Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q1 2024 and Q4 2023 earnings reporting periods.

Q1 2024 Recaps:

RH: Q4 2023

FedEx: Q3 2024

Nike: Q3 2024

Lululemon: Q4 2023

General Mills: Q3 2024

Q4 2023 Recaps:

Williams Sonoma: Q4 2023
Nordstrom: Q4 2023
AeroVironment: Q3 2024
Aaron’s: Q4 2023
NVIDIA: Q4 2024
Walmart: Q4 2024
Home Depot: Q4 2023
Deere: Q4 2023
Generac: Q4 2023
Airbnb: Q4 2023
AutoNation: Q4 2023
Restaurant Brands International: Q4 2023
Shopify: Q4 2023
Cloudflare: Q4 2023
Hershey: Q4 2023
Disney: Q1 2024
Arm: Q3 2024
Uber: Q4 2023
Chipotle: Q4 2023
Spotify: Q4 2023
Simon Property: Q4 2023
Palantir: Q4 2023
Caterpillar: Q4 2023
McDonald’s: Q4 2023
Apple: Q1 2024
Amazon: Q4 2023
Meta Platforms: Q4 2023
Honeywell: Q4 2023
Old Dominion Freight: Q4 2023
Starbucks: Q1 2024
Microsoft: Q2 2024
United Parcel Service: Q4 2023
Alphabet: Q4 2023
Whirlpool: Q4 2023
Super Micro Computer: Q2 2024
Norfolk Southern: Q4 2023
American Express: Q4 2023
IBM: Q4 2023
Tesla: Q4 2023
ASML: Q2 2024
Texas Instruments: Q4 2023
Netflix: Q4 2023
RTX: Q4 2023
3M: Q4 2023
General Electric: Q4 2023
Schlumberger: Q4 2023
PPG Industries: Q4 2023
Taiwan Semiconductor: Q4 2023
H.B. Fuller: Q4 2023
Fastenal: Q4 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, BAC, GS): Q4 2023
Delta Air Lines: Q4 2024
Constellation Brands: Q3 2024
Conagra Brands: Q2 2024
Lamb Weston: Q2 2024
Walgreens: Q1 2024
FedEx: Q2 2024
Costco: Q1 2024
Brown-Forman: Q2 2024
SentinelOne: Q3 2024

 

 

Recaps published during Q1 2024 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription.

All or Nothing Comes Back

Although the S&P 500 is ending the week little changed (as of this writing it is trading 7 bps higher today), yesterday’s gain came in at a more impressive 86 bps. Besides the size of the move higher was that the gain occurred on very strong breadth with the S&P 500 registering an “All or Nothing Day”. We consider any day an “All or Nothing Day” when the daily advance/decline line (the difference between the number of S&P 500 stocks rising and falling on a given day) comes in at above +400 or below -400. In other words, these are days when broad swathes of the market trade in the same direction.

Recently, all-or-nothing days have been hard to come by. On a rolling 200-day basis, only 4.5% of days have registered such readings.  Following very elevated readings just one year ago, current levels are now down around some of the lowest of the past two decades.

For this calendar year, yesterday was also the first all-or-nothing day of the year. Since 2008, when the pace of all-or-nothing days experienced a structural increase in frequency as the popularity of ETFs ballooned, the only other year where the first occurrence came later in the year was 2017 when it took 72 trading days.

Not only have “All or Nothing Days” been fairly uncommon lately, but before yesterday it had been just over three months since the last one was observed. As shown below, that is one of the longer streaks of the past couple of decades. The last streak of such a length ended in late January 2020. Of course, there have been multiple streaks that have run much longer such as 2006 and 2018 which were nearly twice as long. Or going further back to the 1990s (not pictured in the chart below), there have been streaks that have gone on upwards of 561 trading days.

In the table below, we show the performance of the S&P 500 following the end of each other streak without an all-or-nothing day since 1990 that has lasted at least three months.  This most recent streak just barely made that three-month mark, but following prior streaks performance was mixed.  After these streaks have ended, the S&P 500 has traded higher only a little better than half the time one week, one month, and three months later. Additionally, median returns were weaker than the norm for all periods since 1990.  Six months to a year later, the S&P 500 traded higher much more consistently, albeit again median returns have trailed the norm.


 

 

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/28/24 – Hold Your Horses

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Even if you don’t have the authorities – and frankly I didn’t have the authorities for anything – if you take charge, people will follow.” – Hank Paulson

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures were little changed coming into the 8:30 data dump this morning, even as Ged Governor Waller implied that investors should hold their horses regarding rate cuts by saying he needed to see additional evidence of decelerating inflation before thinking about cutting rates.  This morning’s data was generally positive as jobless claims were pretty much right in line with forecasts, while GDP was revised higher.  Inflation data in the form of the GDP Price Index and the core PCE Price Index were either right in line or slightly better than expected. In response to all the reports, futures remain little changed although they may have seen a slightly positive bump.

It may be the last trading day before a long weekend, but one thing you may want to stick around to watch for is whether the S&P 500 can squeak by with a double-digit percentage gain for the first quarter. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500’s quarter-to-date gain was 10.04%, so any gain today will make it two straight quarters of double-digit percentage gains.  Any decline, however, of even more than a point in the S&P 500 will put the quarter just shy of a 10% gain.

Taking an optimistic approach, the table below shows the performance of the S&P 500 following every prior period where the S&P 500 was up at least 10% since WWII. For each period, we show the S&P 500’s performance following the end of the second double-digit percentage quarter. The following month tended to see some weakness with a median decline of 0.75% and gains just three out of seven times.  Three months later, returns shifted positive with a median gain of 1.67%, but none of the streaks extended to a third quarter of double-digit gains.  Six months later, performance was also positive with gains more than two-thirds of the time, and one year later, the S&P 500’s median gain was 9.55% with positive returns all but once. The only time the S&P 500 wasn’t up over the next year was following the occurrence in Q4 2010, and that decline was just 0.002%.

Whether the market finished up 10% or more for the quarter, barring a very bad day, it will be the fifth straight positive month for the S&P 500, but one area of the market that hasn’t contributed much to this month’s rally is the mag 7. Through yesterday’s close, two of the seven stocks in the group were down month to date, and five were underperforming the S&P 500. That’s been an uncommon trend since the bull market kicked off in late 2022. The last time the S&P 500 was up in a given month and five of the seven mag 7 stocks underperformed the index was in October 2022.

Read today’s entire Morning Lineup.

For more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

The Closer – Banks and Central Banks, CFOs and Automation – 3/27/24

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look into the performance of bank stocks and latest action in central banking (page 1).  We then dive into the latest business uncertainty data from the Atlanta Fed (page 2).  Switching to the Richmond Fed, we then provide an overview of the latest CFO survey data (page 3 and 4). We finish with recaps of today’s 7 year note auction (page 5) and EIA petroleum stockpiles (page 6).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Fixed Income Weekly — 3/27/24

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 3/27/24

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world.  For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates.  The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation.  It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy.  The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management.  It’s published the last Wednesday of every month at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.

You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!

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