In the interactive section of our website, one of the features included is the Stock Seasonality Tool.
The Seasonality Tool allows users to monitor seasonal trends for US equities and other asset classes throughout the calendar year. One feature of the tool allows users to screen for which stocks and ETFs have historically performed the best and worst over the last ten years during periods with start and end dates that the user can set. Another feature of the Seasonality Tool are the gauges below that show the S&P 500’s median one-week, one-month, and three-month return over the last ten years from the close on the current date. In each gauge, we also show how each period’s performance stacks up on a percentile basis relative to all other periods within the calendar year.
The gauges below are from the Stock Seasonality Tool for today (5/28). Looking at historical returns going forward from today, the results aren’t particularly attractive. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median one week return from the close on 5/28 has been a decline of 0.59% which ranks in just the 11th percentile of all one-week periods. Over the following month, the median decline of 0.85% is even worse and ranks in only the 7th percentile. For the following three months, the S&P 500’s median performance flips back to positive territory, but at less than +2% still only ranks in the 37th percentile. This year most certainly has not been a year to sell in May, but if seasonal trends are any indication, don’t be surprised to see a June swoon. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access all of our interactive tools and analysis.