saying this is all part of the President’s expert negotiating skills.
Our goal is to avoid the politics and focus on market action. Based on where futures are trading, the S&P 500 is set to move back above both its 50-DMA and 200-DMA at the open, leaving the index roughly 2.7% below its all-time closing high.
While stocks are up, front-month oil prices have crashed $20 down to the low $90s. After trading in overbought territory for 60 straight trading days, the S&P 500 Energy sector is down nearly 5% in pre-market trading. As shown below, the Energy sector ETF (XLE) will decidedly break its short-term uptrend when it opens this morning, but it’s still holding above its 50-DMA for now.
The Closer – Record Backwardation, Supply Chain Stress – 4/7/26
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- The move in Brent spot has now reached a completely unprecedented level of backwardation: more than $30 per barrel separates spot from the current front-month Brent future priced on delivery in June.
- Supply chain indicators like the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and the Logistics Mangers’ Index highlighted rapidly rising prices and stress in March.
- Consumers anticipate gas prices to rise over 9% in the next 12 months according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
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Chart of the Day – Oversold and Overbought Extremes
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/7/26 – Taco Tuesday?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The secret of life is to say yes all the time, because when you’re old, you don’t want to say, ‘I wish I’d done this, I wish I had done that.” – Francis Ford Coppola
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s been an up-and-down night and morning for equities. moving from negative to positive and back to negative levels. Barring any movement on the diplomatic front, it’s going to be hard for investors to take on much risk ahead of the President’s 8 PM deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait or face the wrath of the US military. At no time would a Taco Tuesday be more welcome than today, but the President has shown no signs of backing down. His latest Truth Social post comments from just a few minutes ago threaten that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” That is, unless “something revolutionary wonderful can happen”.
Besides the weakness in equity futures, Treasury yields are little changed, crude oil is up over 3%, gold is remarkably unchanged, and Bitcoin is down 2%.
Japanese stocks reopened from the long holiday weekend and finished the day effectively unchanged, while Hong Kong remained closed. Chinese stocks had marginal gains while South Korea and Australia were up close to 1% or more. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, concerns have grown over the availability of not just energy, but also helium supplies for South Korea’s chip industry. Officials announced last night, though, that the country’s chip assemblers have secured supplies of at least four months.
In Europe, we’re seeing a modestly positive start to the week after the four-day weekend. Service sector PMIs for the continent declined slightly less than expected, while it was a mixed bag at the individual country level. France and Italy are leading in early trading with gains of about 0.5%, while Germany is unchanged.
US stocks have made a nice comeback over the last year, moving from an environment where most sectors were either oversold or extremely oversold to one where most sectors are back to neutral. Starting with where things stood last week at this time, most sectors had declined over the prior week with several, like Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, experiencing declines of more than 4%. Those declines also put all three sectors into extreme oversold territory along with Industrials and Health Care. The only sectors above their 50-DMAs were Energy (which was overbought) and Utilities.
With the S&P 500 up four days in a row since the snapshot above was taken, we’ve seen a mass exodus out of oversold territory. The only sector down over the last week is Energy, while every other sector is up at least 1%, including four with gains of more than 4%. While three sectors – Communication Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary – remain in oversold territory, they’re all close to moving out. That said, Energy and Utilities are still the only two sectors above their 50-DMAs, so there’s still plenty of room for improvement.
Like most sectors, the S&P 500 also managed to move out of oversold territory yesterday (light blue shaded region), an area it has been in since early March.
In fact, yesterday’s rally ended a streak of 21 trading days where SPY closed in oversold territory. That was the longest streak since the one that ended the bear market in October 2022, and it was only one of eleven streaks in SPY’s history since 1993 that lasted four weeks or more. The longest of these streaks was 36 trading days ending in April 2001, and eight lasted longer than 21 days.
The Closer – Cyclicals Technically Better, Backwardation – 4/6/26
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- Some cyclical parts of the market have seen technicals improve following the past few days’ rally.
- Front-month WTI reached a new cycle high today; resulting in a record spread between front and second month prices.
- The share of mortgage loans seriously delinquent and in foreclosure reached multi-year highs in February.
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