Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/22/25 – Peekaboo
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” – Francis Bacon
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The positive reaction to earnings reports continues this morning with the most high-profile example being Netflix (NFLX). As noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, historically, the stock tends to respond most positively to its Q4 earnings report, and that was the case once again this earnings season as the stock is indicated to open close to 15% higher taking the market cap well above $400 billion. NFLX isn’t the only example, though, as UAL, P&G, and Travelers are just a few more examples of large companies trading higher in the pre-market in reaction to earnings. The only notable losers are in the Health Care sector where Abbot (ABT) and J&J (JNJ) are down about 2%.
What was looking like a breakdown in the chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) last Monday has quickly reversed. After closing back above its 50-day moving average on Friday, equities picked right back up on Tuesday with additional gains, breaking the string of lower highs and the short-term downtrend that has been in place since early December. We’re still just about 1% off those former highs, but the last five trading days have been a good start, and if the market can continue to react positively to the incoming earnings reports, those highs should be within reach.
Like SPY, some other major indices are playing peekaboo with their downtrends that have been in place since early December. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is an example as it broke its downtrend from the December highs yesterday. Additionally, it didn’t make a higher high yesterday, but based on pre-market trading, it should break that string of lower highs today.
The Closer – Treasury Holdings, Consumers, Positioning – 1/21/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the Fed’s Treasury ownership and who else owns Treasuries (page 1 and 2). We then review the latest earnings (page 3) before pivoting over to some consumer spending data out of the NY Fed (page 4). We finish with a preview of this week’s Treasury auctions (page 5) and the latest positioning data (pages 6-9).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: DR Horton (DHI)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers DR Horton’s (DHI) Q1 2025 earnings call.
DR Horton (DHI) is the largest homebuilder in the US, specializing in single-family homes, townhomes, and multi-family properties with operations in 36 states. The company focuses on providing affordable housing options to first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and renters. This quarter, DHI reported results reflecting a slight YoY decline in revenue and earnings, driven by lower margins amid higher incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs. Closings fell 1% to 19,059 homes, with an average selling price of $374,900. Improved construction cycle times was a highlight, while unsold inventory dropped 15% YoY. Rental operations brought in $218M in revenue but faced margin pressures from higher rates. The company emphasized affordability, using smaller floor plans and attached homes to address limited housing supply at lower price points. On better-than-expected results, DHI shares opened almost 3% higher, but those gained were erased intraday to close around 2% lower…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DHI by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Chart of the Day: Netflix (NFLX) Next Up
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: 3M (MMM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers 3M’s (MMM) Q4 2024 earnings call.
3M (MMM) is a manufacturer known for its more than 60,000 products used widely in healthcare, electronics, automotive, and consumer goods cases. From iconic brands like Scotch and Post-it to cutting-edge technologies like optical films and industrial adhesives, 3M impacts everyday life and critical infrastructure worldwide. Product innovation was a standout on the company’s conference call, with 169 new launches, including LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) 2.0 and Expanded Beam Optics connectors for data centers. Supply chain improvements raised OTIF (On-Time In Full) to 88%, though Safety & Industrial remains a focus area. Macroeconomic challenges persisted, with soft US consumer spending and regional variability, but growth in China (+high-single digits) and aerospace (+double digits) offset these headwinds. MMM results topped estimates and shares were up more than 5% on 1/21 in reaction…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for MMM by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
The US: Nicest House on the Block
President Trump’s second term has officially begun. Since winning the election a little over two and a half months ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) has risen 5.42% through today. That’s better than any of the other key country ETFs shown in the snapshot below. For the most part, these country ETFs have largely fallen since the US election with the two largest declines coming out of South Africa (EZA) and Brazil (EWZ). More broadly, emerging markets like these have significantly underperformed with an average decline of 8% versus only 1% for developed market countries. While most country ETFs have fallen since early November, in addition to the US, there are only four that are up on the year: Germany (EWG), Singapore (EWS), Canada (EWC), and France (EWQ). Canada’s gains may come as somewhat of a surprise as the newly inaugurated administration has put the country at the center of tariff talks alongside the neighbor to the south, Mexico (EWW). We provided commentary on these topics in today’s Morning Lineup. While EWC has risen, Mexico has been much weaker with a 6.5% decline since the election. Furthermore, Mexico (EWW) is currently the country ETF that’s the farthest below its 52-week highs and closest to 52-week lows (3.71% away) of the ones shown.
In the chart below, we show the relative strength lines of the country ETFs for Mexico (EWW) and Canada (EWC) versus the United States (SPY). As shown, the two ETFs have seen relative performance drop since the election as tariff tensions have become more of a reality, but that weakness is in the context of longer-term underperformance that has been persistent throughout the past year.
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Charles Schwab’s (SCHW) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) is a leader in wealth management, trading, banking, and financial advisory. With over 44 million client accounts, SCHW is home to retail investors, independent financial advisors, and institutions. The company’s Q4 earnings showed $5.3 billion in revenue, up 20% YoY, driven by a 19% rise in net interest revenue and notable client engagement. The integration of 17 million Ameritrade accounts brought in nearly $2 trillion in assets, with minimal attrition. Net new assets (NNA) surged 51% for the quarter, while thinkorswim (trading platform acquired through Ameritrade) adoption grew 60% YoY. SCHW plans to launch broader retail access to alternative investments and is preparing for spot crypto trading pending regulatory approval. Efficiency and technology were also other hot topics discussed on the call thanks in part to investments in AI-driven tools. CEO Rick Wurster projects 2025 to be a “liftoff year” for SCHW which appears to be off to a solid start after the stock gapped up in reaction to its report on Tuesday morning, 1/21…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for SCHW by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/21/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“In America, the impossible is what we do best.” – Donald J. Trump
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The presidential stock market performance scorecard starts all over again today, as Trump 2.0 begins. For Biden’s entire presidency, the Dow Jones Industrial average rallied 39.4%, about 18 percentage points less than the four years under Trump 1.0 and more than 100 percentage points less than the 149.4% during the eight years of the Obama administration. While the Dow’s performance under Biden was the weakest of the last three Presidents, it was still nothing to sneeze at, and it caps off a third straight period of strong gains under a Presidential term. The only other periods since 1900 where the DJIA rallied more than 30% under three straight presidents were FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower from 1933 to early 1961 and then Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton from 1981 through early 2001. The most recent period, though, was the only one that included two one-term Presidents.
Let these performance numbers serve as a reminder that as an investor you should never let your politics and investment decisions overlap. In late 2008/early 2009, many investors wanted out of the stock market because of Obama’s views towards business and the economy. Yet during his tenure, the Dow rallied nearly 150%. In late 2016/early 2017 another group of investors wanted out of the market because of all the chaos that came with Trump. Lot of good that did you if you moved to the sidelines. When Biden won the election in 2020, the cycle repeated itself, and now in 2025, it’s probably happening with some investors again.
The Dow’s performance under Biden may have been the weakest of the last three Presidents, but it was still enough to rank as one of the top ten performances of any president since 1900. Coolidge, Clinton, and FDR ranked as the top three all with gains of over 150% while the Presidents who encountered the worst stock market returns were Hoover, Bush II, and Nixon.
Brunch Reads – 1/19/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Lighting Roselle: On January 19th, 1883, Thomas Edison introduced the first electric lighting system using overhead wires in the small town of Roselle, New Jersey. Edison had already etched his name in history books for his invention of the incandescent bulb. Still, he sought to demonstrate that his direct current electricity system could reliably provide light to an entire community. So, with the help of his team, Edison installed a network of overhead wires connected to a centralized power station, connecting electricity to homes, businesses, and even the local church in Roselle. The town’s street lamps were revamped from the dim gas and kerosene lighting of the time. Roselle became a model for other towns and cities to follow. It also set the stage for competition between Edison’s direct current system and Nikola Tesla’s alternating current system.
Health & Wellness
The U.S. government runs on Celsius. Just ask anyone on Capitol Hill. (Washington Post)
Celsius energy drinks have become Capitol Hill’s fuel, powering reporters, staffers, and even lawmakers through long hours of legislation and brinkmanship. Loved for its sleek cans, bold flavors, and hefty caffeine punch, Celsius has taken over vending machines and office fridges. Some Congress members even keeping secret stashes. While it’s marketed as a “healthier” alternative to traditional energy drinks, its growing cult status among Hill insiders feels like the perfect chaotic pairing for the high-stakes world of US politics. [Link]
Continue reading our weekly Brunch Reads linkfest by logging in if you’re already a member or signing up for a trial to one of our two membership levels shown below! You can cancel at any time.
Bespoke Report – 1/17/25 – This Time It’s Different
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we discuss why this time is different. We also discuss major index technicals, cross-asset performance this week, improving breadth, sentiment across investors, small businesses, and homebuilders, residential construction, bond yields, earnings this week across a wide range of companies, a preview of major earnings next week, leadership rotation in Europe, retail sales, inflation, foreign investors’ role in the US equity market, and much more!
