Mega-Cap Sales
Since its record-breaking IPO last week, SpaceX (SPCX) has been the talk of the town, and understandably so, as the company debuted with a market cap above $1 trillion. As the company trades up another 11.5% as of this writing today, its market cap is now greater than $2.8 trillion. In the chart below, we put SPCX in the mix with the S&P 500’s largest companies, or those with market caps above $500 bn; as we have covered in depth previously here and here, SPCX is not yet a member of any major index, and the prospect of it joining the likes of the S&P 500 isn’t guaranteed despite the large market cap. Today’s move higher puts SPCX ahead of Elon Musk’s other company, Tesla (TSLA), by well over one trillion dollars, and it is now passing Amazon (AMZN) to rank as the fifth-largest US company behind Microsoft (MSFT).
While SPCX has quickly rocketed to become one of the largest companies in the world in terms of market cap, the underlying fundamentals are an entirely different story. As shown below, relative to those other mega-caps, SPCX has miniscule revenue on a blended forward basis. Its $46 bn of estimated NTM revenues are more similar to the likes of Visa (V), which trades with a market cap of $580 bn, and is not even half of what Tesla (TSLA) is estimated to have for the coming year.
Given this, its valuation on a forward price-to-sales basis is astronomical relative to these mega-cap peers. The stock is trading with a 61.7 forward P/S ratio. That compares to an average P/S ratio for the other mega-caps shown of 7.91.
To expand out the universe of stocks, of the Russell 3,000 members, only 64 stocks have higher P/S ratios than SpaceX, and the two largest of those with market caps of $68.25 bn and $46 bn are Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Strategy (MSTR), respectively. In other words, SpaceX is expensive relative to a wide universe and mega-caps alike.
Of course, equities are inherently forward-looking. And to play devil’s advocate to the fact that the valuation is extremely lofty, the company possesses a unique moat of space exploration in addition to having other high-growth avenues of business, namely AI. The other side of the coin of the high valuation is that markets are pricing the potential for substantial growth.
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Chart of the Day – Tied For the Biggest Miss on Record
SpaceX (SPCX) As Big As Amazon (AMZN)?
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are up another 5% this morning in pre-market trading ahead of the 9:30 AM ET open.
Based on where it’s trading right now, SpaceX has a market cap of $2.66 trillion. That’s the exact same market cap as Amazon (AMZN), which went public just over 29 years ago in May 1997.
Should current levels hold, SPCX would be the fifth largest public company in the US behind NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT). The gap between SPCX and MSFT is roughly $300 billion.
We’ve been monitoring space stocks for the past couple of months ahead of the SPCX IPO, and below is a basket of them using our Trend Analyzer tool (available to members here).
Late last week when SpaceX first began trading, the rest of the space-stock space sold off hard as investors rotated into SPCX. Some of them bounced back a little yesterday, but they’re collectively now just 1.3% above their 50-DMAs on average. Year-to-date, though, they’re still up an average of 75%, with six of the 24 stocks shown up 100%+.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/16/26 – Oil Drawdown Reaches 30%
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“Reality is wrong. Dreams are for the real.” – Tupac Shakur
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a strong start to the week on Monday, US futures are modestly higher this morning, with S&P 500 futures indicated 5 basis points higher, while the Nasdaq looks to gain 0.15%. Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year yield falling below 4.45%, while crude oil falls another 3.8% to under $78 per barrel for WTI. Even Brent crude oil prices are on the verge of falling below $80, and these declines all point to lower gas prices ahead of the July 4th holiday. Gold prices are slightly higher, while Bitcoin is basically unchanged at $66,500.
Asian stocks put in a mixed performance overnight. The Nikkei barely finished higher after the BoJ hiked rates 25 bps, pushing rates to 1.0% for the first time since 1995. Chinese stocks finished lower, while India (+0.7%) and South Korea (2.1%) both finished higher. The weakness in Chinese stocks came as Retail Sales fell 0.6%, which was twice the expected decline, while Industrial Production was slightly better than expected.
European stocks are broadly higher this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%. Italy is leading the way higher with a gain of 1.2%, while Spain lags. Economic sentiment, as measured by ZEW, came in higher than expected for both Germany and the entire EU region.
It’s a quiet day for economic data this morning, as the only notable reports on the calendar were Building Permits and Housing Starts for May. Building Permits came in slightly weaker than expected at 1.413 million versus forecasts for 1.418 million. The big surprise, though, was in Housing Starts, which came in much weaker than expected at 1.177 million versus forecasts for 1.430 million. That’s the smallest monthly reading since May 2020, and one of the largest misses relative to expectations that we can remember.
Lower oil prices have been a driver of higher stock prices over the last several days, and with crude oil trading down over 2% this morning, prices are down over 30% from their recent highs, putting the current drawdown from a 52-week high near the most extreme levels since mid-2023.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are up over 5% again in the premarket but were up over 10% at one point overnight. With a market cap of $2.5 trillion as of yesterday’s close, the stock briefly had a market value in excess of Microsoft (MSFT) overnight, and it’s still right around the same levels or slightly above Amazon (AMZN). Obviously, only a small percentage of the company’s shares outstanding are available for trading, so the stock is incredibly volatile for a $2.5 trillion company, but these moves for such a large company are incredible.
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The Closer – Industrial Strength, Grid in Growth Mode – 6/15/26
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- Although it didn’t finish there, Industrials reached a record high today as capital goods have been a leading area.
- As Transportation stocks contribute to the strength in Industrials, freight volumes have begun to rebound although price pressures still remain.
- With data center and re-shored manufacturing load being added to the grid over recent years along with other factors, the structural backdrop of US grid load is firmly in growth mode.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 6/15/26
Bespoke’s Mid-Year 2026 Investor Survey
Chart of the Day: Higher Monday Opens
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/15/26 – Lift-Off
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“There’s always one more way to do things and that’s your way, and you have a right to try it at least once.” – Waylon Jennings
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
What looked like a questionable week for the equity market up until early Thursday afternoon quickly turned positive, and US stocks finished the week broadly higher. Of the major index ETFs we track in our Trend Analyzer, the only one to finish the week lower was the S&P 100 (OEF), which tracks the 100 largest companies in the US, and it only traded down 0.13%.
Last week’s rally was broad, with smaller-cap stocks leading the market higher. The Russell Micro-Cap ETF (IWC) traded up over 4% and finished the week in overbought territory, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) also gained 4%. Mid-cap stocks also outperformed, with the Russell Mid Cap ETF (IWR) rallying close to 2.5%. Except for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), other large-cap indices lagged their smaller peers, trading higher by less than 1%.
Heading into the new week, the S&P 500 is 2.5% below its all-time high, so even after today’s open, the index will be trading shy of its recent highs. However, the declines from last week look increasingly like a successful test of the 50-day moving average, and traders will look to the 7,620 level to see how much resistance it puts up.
While large-cap stocks are still looking up at prior highs, smaller caps are looking in the opposite direction. The Russell 2000 traded at an all-time high to close out last week and will only add to those levels at the open this morning.
The broadening of the rally also shows up in the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which closed at an all-time high last week. While the S&P 500 tested its 50-DMA last week, its Equal Weight peer never even got close to that level.
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Brunch Reads – 6/14/26
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Stars and Stripes: Today is Flag Day, and on this day in 1777, the Continental Congress adopted what would become the first official flag of the United States. With the Revolutionary War still raging and American independence far from guaranteed, Congress passed a simple resolution declaring that the flag should feature thirteen alternating red and white stripes and thirteen white stars on a blue field, representing the thirteen states united in a “new constellation.”
The resolution was only one sentence long, and it left many details, including the arrangement of the stars, unspecified. While the familiar story of Betsy Ross sewing the first flag remains a cherished piece of American folklore, historians continue to debate her role in its creation. What is certain is that the new nation needed a symbol of unity as it fought for survival against Britain. More than two centuries later, the design adopted that day remains one of the most recognizable flags in the world.
Health & Wellness
Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly (NBER)
The long-running decline in US birth rates may be tied in part to the arrival of smartphones, with areas that gained early access to the iPhone experiencing noticeably larger drops in births, especially among teenagers and women in their early twenties. The findings suggest smartphones changed how people spent their time and interacted with one another, reducing face-to-face socializing and sexual activity enough to account for a substantial share of the nationwide fertility decline. [Link]
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