Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

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Restaurants

I’m a Chef in a Seaside Town. I’m Not an Epidemiologist. by Rob Anderson (The Atlantic)

Some insight into the huge challenges faced by entrepreneurs who are trying to balance what their customers demand (and that’s not the same for all customers) with the safety of their staff and values of their communities. [Link; soft paywall]

Le Pain Quotidien’s U.S. Restaurants File for Bankruptcy by Andrew Sucrria (WSJ)

Once ubiquitous in major cities, the American arm of Belgium’s bakery chain has filed for bankruptcy and plans to sell remaining assets for $3mm. [Link; paywall]

COVID Concerns

So Where Did the Virus Come From? by Matt Ridley (WSJ)

Slow pace of mutation in the SARs-CoV-2 virus is good news in terms of vaccine development, but raises uncomfortable questions about where the virus came from and why it isn’t behaving like other viruses; its attributes leave the door open to a human source even if definitive evidence for that scenario is lacking. [Link; paywall]

Is the “science” behind the lockdown any good? by Jemima Kelly (FTAV)

A detailed, nuanced, and thoughtful essay discussing the limitations of science, public health policy, and risk management of the COVID-19 outbreak. [Link; registration required]

Estimating the Effect of State-Level Stay-at-Home Orders by William J. Luther (SSRN)

While lockdowns and stay-at-home orders have been described as unnecessary and the source of economic pain, Google Mobility data shows individuals reduced activity before those policy measures and do little to explain changes in behavior. [Link]

China

Behind the Fall of China’s Luckin Coffee: a Network of Fake Buyers and a Fictitious Employee by Jing Yang (WSJ)

A deep dive into the fraudulent practices at Luckin Coffee which fueled massive growth and eventually the collapse in the stock with delisting pending. [Link; paywall]

Alibaba is looking for 100,000 influencers to help brands sell their goods by Ben Stevens (Charged)

A new subsidiary of the ubiquitous Chinese internet company is hoping to organize and systematize social media influencers into a formal advertising arm. [Link]

Social Studies

Weddings Are Off but Marriage Is On by Suzanne Kapner (WSJ)

It’s still not safe to hold large gatherings, but just because new marriages can’t start with a big party doesn’t mean couples across the country aren’t still tying the knot. [Link; paywall]

Pensacola Blue Wahoos List Stadium on Airbnb to Rent by Jenna West (SI)

The Minnesota Twins’ double-A affiliate Blue Wahoos are offering their stadium for rent on Airbnb as a way to raise revenue without games being played. [Link]

Vaccines

He experienced a severe reaction to Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate. He’s still a believer by Matthew Herper (STAT News)

A volunteer for the Moderna vaccine trial developed a fever, fainted, and had to be hospitalized after his adverse reaction, but he’s discussing his experience to shed insight into the process of finding the right dose to activate the immune system without risking the health of patients. [Link]

Profiles

The Remaking of Steve Buscemi by Gabriella Paiella (GQ)

A glorious rundown of the life, career, and artistry of beloved Park Slope resident and ubiquitous subject of the silver screen, Steve Buscemi. [Link]

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Have a great weekend!

After an absolutely amazing April, traders were in no mood to sell this May.  Within the Russell 1000, which tracks the 1,000 largest US stocks by market cap, the index’s components rallied an average of 5.3% with just over 70% of the index’s components trading up during the month.  In the table below, we highlight some of the biggest winners.  Some of these names may sound familiar, but there are bound to be a few that you’ve never heard of.

This month, three stocks in the Russell 1000 gained more than 50%.  The best of those three was Twilio (TWLO).  After closing out April at a price of $112.3, the stock rallied 73% to just shy of $200 per share.  So far in 2020, TWLO has almost doubled.  Not familiar with TWLO?  The company creates a number of APIs that enable voice, video, and messaging capabilities to their platforms. So when you get a text from UBER telling you that your car is on its way, that message is likely powered by TWLO’s software.

Looking through the list of this month’s winners, like TWLO, a large share of the stocks listed come from the Technology sector.  Of the 34 names on the list, 14 are form the Tech sector, and the next closest sector – Consumer Discretionary – has just seven stocks on the list.  The top-performing stock from the Consumer Discretionary sector has been Wayfair (W), which has gained nearly 38%.  Apparently, after being stuck at home for the last several weeks, many Americans have decided they need some new furniture.

In total, eight of the eleven GICS sectors are represented on the list.  The only sectors not making the cut?  Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities.  Maybe next month.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional for full access to our research and interactive tools.

As we noted in yesterday’s Sector Snapshot, if you were to pick out any one stock in the S&P 500, odds are it would be above its 50-DMA.  Currently, 96.24% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-DMAs.  On a sector basis, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, and Materials all have 100% of their stocks above their 50-DMAs.  That is a huge share of the index sitting above their 50-DMAs at once.  As shown in the chart below, times in which there have been this many stocks above their 50-DMAs have been few and far between.  Of all days since the start of 1990, there have only been four other days with a reading as high or higher than the current 96.24%.  The most recent of these was March 5th, 1991 when 96.59% of the index was above its 50-DMA. Other than that, only February 11th through 13th of that same year saw these types of readings (97.4%, 96.6%, and 97.8%, respectively).  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our Sector Snapshots and much more.

In the interactive section of our website, one of the features included is the Stock Seasonality Tool.

The Seasonality Tool allows users to monitor seasonal trends for US equities and other asset classes throughout the calendar year.  One feature of the tool allows users to screen for which stocks and ETFs have historically performed the best and worst over the last ten years during periods with start and end dates that the user can set. Another feature of the Seasonality Tool are the gauges below that show the S&P 500’s median one-week, one-month, and three-month return over the last ten years from the close on the current date. In each gauge, we also show how each period’s performance stacks up on a percentile basis relative to all other periods within the calendar year.

The gauges below are from the Stock Seasonality Tool for today (5/28).  Looking at historical returns going forward from today, the results aren’t particularly attractive.  Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median one week return from the close on 5/28 has been a decline of 0.59% which ranks in just the 11th percentile of all one-week periods.  Over the following month, the median decline of 0.85% is even worse and ranks in only the 7th percentile.  For the following three months, the S&P 500’s median performance flips back to positive territory, but at less than +2% still only ranks in the 37th percentile.  This year most certainly has not been a year to sell in May, but if seasonal trends are any indication, don’t be surprised to see a June swoon.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access all of our interactive tools and analysis.

Investors and newsletter writers are finally seeming to be convinced by the rally as the S&P 500 has retaken its 200-DMA over the past week.  33.07% of respondents in AAII’s weekly sentiment survey reported as bullish this week. That is up from 29% last week and the highest level of bullish sentiment since April 16th when it reached 34.86%.

As for bearish sentiment, after the 1.17 percentage point decline to 42.13% this week, AAII’s survey is reading the lowest level of bearish sentiment since mid-April. This week was the third consecutive week with bearish sentiment declining, but despite that it is still fairly elevated. In fact, this week marked the twelfth consecutive week in which bearish sentiment was at least one standard deviation above it historical average (30.48%).  That is the longest such streak since a 14-week long streak in 2008.

Finally, neutral sentiment in the AAII survey fell for a second week in a row. Currently at 24.8%, it remains at a much lower level than has been the norm for the past several years (over the past decade it has averaged a reading of 33.76%) but also well off of its late March low of 14.5%. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

The table below gives a summary of mutual and exchange-traded fund flows as compiled by the Investment Company Institute for the week ending May 20th.

Equity fund flows remain negative. While there’s been lots of anecdotal evidence of retail enthusiasm in the equity market, fund flows are a very different story. This week was relatively modest, with equity fund outflows in the bottom 6% of all readings across mutual funds and ETFs. That totals $13.7bn of AUM out the door, with the worst hits coming for global funds which saw flows in the bottom 3% of all readings. The last 3 months and year have been the worst on record for aggregate equity fund flows across mutual funds and ETFs, and the worst three months on record for world equity funds. ETFs tracking equities have not seen large inflows but they are also not suffering the same kind of outflows as mutual funds.

Commodity funds and bond funds are a totally different story. The last three months have been the best on record for commodity fund inflows, while bond funds have seen readings in the top 3% of all periods for the last week and month; recent commodity fund flows are slightly cooler than their record pace of the last three months but are very, very strong nonetheless. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our full research platform and our unique investor tools.

Yesterday the Dallas Fed released monthly activity surveys for the services and retail sectors in May.  These surveys are similar to PMIs, with readings above zero indicating more respondents seeing improvement than those seeing declines, and vice-versa.  Looking at revenue first, Services businesses reported much less widespread revenue declines than in April.  As a reminder, though, a reading below zero still indicates revenue declines, so the May reading still indicates widespread drops in Services spending; that said, the outlook has bounced back into positive territory, which is a great sign.

Retail businesses specifically have seen an even bigger bounce in revenues that brings that state’s retail sector to almost zero revenue declines in May.  Retail businesses report an even more dramatic reading for future revenue expectations, with the series in totally normal territory at this point.

Finally, we note that while revenues look to be firming up, employment is still dropping and there isn’t a big surge in re-hiring yet for services businesses. The company outlook category, despite having half of its drop reversed, is still about where it was at the lows of the last recession.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our full research platform and our unique investor tools.