The BLS released October results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey this morning showing a significant uptick in job openings.  Openings totaled 11.03 million in October, slightly below the record of 11.098 million from this past July.  Openings rose by 431K month over month which ranks as the biggest one-month uptick since July and is in the 94th percentile of all monthly moves.

While the JOLTS data is insightful, it is released at a decent lag. Job listings website Indeed, however, offers a higher frequency (daily) dataset with more up-to-date readings with the latest data available through November 26th.   As we discussed ahead of the JOLTS release in last night’s Closer, postings through this reading have been hitting new highs and are 57% above the February 2020 baseline reading.  That comes with acceleration in new postings being put up on the site throughout the fall, but especially so in recent weeks.

Indeed also offers a breakdown based on industry.  As shown below, there are four industries that currently have postings that are twice as high as they were pre-pandemic.  Ironically, given the fair degree of labor market slack, the human resources sector continues to top the list with postings almost 120% above the baseline level.  Loading & Stocks, Production & Manufacturing, and Software Development are the other most in-demand industries through late November.  The other end of the spectrum continues to include many reopening sensitive areas like Hospitality and Tourism (which has also been on the decline in recent weeks as shown in the next chart below), though, these too are now all above baseline levels.

As previously mentioned, Hospitality and Tourism have seen a decline in postings recently likely as a result of rising case counts. Noting a few other industries, Banking & Finance, Construction, Cleaning & Sanitation, and Food Preparation & Service have all seen an acceleration in postings.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

The S&P Case Shiller home price indices for September 2021 were released recently and showed that home prices nationally are now up 47% from their prior highs made during the housing bubble of the mid-2000s.  And notably, all 20 of the individual cities/regions tracked by S&P Case Shiller have now eclipsed their prior housing bubble highs now that Chicago has finally moved above its prior high from September 2006.  As shown below, home prices in Chicago are now 1% above those September 2006 levels.

Two cities — Dallas and Denver — have home price levels now that are 100%+ above their mid-2000 highs.  Five more cities are up at least 50% from their prior housing bubble highs — Seattle, Portland, Charlotte, San Francisco, and Boston.

You can see Chicago home price levels based on the S&P Case Shiller indices just barely eclipsing their prior highs in the chart below:

The pandemic has of course been a huge boon for home prices across the country.  Below is a look at how much home prices are up versus levels seen in February 2020 just prior to COVID.  Prices in Phoenix are up the most post-COVID at 45%, followed by San Diego and Tampa at 35%.  Las Vegas, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, and Seattle have all seen prices rise by 30%+, while the remaining cities are all up between 19% and 27%.  Chicago, New York, and DC have seen home prices rise the least, but even these three cities are up ~20% since COVID hit.  Like this type of analysis?  See more of it with a Bespoke Premium membership.  Click here to learn more and start a two-week trial.

The Russell 2000 tracking ETF (IWM) has been particularly volatile as of late, and as of yesterday’s close, there have been seven straight trading days in which there was a 2% spread between the intraday high and low. A streak of seven had not been reached since July 2020 (7/2), and the current streak is tied for the longest since 6/22/2020. During the COVID correction, this streak of 2% intraday ranges actually reached 41 days, which was then followed by two streaks of nine trading days in the spring and summer. While the Russell 2000 is up sharply again today, because it gapped higher, the streak is likely to end at seven trading days unless IWM trades below $221.45 or above $226.64.

IWM has only had a streak of 41 or more three times since IWM began trading in late May of 2000. The longest streak came during the financial crisis from late 2008 through early 2009 when 67 consecutive trading days saw at least a 2% spread between IWM’s intraday highs and lows. Although the market currently appears quite volatile, it is hardy unprecedented, and IWM has experienced periods where it has undergone significant volatility for much longer periods than the current streak. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

On 6/5, El Salvador passed a bill that made Bitcoin legal tender in the nation effective 9/17. Since passing the bill, the country hosted a Bitcoin Week, which generated excitement from the crypto community in which he and political/industry leaders spoke about the logistics and benefits of legalizing Bitcoin as a legal tender.  During Bitcoin week, El Salvador’s leadership unveiled its plans for ‘Bitcoin City’, which will be funded by issuing a $1 billion Bitcoin Bond. The city (and the Bitcoin mining inside of it) will be powered by geothermal power generated from a nearby Volcano.

Over the weekend, El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele took to Twitter, stating that “El Salvador bought the dip” and added that he trades cryptocurrency for his country through his phone. Although Bitcoin enthusiasts view this adoption as revolutionary, the investing community has taken a different view. Since the country officially announced that Bitcoin would become legal tender, its bonds have declined in value.  As one example, the price of the country’s 7.65% bonds maturing in June 2035 has plummeted by 37.5%. Investors are wary of the idea of tying a country’s assets and balance of payments to an extremely volatile asset, and that has caused the yield on the bond shown below to rise nearly over 600 bps from under 8% to over 14% now.

The cost of insuring against default for El Salvador’s debt (credit default swaps) has risen significantly since the nation legalized Bitcoin as legal tender, and CDS spreads have more than doubled over the period. Will this dissuade other countries from using cryptocurrencies as legal tender? Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day free trial!

Crime

A Michigan woman tried to hire an assassin online at RentAHitman.com. Now, she’s going to prison. by Jonathan Edwards (WaPo)

A website run by a North Carolina man has served as a honeypot for those with murderous intentions for over a decade, with a Michigan woman angry at her ex-husband the latest would-be killer to be ensnared by law enforcement after requesting information from the site. [Link; soft paywall]

Hiding in plain sight: How one of the country’s most-wanted fugitives led a quiet life in Lynnfield by Emily Sweeney (Boston Globe)

A 1969 bank robbery was never solved after a teller walked out with the equivalent of $1.6mm in today’s dollars, slipping into obscurity as a resident of a Boston suburb. [Link; soft paywall]

Metaverse Madness

A plot of virtual land that went for $4.3 million in The Sandbox is the most expensive metaverse property sale ever by Carla Mozée (Business Insider)

Republic Realm, a firm focused on the purchase and development of digital real estate and assets, purchased space in the Sandbox metaverse for $4.3mm this week. We wish we knew what that meant, exactly. [Link]

Metaverse Real Estate Piles Up Record Sales in Sandbox and Other Virtual Realms by Konrad Putzier (WSJ)

This explainer on the process of digital land sales offers some further explanation as to what exactly is going on with the process, but we still have many questions, not least of which being how the supply of land is constrained. [Link; paywall]

Macy’s Turns Thanksgiving Day Parade Balloons Into NFTs by Joseph Pisani (WSJ)

Just about everything is being turned into an NFT these days, with the iconic balloons floating above Manhattan the latest unique items being assigned an arbitrary value and slapped on the blockchain. [Link; paywall]

History

America’s First Banned Book Really Ticked Off the Plymouth Puritans by Matthew Taub (Atlas Obscura/Pocket)

One of the country’s first banned books was a jeremiad against the leadership of Puritan New England’s early colonial management. The 1637 tome wasn’t the only thing its author did to enrage the other colonists. [Link]

Autos

Ford teases a new cable capable of charging electric cars in 5 minutes by Mark Wilson (Fast Company)

Ford (F) is researching a new cable that would allow a massive dump of electricity into a vehicle battery and turn a charging stop into the same layover time as a gas station visit in an ICE vehicle. [Link]

Auto chip shortage shows new sign of easing as inventories rise by Ryosuke Eguchi (Nikkei Asia)

Semiconductors which find their way into new cars are finally becoming easier to lay hands on as major suppliers reported higher inventories for the first time in at least 9 months during the month of September. [Link]

Extreme Biology

Microsoft Makes Breakthrough in the Quest to Use DNA as Data Storage by Phillip Tracy (Gizmodo)

DNA is a remarkably dense storage medium, with every movie ever made able to fit in a volume the size of a sugar cube. It’ll be some time before DNA-based memory storage is viable commercially but researchers are getting closer to that holy grail of cheap data warehousing. [Link]

World’s vast networks of underground fungi to be mapped for first time by Fiona Harvey (The Guardian)

Huge networks of underground plants in the same family as mushrooms are a critical support for biological systems like forests. A new initiative seeks to understand and map the networks around the world. [Link]

Labor Markets

The US is facing an unlikely shortage: Santas. by Sarah Al-Arshani (Business Insider)

Lots of people are looking for Santa, with inquiries to hiresanta.com surging 121% this year compared to the last two years. At the same time, many Santas are retiring, and others are worried about the pandemic; still more have passed away thanks to COVID. [Link]

North Carolina’s Furniture Hub Is Booming. What Comes Next? by Jeanna Smialek (NYT)

The surge in demand for furniture fueled by the pandemic is proving a temporary boon for furniture makers in North Carolina, but factories fear orders will drop off and as a result are hesitant to ramp up hiring and capacity expansion. [Link]

Numbers

Today’s date is rare: It reads the same way forward, backward and upside down by Jay Cannon (USAToday)

Not only was the 2^nd of December a palindrome, reading the date also reads the same upside down. Another such palindrome date is due until March 2^nd of 2030. [Link]

Mining Bitcoin with pencil and paper: 0.67 hashes per day by Ken Shirriff (Righto)

There is some very complicated math underpinning cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but that doesn’t mean it can’t still be done by hand. [Link]

Easy Marks

Notable Bets: November among worst months ever for betting public by David Purdum (ESPN)

Amidst an explosion of gambling legalization and betting apps, 60% of November NFL games had seen underdogs cover the spread, leading to a historic route among bettors. [Link]

Stock Funds Took in More Cash in 2021 Than Two Decades Combined by Ksenia Glouchko (Bloomberg)

Nearly $1trn has followed into ETF and mutual funds this year, more than each of the last 19 years…combined! [Link; soft paywall]

COVID

Do childhood colds help the body respond to COVID? by Rachel Brazil (Nature)

Children who are exposed to a given strain of flu are better at fighting that strain off the rest of their lives. It’s an open question whether the same process will play out with COVID. [Link]

Read Bespoke’s most actionable market research by joining Bespoke Premium today!  Get started here.

Have a great weekend!

This week was particularly volatile for the stock market with the S&P 500 seeing 1%+ moves every trading day from Monday through Thursday and then a decline of close to 1% on Friday.  We came across Etsy (ETSY) on Friday when it was down 7% on the day, and then we noticed that the stock had been down 2% or more on every trading day this week.  In wondering how many other stocks were down 2%+ every day this week, we found a total of 12, and they’re all listed below.  Along with Etsy, the other notable losers include Affirm (AFRM), Oatly (OTLY), and Clear Secure (YOU).  Affirm’s worst day was Wednesday when it fell 8%, but it fell another 5.7% on Friday to close the week down 21.7%.  Oatly began the week down 3.7% on Monday and down 3.9% Tuesday before falling 6.1% on Wednesday.  Smaller declines of 2% on Thursday and 2.8% on Friday left OTLY only down 17.3% for the week.  That’s relatively good compared to Kirkland’s (KIRK), which fell 39.1% on the week after losing a quarter of its value on Thursday and then another 8.5% on Friday.

At the close on Wednesday (12/1), the small-cap Russell 2,000 had fallen 12.1% from its recent high on November 8th, leaving the index in “correction” territory.  A market “correction” is a drop of 10%+ that was preceded by a rally of at least 10% on a closing basis.  This correction for the Russell 2,000 is its 58th since data for the index begins in 1978.  Below is a table showing prior corrections for the Russell. The average correction sees the index fall 18.35%, which is just shy of the 20% threshold for a “bear market.”  The median correction is a little smaller at -15.4%.  In terms of length, the average Russell correction has lasted 73 days, while the median is 62 days.  For the current Russell 2,000 correction to reach average levels, it would need to fall another 7% from here, and it would come to an end on January 20th, 2022.

In terms of extremes, the biggest correction that the Russell 2,000 has ever experienced was the 41.9% decline seen during the initial COVID Crash from 1/16/20 to 3/18/20.  The longest correction lasted 397 days from 6/24/83 to 7/25/84.  In terms of the shortest correction, there were two that lasted 3 days.  One of those came during the Financial Crisis while the other happened last June.  Like this type of analysis?  See more of it with a Bespoke Premium membership.  Click here to learn more and start a two-week trial.