The Bespoke Report – 4/24/26 – Soak it In
It’s been an incredible move off the lows from less than a month ago as certain areas of the market have seen historic rallies ahead of a busy week of earnings and economic data next week. How much more gas does the market have in its tank as some areas of the world worry about running out of oil? We cover it all in this week’s Bespoke Report.
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Semi Stocks Boost the S&P 500
Since the March 30th low, one of the best performing areas of the stock market has been the semiconductors. At the moment, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (or the SOX) has risen for 18 sessions in a row since the March 30th low. Using the tradable VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as a proxy, the group is now up right around 40% since then, which is a record 18-day rally since its inception.
Of course, the semiconductors are now home to some of the largest stocks in existence.
Broadcom (AVGO) now trades with a greater that $2 trillion market cap and, of course, there is NVIDIA (NVDA), with a market cap above $5 trillion.
Given the S&P 500 is market-cap weighed, the semis are the single largest weight of any industry group. In fact, the group accounts for 15.5% of S&P 500 weight.
So with a combination of massive outperformance and a massively large weight, the semiconductors are to thank for 4.9 percentage points of the index’s 12.8% rally since March 30th, meaning they’ve accounted for roughly 40% of the gain.
As shown below, that is more than twice as large of a positive contribution as the next best, Media & Entertainment, with 2.12 percentage points.
The other two Tech sector industries – Tech Hardware & Equipment and Software & Services – have also made positive contributions. The latter might come as a surprise as it has been a beleaguered group for most of the year. Nonetheless, since the lows, it is to thank for more than a full percentage point of the S&P’s 12.8% rally.
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Bulls Charge Back
The S&P 500 has finally returned to record highs in the past couple of weeks, and sentiment has reflected that positive price action.
This week’s release of the American Association of Individual Investors survey came in with 46% of respondents reporting bullish sentiment. That is the highest level of bullishness since January 15, 2026.
That surge in bullish sentiment corresponded with an 8.4 percentage point decline in bears. At 34.4%, bearish sentiment per this survey is now at the lowest level since the final week of January.
For bullish sentiment, this week’s jump was big. As shown below, the 14.3 percentage point increase week-over-week was the largest one-week uptick since January 23, 2025. Additionally, for the full history of the survey dating back to 1987, this weekly change ranks in the 97th percentile of readings.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/24/26 – SOX 10,000
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“Let chaos reign, then rein in chaos.” – Andy Grove
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The rally continues to roll this morning as the S&P 500 looks to gap up 0.50% at the open, while the Nasdaq is up nearly triple that amount on the back of strong earnings, specifically from Intel (INTC). There’s also been some positive news out of the Middle East on reports that both the US and Iran will return to the bargaining table. Along with higher stock prices comes lower oil prices as WTI crude trades down 1.5% to $94.45 after trading as high as $97 earlier. Gold prices are unchanged, and Bitcoin is up nearly 1%.
Overnight, Asia was mixed. The Nikkei finished the last session of the week with a gain of 1%, doubling its week-to-date gain, while South Korea was little changed, keeping its weekly gain at just over 4.5%. China was slightly lower on the session and finished the week up less than 1%.
In Europe, stocks are generally lower, sitting out the tech-fueled rally that US stocks are likely to see at the open. The STOXX 600 is down less than half a percent, but will finish the week down over 2% even as the S&P 500 looks to finish the week higher.
Getting back to the US, it’s a quiet day for economic data with Michigan Sentiment the only report on the calendar. Earlier this month, the flash reading came in at a record low. That’s noteworthy because if those preliminary levels hold, it would be the first time that this index ever hit a record low in the same month that the S&P 500 hit an all-time high. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere.
It’s time to dust off the 10,000 hats again, not for the Dow but the SOX. For the first time, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed above 10,000 yesterday, and this morning, the Transports of the 21st Century are on pace to trade another 2.8% higher. We’ve been discussing it a lot recently, so excuse us for beating a dead horse, but the SOX is now on pace to trade higher for a record 18 straight trading days. The only other streak that was anywhere nearly as long was in June 2014, when the index traded higher for 15 straight days.
Just as incredible as the 18-day winning streak is the magnitude of the gain during this streak. If the current gains hold through the end of the day, the SOX will have rallied 45% in the last 18 trading days. We’ll say that again, 45%! Even for a volatile index like the SOX, there has only been one other 18-day period in the index’s history when it gained more, and that was coming out of the dot-com crash lows in Q4 2002, when the index was 97% lower than it is now!
We mentioned the term “dead horse” above, and surprisingly, it’s been stocks that were considered left for dead driving most of the gains. For starters, during yesterday’s session, Texas Instruments (TXN) rallied 19.4% on the back of its Q1 earnings report. Since 1990, there has only been one other day when the stock rallied more, and that was in October 2000.
As mentioned above, today’s driver of the semis rally is Intel (INTC). After an earnings triple play yesterday, the stock is trading up over 26% in the pre-market, which would rank as the stock’s best day since at least 1990. While the old guard of semis has been rallying, the AI bellwether of the group, Nvidia (NVDA), continues to lag, at least relatively speaking. Since the 3/30 low for the SOX, NVDA is up “only” 20%, or less than half as much as the index, in which it is easily the largest component by market cap.
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The Closer – Getting Ludicrous, AI Boost, Claims – 4/23/26
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- 175 stocks have more than doubled year-over-year and now trade with a price-to-sales ratio of more than 10x.
- Stocks proxying OpenAI have exploded higher by 40% since March 30th.
- The share of total jobless claims for claimants above the age of 65 rose to a record high in March.
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: United Airlines (UAL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers United Airlines’ (UAL) Q1 2026 earnings call.
United Airlines (UAL) is one of the largest global airlines, operating an extensive domestic and international network for passenger and cargo services. The company has been repositioning itself as a premium, brand-driven carrier, investing heavily in customer experience, loyalty, and technology to drive higher-margin revenue rather than competing purely on price. Its business offers a read on global travel demand, corporate spending trends, fuel cost pressures, and broader economic activity. United posted revenue up 10.6% to $14.6B and EPS of $1.19 despite a $340M fuel headwind, as jet fuel prices doubled amid geopolitical tensions tied to Iran. Management is aggressively raising fares, with yields up about 20% YoY, and cutting lower-margin capacity to offset costs, targeting full fuel pass-through by year-end. Demand remains resilient, especially in premium (+13.6% revenue) and business travel (+14%), with no clear signs of elasticity yet. The company is leaning into a multi-year premium strategy, rolling out new aircraft configurations, fare bundles, and digital merchandising tools to drive upsell, while loyalty revenue rose 13%. United also strengthened its balance sheet, paying down $3.1B in debt and signaling confidence in achieving double-digit margins longer term. Despite EPS and revenue coming in above estimates, the stock fell 5.6% on 4/22…
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Chart of the Day: Tech Surge
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/23/26 – A Softer Streak
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“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late” – William Shakespeare, The Merry Wives of Windsor
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street yesterday to discuss energy, midterms, and the markets. To view the segment, click on the image below
Equity futures traded sharply lower overnight on concerns of renewed military action in the Middle East. Since then, the negative sentiment has receded on reports out of China that the US and Iran will return to the bargaining table, and futures are well off their lows. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are now flat, while the Dow, being dragged lower by a decline in IBM, is indicated to open down 0.35%.
Treasury yields are marginally higher this morning, with the 10-year yield ticking above 4.30%, while crude oil is now lower after trading much higher overnight. Gold prices are fractionally lower, and Bitcoin is still down 1.5% at just under $78K.
Asian stocks were mostly lower overnight, with South Korea the standout gainer among a sea of red. Higher oil prices were the primary driver of the weakness. In terms of economic data, though, flash PMI readings for April in Japan, India, and Australia came in higher than expected. European stocks are also trading tentatively this morning as the STOXX 600 trades down 0.3%, with France the only gainer. Like Asia, the flash PMI reading for the Eurozone Manufacturing also unexpectedly showed an acceleration.
Besides the pickup in earnings flow, the economic calendar is busy this morning with jobless claims at 8:30, flash PMI readings at 9:45, and then the KC Manufacturing report at 11 AM. On the sentiment front, if should come as no surprise that AAII’s weekly survey saw a big uptick in bullish sentiment, rising from 31.7% up to 46.0%, which isn’t far from the 52-week high of 49.5% in January.
Semis and software have generally moved in opposite directions this year, but over the last several days, both have moved higher. Semis extended their streak of daily gains to a record 15 trading days yesterday, and the streak in software stocks has been half as long. As shown in the chart below, the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV) has traded higher for eight straight days, making it tied for the longest daily winning streak since late 2019. With the ETF trading down close to 3% this morning, though, we wouldn’t bet on the streak extending to a ninth day.
The chart below shows a long-term look at IGV’s performance, with red dots showing every prior eight-day streak. Only once, in the summer of 2011, did one of these streaks coincide with a notable peak in the sector, as the majority occurred within various stages of longer-term uptrends. This current streak has been somewhat unique in that IGV is trading so close to a low.
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The Closer – Earnings, Revisions, Data Center ABS – 4/22/26
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- Tesla (TSLA) reported earnings after the bell with weaker profitability in part because of a litany of massive projects such as Optimus robots, Robotaxi rollout, and more.
- Since the end of 2024, earnings estimates have risen 25.3% and have accelerated more recently with the 6 month change in the 95th percentile of all periods.
- After a strong Q1 last year, data center ABS issuance has moderated over the past year.
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Masco (MAS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Masco’s (MAS) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Masco (MAS) is a global leader in home improvement and building products, best known for brands like Delta Faucet, Behr paint, and Hansgrohe. The company primarily serves repair and remodel markets across plumbing, coatings, and wellness products, giving it a strong read on housing activity, consumer spending, and contractor demand. Masco delivered a strong Q1 with sales up 6% and EPS up 20%, driven by pricing and better-than-expected plumbing volumes, especially in North America, where share gains and resilient demand stood out. The company is navigating a volatile macro backdrop, with tariff changes potentially helping but largely offset by rising commodity costs like copper, oil, and resins. PRO paint demand remained solid while DIY continues to lag due to weak existing home sales. Management highlighted restructuring and cost actions as key margin drivers, with benefits already showing. Despite geopolitical uncertainty, including oil-related inflation pressures, Masco remains optimistic about long-term demand for repair and remodel, supported by aging housing stock and high home equity. On better-than-expected results, shares rose 10% on 4/22…
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