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“I’ve actually made a prediction that within 30 years a majority of new cars made in the United States will be electric. And I don’t mean hybrid, I mean fully electric.” – Elon Musk, 6/25/08

Morning stock market summary

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When Elon Musk made the prediction in 2008 that the majority of new cars made in the US would be electric within 30 years, the flagship Tesla Model S — the first modern all-electric vehicle — was still four years from debuting in 2012.  Hybrids like the Toyota Prius were certainly an option in 2008, but fully electric cars were simply not something that consumers (or the government) were thinking about.

We’re now closing in on the halfway point of Musk’s 30-year prediction, and we’d say that he’s on his way.  In 2022, EV sales in the US represented 5.8% of total sales, up two-thirds from the prior year’s 3.2% market share.  This increase came even as total vehicle sales declined 8% in 2022.  The “tipping point” for wider EV adoption is said to be around 5%, and with that mark now eclipsed, Bloomberg estimates that half of all US auto sales will be EVs by 2030 — a full eight years sooner than Musk predicted back in 2008.  Tesla (TSLA) reports quarterly earnings after the close today.

After initially trading higher by more than 4% in response to earnings after the close yesterday, shares of Microsoft $MSFT are currently set to open down 2.5% after investors digested less-than-stellar revenue guidance from the company.  Microsoft’s weakness has the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) trading down more than 1% pre-market, so we’re currently set for a pretty big gap down at the open.

In today’s full Morning Lineup, we take a closer look at technicals for the “big Tech” mega-caps, and we analyze sector breadth measures that are acting contrary to the general economic consensus at the moment.

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