Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/1/26 – Now What?
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“If The Headline Is Big Enough, It Makes The News Big Enough.” – Citizen Kane
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Equity futures are slightly higher this morning as investors look to breathe a sigh of relief after a wild couple of weeks. Besides the massive gains in April, the massive deluge of earnings reports this week in terms of both quantity and market cap had the potential to create waves. But we got through it just about as well as you could ask for, as none of the major mega-caps blew up and Wednesday’s Fed meeting was a non-event despite all the pearl-clutching over the number of dissents regarding, not the policy decision, but the phrasing of forward guidance. The media needs something to talk about, though!
The bigger question is, with the most consequential earnings reports and Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair behind us, what will be the next catalyst? Iran again? That may be the case, though, as just now reports are crossing the tape that Iran has sent a new proposal to Pakistan.
Treasury yields are slightly lower in the US this morning, with the 10-year yield at 4.38%, crude oil is slightly lower, gold is down nearly 1%, and Bitcoin is up 1.5%. International markets are mostly closed this morning in observance of the May Day holiday, but Japan and the UK were both open, and the former saw a modest gain while the UK is down about 0.6%
The S&P 500 rallied 10.43% in April, marking the largest monthly gain for the index since November 2020 and the 14th month since WWII that the S&P 500 had a monthly gain of more than 10%. While moves of this magnitude were rare in the immediate years after WWII, they have been somewhat more frequent, but still uncommon, in recent decades.
The scatter chart below compares the S&P 500’s monthly change since 1945 to where it was trading relative to a 52-week high at the start of each month. Below that, we have zoomed in on the months that had double-digit percentage gains. At the start of this April, the S&P 500 was just over 6% below its 52-week high, and while that wasn’t the closest the index was trading to a high at the start of a double-digit percentage month, it was close. For all months with double-digit gains, the S&P 500 was trading an average of 15.0% (median: -10.7%) from a 52-week high at the start of the month.
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The Closer – Hyperscalers, New Low in Claims, ECI – 4/30/26
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- The S&P 500 booked a 10% gain in April for its best month since November 2020, and a big part of that was Alphabet (GOOGL).
- The Tech sector has ended its longest streak of consecutive closes in extreme overbought territory since November 2019.
- Initial jobless claims cratered to 189K last week, taking out the lows from the white-hot labor market of the pandemic reopening for the lowest reading since 1969.
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The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks – 4/30/26
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. There were seven changes to the list this month.
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The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated monthly on Thursdays unless otherwise noted. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning after publication. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 4/30/26
The Triple Play Report: 4/30/26
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report covers what each company does, what this quarter’s results say about their growth outlooks, and their histories of delivering triple plays. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read today’s Triple Play Report. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Chart of the Day: Earnings Deliver
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/30/26 – We Made It!
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“We are seeing unprecedented internal and external demand for AI compute resources.” – Anat Ashkenazi, CFO, Alphabet
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It was called a make-or-break night for earnings, and the bulls made it through. While the four major hyperscalers aren’t moving in unison this morning, futures are higher with the Nasdaq leading the way, trading up 0.5% while the S&P 500 is up slightly less (+0.40%). Next on the list? Apple (AAPL) after the close. Treasury yields are moving lower after yesterday’s spike, while crude oil is finally seeing a pullback for a change, although WTI is still trading at $105 per barrel. Gold and Bitcoin are both trading up by about 1%.
International markets had a mixed session. Asian stocks declined pretty much across the board, with Japan down just over 1%, but the yen surged as the BoJ gave a final warning regarding yen intervention. In Europe, stocks are generally higher with the STOXX 600 trading up 0.7%, led higher by the FTSE 100, which is up over 1%.
It’s a busy day for economic data in the US on top of tons of earnings, and outside of Chicago PMI at 9:45, all of the reports hit the tape at 8:30. We don’t have time to go through all of them here, but the results were generally OK. GDP was weaker than expected, inflation data was generally inline, Personal Income was stronger than expected, and jobless claims were much better than expected as initial claims fell below 200k!
This morning on CNBC, in a conversation between Gary Gohn and Andrew Sorkin, the former highlighted several positive aspects of the US economy right now. In response, Sorkin asked if it was “right that the market is just ignoring what’s going on in the Middle East right now?” It may feel as though, with the market hitting new highs, that it is ignoring what’s going on in the Middle East, but the reality is that up until this point, it hasn’t had much of an impact on the US economy.
Over the last several weeks, we’ve cited numerous examples of economic data coming in better than expected, and last week’s Beige Book reinforced that trend. The Fed is even less concerned about economic weakness now than it was several weeks ago. This morning, jobless claims dropped below 200K! The latest round of earnings reports also reinforces this trend. Through yesterday, 78% of companies reporting exceeded EPS forecasts while 70% topped revenue estimates.
Those numbers are impressive but also backward-looking. What really stands out is the guidance. 7% of companies reporting have raised guidance this earnings season compared to just 4% that have lowered estimates. These companies see the same dire headlines regarding the Middle East each morning as you and I, but they also see what’s going on in their businesses. Things are strong enough that they feel confident in raising forecasts when they could easily use the uncertainty over the war and energy markets as an excuse to play it conservative.
Yesterday’s earnings headline was the hyperscalers and how companies representing around 18% of the S&P 500’s market cap reported in one after-hours session. It wasn’t just the S&P 500. Since the close yesterday, companies representing more than 20% of the Dow reported earnings, but the main drivers weren’t Microsoft (MSFT) or Amazon.com (AMZN). These two companies represent a combined 8.7% of the index, but the big kahuna reporting in the Dow is Caterpillar (CAT). Because the Dow is price-weighted and CAT has a share price above $800 (second largest behind Goldman Sachs), it alone has a weighting of more than 10% in the index.
With shares of CAT trading up $48 in response to earnings, its gain will push the Dow higher by 300 points this morning. Combining that with the loss in MSFT and the gains in Amazon.com (AMZN) and Merck (MRK), these four companies will have a net positive impact of 320 points at the open. While that works out to a gain of over 0.6% for the index this morning, it still won’t be enough to push the Dow to new highs, as it would still be 2.6% below its record high from earlier in the year.
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The Closer – Hyperscaler Capex, FOMC, Crude Surplus – 4/29/26
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- Hyperscaler capex continues to rise at an impressive rate of 80% YoY for the four mega-caps that reported earnings tonight.
- The FOMC rate decision had four dissents, an unusual level of discord not seen since 1992.
- There was a surplus in crude net exports for the first time on record last week.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/29/26
Mega-Cap’s Make or Break Moment
The market is anxiously awaiting the biggest news of the day, and it’s hard to argue that it’s the FOMC decision and Fed Chair Powell’s final meeting. Instead, the after-hours session of earnings is today’s huge event as reports from four of the seven Magnificent 7 members hit the tape: Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). That is nearly $12 trillion in market cap, or 18.7% of the S&P 500’s total, reporting in one night.
Heading into quarterly results, this group has been on a solid run. Through today, Bloomberg’s equal-weight index tracking the Magnificent 7 members is up 20% versus the March 30th low. Given that rally, the index did in fact reach a new closing high on Monday, albeit that was only marginally above (3 bps) the previous peak on October 29th. As shown below, the lack of a meaningful breakout means the group is at an inflection point.
The MAG7 put in a triple top this past fall and early this year before the more prolonged selloff from late January through late last month. Considering the Magnificent 7 have hovered below those highs in the past couple of days, it is fair to say there has yet to be a meaningful breakout, and earnings will likely be a deciding factor in which way the chart breaks.
Looking under the hood, headed into earnings, the two strongest stocks among these names have been Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). As we noted in the Chart of the Day today, those two stocks are up 30.2% and 28.2%, respectively, over the past month. Perhaps more importantly, those rallies are resulting in 52-week highs. In AMZN’s case, the breakout has been more significant, but since the initial breakout last Friday, AMZN has pulled back to support at prior highs. GOOGL, on the other hand, has been in a tighter range over the past few days without the same clear breakout as AMZN saw.
Also, more insight into the performance of mega-cap stocks following big rallies into their earnings report, make sure to check out today’s Chart of the Day.
Shifting over to the other major reports tonight, the charts of META and MSFT have been two of the weaker ones among the mega caps. As shown below, META has been in a stubborn sideways trend over the past year, with the 200-DMA acting as tough resistance more recently. Meanwhile, MSFT has much further to go to reach its 200-DMA, leaving it in no-man’s land between its 50- and 200-DMA. With that said, the recent stall has occurred right at the downtrend line off of the past several months’ peaks.
In other words, good results on earnings tonight could mean clear 52-week highs for AMZN and GOOGL, a move above the 200-DMA for META, and a broken downtrend from MSFT.
Following tonight’s reports, Apple (AAPL) will be the next mega-cap stock to watch as it reports tomorrow evening. As we noted in yesterday’s Wealth Management Report, AAPL has seen its relative strength go nowhere in the past few years. Paralleling that, the stock’s price has hardly gone anywhere in the past six months. As shown below, it is the most rangebound mega-cap name, although earnings come as it has made a run to the upper end of said range.
Finally, we would note that the next trillion-dollar market cap Tech stock to report after Apple will be NVIDIA (NVDA) at the end of earnings season. NVDA’s chart is more closely resembling the strength of GOOGL or AMZN, with a recent breakout sans meaningful follow-through.
Although it is not a Magnificent 7 member, the same could be said for another trillion-dollar semiconductor: Broadcom (AVGO). AVGO’s most recent report was in early March, with the next report slated for sometime in June. While the stock is up solidly since that prior report, its breakout almost appears to be a pump-fake with a sizable gap down below previous highs this week.
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