Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/27/23
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If it doesn’t matter who wins or loses, then why do they keep score?” — Vince Lombardi
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
It’s conference championship weekend for the NFL as the Bengals travel to Kansas City in the AFC and the 49ers travel to Philadelphia in the NFC. The AFC championship game is an exact repeat of last year’s match-up when the Bengals upset the Chiefs on the road. We’ve only seen the same two teams play in the same location in the AFC Championship game in back-to-back years two prior times, once in 2011/2012 (Ravens at Patriots) and once in 1978/1979 (Oilers at Steelers).
If you’re looking for more individual stock ideas, yesterday we updated our Bespoke 50 list of noteworthy Russell 3,000 growth stocks. We like this list as an idea generator for further research into the 50 names that make the cut each week.
At the index level, take a look below at our Trend Analyzer snapshot of major US index ETFs. It’s green across the board when it comes to 50-DMA spread, 5-day change, and YTD change. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is in the lead on a YTD basis with a gain of 10.1%, and it’s also up the most over the last five days and the farthest above its 50-DMA. This is the opposite of what we saw in 2022 when QQQ lagged the rest of the market severely. As you can see, every single index ETF on the list is now “overbought” with the exception of the Dow 30 (DIA).
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 1/26/23
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday unless otherwise noted. There were nine changes to the list this week.
The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription. You can learn more about our subscription offerings at our Membership Options page, or simply start a two-week trial at our sign-up page.
The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning each week. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Chart of the Day: Prices At The Pump On the Up and Up
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/26/23
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Market makers know that the market is always right. You are wrong if you are losing money for any reason at all. Market makers have that drilled into their head. They know value is irrelevant in times of market stress.” — Michael Platt, founder of Bluecrest Capital
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
Tesla (TSLA) reported earnings after the close yesterday and beat expectations on both the top and bottom line. The stock is set to open higher by just over 7% when the bell rings this morning, which would be its 15th gap higher on earnings out of the 50 quarterly results the company has posted since going public. Below is a snapshot of the 14 prior gaps higher of 5%+ in reaction to earnings for Tesla as shown in our Earnings Explorer tool. Historically, the stock has averaged a slight decline of 1.4% from the open to the close of trading on these 14 prior earnings reaction days, with positive returns from the open to close 5 out of 14 times. Twice out of 14 times, TSLA has gapped up 5%+ on earnings only to finish the day lower because of sharp intraday reversals. These two reversals came on back-to-back earnings releases in April and July of 2020. Only once has TSLA tacked on another 5%+ from the open to the close after gapping up 5%+, and that came back in August 2018 when shares opened up 9.2% and went up another 6.4% intraday for a full-day gain of 16.2%.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we also take a look at a few bullish chart patterns we’ve identified across key US sectors and groups.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
Chart of the Day: Shorts Running Higher
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/25/23
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I’ve actually made a prediction that within 30 years a majority of new cars made in the United States will be electric. And I don’t mean hybrid, I mean fully electric.” – Elon Musk, 6/25/08
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
When Elon Musk made the prediction in 2008 that the majority of new cars made in the US would be electric within 30 years, the flagship Tesla Model S — the first modern all-electric vehicle — was still four years from debuting in 2012. Hybrids like the Toyota Prius were certainly an option in 2008, but fully electric cars were simply not something that consumers (or the government) were thinking about.
We’re now closing in on the halfway point of Musk’s 30-year prediction, and we’d say that he’s on his way. In 2022, EV sales in the US represented 5.8% of total sales, up two-thirds from the prior year’s 3.2% market share. This increase came even as total vehicle sales declined 8% in 2022. The “tipping point” for wider EV adoption is said to be around 5%, and with that mark now eclipsed, Bloomberg estimates that half of all US auto sales will be EVs by 2030 — a full eight years sooner than Musk predicted back in 2008. Tesla (TSLA) reports quarterly earnings after the close today.
After initially trading higher by more than 4% in response to earnings after the close yesterday, shares of Microsoft $MSFT are currently set to open down 2.5% after investors digested less-than-stellar revenue guidance from the company. Microsoft’s weakness has the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) trading down more than 1% pre-market, so we’re currently set for a pretty big gap down at the open.
In today’s full Morning Lineup, we take a closer look at technicals for the “big Tech” mega-caps, and we analyze sector breadth measures that are acting contrary to the general economic consensus at the moment.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
Chart of the Day: As Goes January
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/24/23
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I reached my hand down and picked it up; it made my heart thump, for I was certain it was gold.” — James Marshall
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
Today’s quote of the day comes from James Marshall, a carpenter and sawmill operator who found gold in water at Sutter’s Mill near Coloma, California on this day in 1848. Marshall’s find sparked the California Gold Rush, one of the most memorable and famous events in US history. The “forty-niners” that rushed to California with hopes of striking it rich increased San Francisco’s population from 1,000 in 1848 to 25,000 by December 1849. This Sunday the San Francisco 49ers will play in their 18th NFC Championship game when they travel to Philadelphia to play the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
The gold rush left economists and investors with two important lessons. The first is that you generally need to spot trends early to make big money (most of the gold was found by the earliest to arrive), and the second relates to the famous Mark Twain quote that “during the gold rush, it’s a good time to be in the pick and shovel business.” While most of the arriving miners looking to get rich quick didn’t end up turning a profit, the merchants supplying the miners with everything from tools to food made the big bucks. When it comes to investing in new trends, find the merchants, not the miners.
Earnings so far this morning have been positive with ten companies beating EPS estimates and just one EPS miss (3M). Even still, US equity futures are down slightly ahead of the open as investors digest back to back gains of 1%+ for the S&P 500.
Although we noted it in last night’s Closer, it’s worth pointing out again that both the S&P and the Nasdaq 100 managed to trade above the top of their one-year downtrend channels yesterday. It’s a small break at this point that could easily turn out to be a pump fake, but it’s at least a start. Technicians will now be looking for the two indices to break above their late November/early December highs — which would represent a higher high after we just saw a higher low for the indices earlier this month. A higher-high would trigger a new short-term uptrend formation, which is something we haven’t seen since last summer.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
Chart of the Day – Leading Indicators Head Further South
Earnings Onslaught On The Way
As we noted in today’s Morning Lineup, we may technically be in the midst of earnings season, but we have yet to see too heavy of a slate of reports. We are kicking off this week with another quiet day with only 11 reports scattered before and after the bell. Earnings will ramp up dramatically starting tomorrow, though, with the calendar remaining busy through the next month. As shown in the snapshot from our Earnings Explorer tool below, after today there will be another nearly 200 reports scheduled for this week alone.
While the number of stocks reporting will remain high through February, this week and next will see the bulk of companies in terms of market cap. In the chart below from last Friday’s Bespoke Report, we show each day’s daily market cap of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings through the end of February. Through next Friday alone, a combined $19.8 trillion in market cap will report, or 57% of the S&P 500’s total market cap. That includes the mega-cap names with Microsoft (MSFT) leading things off tomorrow followed by Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday. Next Thursday, the combined $4.3 trillion in market cap from Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) will all be out on the same day. After that, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) will be the last remaining mega-cap stock to report earnings, and that will not be until February 27th.
To keep track of all upcoming earnings reports, be sure to check out our Earnings Explorer.Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
