Apr 14, 2026
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“The clouds appeared and went away, and in a while they did not try anymore.” – John Steinbeck
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Can we make ten in a row? Along with the Dow and S&P 500, futures on the Nasdaq indicate a gain of over 0.5% at the open, and if those gains hold throughout the session, it would be the Nasdaq’s 10th day in a row of gains. Treasury yields are little changed, but at 4.299%, the 10-year yield is still well off its recent highs. Oil prices are also down over 2% to below $97 per barrel on reports Iran may pause shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to keep potential talks later this week from falling apart. As has been the case recently, signs of easing tensions have also put a bid under gold with the metal up 0.65% to $4,800 per ounce. Lastly, Bitcoin is up another 2% this morning and back above $74K to its highest level since St. Patrick’s Day. If those gains hold, it would also break the downtrend that has been in place since the highs late last year.
After a sluggish start to the week for Asian markets, the region surged overnight with the Nikkei up over 2%, while South Korea’s KOSPI rocketed 2.7% higher. Chinese stocks rallied more than 1% despite a stronger-than-expected trade surplus as imports surged 27.8% y/y compared to expectations for an increase of 11.1% while exports rose less than expected (2.5% vs 8.3%).
European stocks are also higher, although not by as much as in Asia. The STOXX 600 is up 0.6% with Germany leading the way higher (+1.0%) while the UK lags (+0.1%). One area of weakness in the region is the luxury goods sector, where weak results from LVMH drag that group lower.
The Nasdaq has now rallied over 12% since its intraday low on 3/30, and the rally ironically comes just as the index’s 50-day moving average (DMA) looks to cross down through its 200-DMA. That’s traditionally considered a bearish development, although history shows that theory is misplaced.
Since the rally off the March 30 lows, the Nasdaq hasn’t had a down day, rallying for nine straight days. That’s tied for the longest winning streak in the index since November 2021, and if today’s pre-market gains hold, it would be the index’s 34th double-digit winning streak. As shown in the chart below, these types of streaks were relatively common in the 1970s and 1980s, but their frequency has waned since 2000.
One driver of the Nasdaq’s gains has been semiconductors, which have been cooking. Since its low on 3/30, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rallied an impressive 27.6%. Making this even more impressive is that the index’s largest component – Nvidia (NVDA) – has rallied just 15% off its intraday low on 3/30. One stock in the sector stealing the show has been Intel (INTC), which, as we noted yesterday, has had its largest nine-day rally in at least 40 years. Whatever stock has been driving the SOX, the index has more than erased its declines from the Iran war and now trades at record highs.
Like the Nasdaq, yesterday’s rally took the SOX’s winning streak to nine days. That’s already tied for the longest winning streak since 2017, and if today’s pre-market gains hold, it would be just the fifth double-digit winning streak in the index’s history.
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Apr 13, 2026
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“Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances.” – Thomas Jefferson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The week hasn’t even started yet, but it’s been volatile already as equity futures gapped down more than 1% at the open last night and then rallied right up until around 7 AM when Goldman (GS) reported. That stock is down over 4% in pre-market trading, and the S&P 500 is now set to gap down 0.63%.
The culprit behind this morning’s weakness is once again the Middle East, as President Trump’s plan to put a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has crude oil up over 7% and back above $100 per barrel. With crude oil up as much as it is, you could argue that equities should be down more based on the relationship between the two since the war started, but as earnings season kicks off, the market is starting to trade on more than just oil prices.
In Asia and Europe overnight and this morning, the overall trend is lower as major averages on both continents declined or are trading down about 1%. Gold prices are also trading down about 1%, while Bitcoin is only fractionally lower, just below $71K.
As mentioned above, futures are off the initial lows from last night, but with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on pace to gap down 0.62% at the open, it would be the third-largest downside opening gap on a Monday of the year. It would also break a streak of four straight weeks where the market gapped higher on a Monday. Even during a war, Mondays haven’t been that bad lately. For the entire year, though, SPY’s median gap on Mondays has been a decline of 0.08% with positive returns half of the time.
The weakest day of the week in terms of where the market opens has clearly been Thursday. For the entire year, the average downside gap on Thursdays has been a decline of 0.27%, and since the war started, SPY has gapped down on every Thursday. As bad as Thursdays have been at the open, Wednesdays have been solid. On the 14 Wednesdays so far in 2026, SPY has gapped higher 12 times for a median gain of 0.21%.
Where the market opens is one thing, but where it goes for the next 6.5 hours from the open to close is just as important. While Mondays have been modestly negative at the open, it has been the best day of the week from the open to close with a median gain of 0.40% and positive returns 75% of the time. With a median open-to-close gain of 0.24%, Tuesdays haven’t been as bad either. From there, though. The trading day only goes downhill from there, though. SPY’s median change from the open to close on Wednesday has been a decline of 0.14%, with positive returns barely more than a third of the time. Thursdays are even worse with a median decline of 0.23%. While Friday’s median open-to-close change has been slightly positive, since the war started, SPY has declined from the open to close on Fridays every time for a median decline of just over 1% (-1.04%).
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Apr 10, 2026
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“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.” – Jason Zweig
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P 500 still sits 2.8% below all-time highs, both the Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductor index — two groups seen as “leading” indicators — hit new all-time highs yesterday. The charts below show the breakouts to new highs for these two closely-followed areas of the market.
US equity futures are trading slightly higher this morning as we look to close out the week with five days of gains (and extend the daily win streak to eight dating back to last Tuesday).
Below is a look at the swing we’ve seen from oversold levels last week to back above the 50-DMA for most key US index ETFs:
While we’ve seen a nice bounce, price charts for ETFs like SPY, QQQ, and IWM still have work to do to break out of the choppy action seen for many months now.
Yesterday was another painful day for the software group, which fell another 3.9% as algos look to exit or short anything at risk of AI obsolescence.
As shown below, IGV is now down 4.8% since Tuesday’s close when the US/Iran ceasefire was announced versus a gain of 3.7% for the broader Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
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Apr 9, 2026
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“Success is like Halley’s Comet, you know. Every now and then it just comes around.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P 500 still sits 2.8% below all-time highs, both the Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductor index — two groups seen as “leading” indicators — hit new all-time highs yesterday. The charts below show the breakouts to new highs for these two closely-followed areas of the market.
While the Semis and Transports surged and held onto gains yesterday, the same can’t be said for Software. Below is an incredible two-day intraday chart of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) versus the iShares Software ETF (IGV). While IGV and QQQ tracked each other closely through yesterday’s sharp upside open, software (IGV) collapsed from there and ended up closing down 1% on the day, while QQQ held steady and went out with a gain of nearly 3%.
Apr 8, 2026
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“I looked for the same pitch my whole career, a breaking ball. I never worried about the fastball. They couldn’t throw it past me.” – Hank Aaron
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are sharply higher this morning, set to open up nearly 3%, after a two-week ceasefire was reached between the US and Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz and work towards a longer-term resolution. Of course, the anti-Trump commentary suggests that it’s a disastrous outcome for the US, while the pro-Trump commentary is saying this is all part of the President’s expert negotiating skills.
Our goal is to avoid the politics and focus on market action. Based on where futures are trading, the S&P 500 is set to move back above both its 50-DMA and 200-DMA at the open, leaving the index roughly 2.7% below its all-time closing high.
While stocks are up, front-month oil prices have crashed $20 down to the low $90s. After trading in overbought territory for 60 straight trading days, the S&P 500 Energy sector is down nearly 5% in pre-market trading. As shown below, the Energy sector ETF (XLE) will decidedly break its short-term uptrend when it opens this morning, but it’s still holding above its 50-DMA for now.
Apr 7, 2026
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“The secret of life is to say yes all the time, because when you’re old, you don’t want to say, ‘I wish I’d done this, I wish I had done that.” – Francis Ford Coppola
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s been an up-and-down night and morning for equities. moving from negative to positive and back to negative levels. Barring any movement on the diplomatic front, it’s going to be hard for investors to take on much risk ahead of the President’s 8 PM deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait or face the wrath of the US military. At no time would a Taco Tuesday be more welcome than today, but the President has shown no signs of backing down. His latest Truth Social post comments from just a few minutes ago threaten that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” That is, unless “something revolutionary wonderful can happen”.
Besides the weakness in equity futures, Treasury yields are little changed, crude oil is up over 3%, gold is remarkably unchanged, and Bitcoin is down 2%.
Japanese stocks reopened from the long holiday weekend and finished the day effectively unchanged, while Hong Kong remained closed. Chinese stocks had marginal gains while South Korea and Australia were up close to 1% or more. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, concerns have grown over the availability of not just energy, but also helium supplies for South Korea’s chip industry. Officials announced last night, though, that the country’s chip assemblers have secured supplies of at least four months.
In Europe, we’re seeing a modestly positive start to the week after the four-day weekend. Service sector PMIs for the continent declined slightly less than expected, while it was a mixed bag at the individual country level. France and Italy are leading in early trading with gains of about 0.5%, while Germany is unchanged.
US stocks have made a nice comeback over the last year, moving from an environment where most sectors were either oversold or extremely oversold to one where most sectors are back to neutral. Starting with where things stood last week at this time, most sectors had declined over the prior week with several, like Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, experiencing declines of more than 4%. Those declines also put all three sectors into extreme oversold territory along with Industrials and Health Care. The only sectors above their 50-DMAs were Energy (which was overbought) and Utilities.
With the S&P 500 up four days in a row since the snapshot above was taken, we’ve seen a mass exodus out of oversold territory. The only sector down over the last week is Energy, while every other sector is up at least 1%, including four with gains of more than 4%. While three sectors – Communication Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary – remain in oversold territory, they’re all close to moving out. That said, Energy and Utilities are still the only two sectors above their 50-DMAs, so there’s still plenty of room for improvement.
Like most sectors, the S&P 500 also managed to move out of oversold territory yesterday (light blue shaded region), an area it has been in since early March.
In fact, yesterday’s rally ended a streak of 21 trading days where SPY closed in oversold territory. That was the longest streak since the one that ended the bear market in October 2022, and it was only one of eleven streaks in SPY’s history since 1993 that lasted four weeks or more. The longest of these streaks was 36 trading days ending in April 2001, and eight lasted longer than 21 days.
