Q4 2022 Earnings Season Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q3 2022 and Q4 2022 earnings reporting periods.

Q4 2022 Recaps:

Boats and ATVs: Brunswick (BC), MarineMax (HZO), and Polaris (PII)

Hershey Q4 2022

Old Dominion Q4 2022

PulteGroup Q4 2022

Whirlpool Q4 2022

Mastercard Q4 2022

Tesla Q4 2022

Microsoft Q2 2023

Johnson & Johnson Q4 2022

Netflix Q4 2022

Bank of America Q4 2022

Taiwan Semiconductor Q4 2022

Constellation Brands Q3 2023

Cintas Q2 2023

FedEx Q2 2023

Adobe Q4 2022

Lennar Q4 2022

Oracle Q2 2023

Costco Q1 2023

Lululemon Q3 2022

Q3 2022 Recaps:

NVIDIA Q3 2023
Walmart Q3 2023
Target Q3 2022
Disney Q4 2022
Zoetis Q3 2022
Generac Q3 2022
Uber Q3 2022
XPO Logistics Q3 2022
Apple Q4 2022
Amazon Q3 2022
Ford Q3 2022
Alphabet Q3 2022
Microsoft Q1 2023
Tesla Q3 2022
Netflix Q3 2022
Johnson & Johnson Q3 2022
UnitedHealth Q3 2022
JP Morgan Q3 2022
PepsiCo Q3 2022
Constellation Brands Q2 2023
Nike Q1 2023
Costco Q4 2022
Lennar Q3 2022
Adobe Q3 2022
Oracle — Q1 2023
DocuSign — Q2 2023
Lululemon — Q2 2022

Recaps published during Q3 2022 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription

The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 2/2/23

The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000.  To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis.  The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday unless otherwise noted.  There were no changes to the list this week.

The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription.  You can learn more about our subscription offerings at our Membership Options page, or simply start a two-week trial at our sign-up page.

The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results.  The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday.  Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning each week.  Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price.  Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%.  Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.  It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs.  As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities.  Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking.  Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

Sentiment Streak Over

Given the collection periods ending last night at midnight at the absolute latest, the latest sentiment surveys would have hardly captured shifts in outlook following the latest FOMC decision or the strong market reaction to the FOMC.  That is to say, the latest AAII sentiment survey can be considered a bit stale. Regardless, the latest week’s survey from AAII showed a modest increase in the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish.  While still below the high of 31% from two weeks ago, 29.9% of investors reported as bullish this week.

It is a similar picture for bearish sentiment.  34.6% reported as bearish in the latest week which remains at the low end of the past year’s range of readings but slightly above the more recent low from two weeks ago.

Without any major shifts in bullish or bearish sentiment, bears continue to outnumber bulls as has been the case for a record 44 weeks in a row.  That being said, the bull-bear spread has been showing single-digit readings for three weeks in a row.  The only other time during the streak of negative readings that the same could be said was last August.

While the record streak of overall bearish sentiment readings lives on for the AAII survey, combining the AAII survey with other sentiment readings like the NAAIM Exposure Index and the Investors Intelligence survey shows sentiment is finally back to bullish, if even just barely. As shown in the first chart below, the average sentiment survey is now very slightly above historical average readings.  That is the first time this has occurred in over a year, bringing to an end a record streak of negative readings. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

Layoffs Still Not Showing

Jobless claims continue to impress with the latest reading on seasonally adjusted initial claims dropping to 183K which is the lowest level since April 2022.  Claims have now declined in four of the last five weeks and have shown sub-200K prints in each of the past three weeks.

On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, claims are falling sharply as would be seasonally normal at this point of the year.  In fact, this week and last are two of the weeks of the year that have most consistently seen a lower sequential reading in claims on a historical basis.  As shown in the second chart below, last week has never seen claims move higher week over week while the current week of the year has only seen an increase 9% of the time.  While NSA claims were lower this week, it was not by much with the reading falling from 225.23K to just 224.36K.  The only other time claims have fallen by less than 1K during the comparable week of the year was in 2006. Although the most recent week’s data was not as strong as might be expected given seasonality and that very well could be a result of recent layoffs, claims remain at historically strong levels.

As for continuing claims, which are lagged an additional week to the initial claims number, the latest reading came in at 1.655 million versus expectations for an increase to 1.684 million.  Unlike initial claims, continuing claims are much further above last year’s lows, however, the past several weeks have marked a pause in what had been a steep uptrend that had developed in the back half of last year. Additionally, as for the actual level of claims, the most recent readings remain impressively strong and consistent with pre-pandemic levels that had not been seen in around 50 years. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/2/23 – Lots of Likes to Go Around

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“If you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything at any time, and you would achieve nothing.” – Margaret Thatcher

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members.  Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.

Ultimately, it all comes down to the fact that everyone just wants to be liked.  After months of hawkish rhetoric even as inflation pressures started to ease, Powell has become as popular as the plague in financial circles, but yesterday he decided to tone it down a bit.  It wasn’t a lot, but a comment like “We have no desire to overtighten”, was all the market needed.  They took that centimeter and went miles with it. The Dow may have been flat on the day, but the S&P 500 finished up 1% and the Nasdaq tacked on a rally of 2%. We hear Powell even got a smile at the newsstand when he picked up the Post this morning (we’re not sure if it was the Washington or New York version).  This morning futures are higher again as Meta’s stock surges close to 20%, but lower-than-expected Unit Labor Costs added another leg to the advance.

Except for the Dow, all of the major index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer finished the day at ‘overbought’ or ‘extreme overbought’ levels, and YTD they’re all (again excluding the Dow) up at least 7% YTD with many already up by double-digit percentages.

For the S&P 500, it finished the day 1.95 standard deviations above its 50-DMA. Since Powell became the Fed boss in February 2018, the only other time the S&P 500 was further above its 50-DMA on a Fed meeting day (scheduled or unscheduled) was on 11/3/21. That was the last meeting before Powell ditched the term ‘transitory’.

The S&P 500 has ‘passed’ a number of tests in recent weeks. First, it was the 200-DMA, and then it broke above its downtrend line from the highs in January 2022. Yesterday, the latest resistance to go by the wayside was the December peak which resulted in a higher high.  Now, with the S&P 500 trading just under two standard deviations above its 50-DMA, it is at overbought levels where four prior rallies in the last 12 months have stalled out.  Each milestone that the market crosses reinforces the sustainability of this rally, but on the way up, there are always ‘roadblocks’ ahead.  They don’t call it a wall of worry for nothing!

Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals.  We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!

Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.

Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — February 2023

Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month.  Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US.  Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis.  Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service.  With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more.  The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.

We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment.  Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.

Bespoke’s Matrix of Economic Indicators – 2/1/23

Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum.  We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.

To access our newest Matrix of Economic Indicators, start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional now!

Bespoke Market Calendar — February 2023

Please click the image below to view our February 2023 market calendar.  This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month.  It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Fixed Income Weekly: 2/1/23

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.

In this week’s report, we discuss the TIPS market.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

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