Apr 7, 2026
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“The secret of life is to say yes all the time, because when you’re old, you don’t want to say, ‘I wish I’d done this, I wish I had done that.” – Francis Ford Coppola
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s been an up-and-down night and morning for equities. moving from negative to positive and back to negative levels. Barring any movement on the diplomatic front, it’s going to be hard for investors to take on much risk ahead of the President’s 8 PM deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait or face the wrath of the US military. At no time would a Taco Tuesday be more welcome than today, but the President has shown no signs of backing down. His latest Truth Social post comments from just a few minutes ago threaten that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” That is, unless “something revolutionary wonderful can happen”.
Besides the weakness in equity futures, Treasury yields are little changed, crude oil is up over 3%, gold is remarkably unchanged, and Bitcoin is down 2%.
Japanese stocks reopened from the long holiday weekend and finished the day effectively unchanged, while Hong Kong remained closed. Chinese stocks had marginal gains while South Korea and Australia were up close to 1% or more. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, concerns have grown over the availability of not just energy, but also helium supplies for South Korea’s chip industry. Officials announced last night, though, that the country’s chip assemblers have secured supplies of at least four months.
In Europe, we’re seeing a modestly positive start to the week after the four-day weekend. Service sector PMIs for the continent declined slightly less than expected, while it was a mixed bag at the individual country level. France and Italy are leading in early trading with gains of about 0.5%, while Germany is unchanged.
US stocks have made a nice comeback over the last year, moving from an environment where most sectors were either oversold or extremely oversold to one where most sectors are back to neutral. Starting with where things stood last week at this time, most sectors had declined over the prior week with several, like Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, experiencing declines of more than 4%. Those declines also put all three sectors into extreme oversold territory along with Industrials and Health Care. The only sectors above their 50-DMAs were Energy (which was overbought) and Utilities.
With the S&P 500 up four days in a row since the snapshot above was taken, we’ve seen a mass exodus out of oversold territory. The only sector down over the last week is Energy, while every other sector is up at least 1%, including four with gains of more than 4%. While three sectors – Communication Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary – remain in oversold territory, they’re all close to moving out. That said, Energy and Utilities are still the only two sectors above their 50-DMAs, so there’s still plenty of room for improvement.
Like most sectors, the S&P 500 also managed to move out of oversold territory yesterday (light blue shaded region), an area it has been in since early March.
In fact, yesterday’s rally ended a streak of 21 trading days where SPY closed in oversold territory. That was the longest streak since the one that ended the bear market in October 2022, and it was only one of eleven streaks in SPY’s history since 1993 that lasted four weeks or more. The longest of these streaks was 36 trading days ending in April 2001, and eight lasted longer than 21 days.
Apr 6, 2026
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“It is the obvious which is so difficult to see most of the time.” ― Isaac Asimov
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After opening firmly lower last night, equity futures gained steam overnight on hopes of a ceasefire in the Iran war. After Iranian officials refuted those reports, though, we’re basically back to the unchanged line. It could be worse!
Following last Friday’s better-than-expected jobs report, treasury yields are modestly higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.36%. In commodity markets, crude oil is surprisingly contained at a decline of less than 1%, although that could change as reports surface that Israel launched strikes on Iran’s largest petrochemical facility. Gold prices are fractionally higher at just under $4,700 per ounce, and Bitcoin is up a healthy 3% and making a run back towards $70K.
It was a positive start to the week in Asia, even as China and Australia were closed. Japanese markets rallied 0.6%, while South Korea gained 1.4%. In Europe, markets are all closed, so there’s little economic or market data for investors to react to, leaving plenty of room for investors to focus their attention on Iran and the energy markets.
In the US today, the only report on the calendar is ISM Manufacturing at 10 AM. Economists expect the headline reading to pull back from 56.1 to 54.9.
Even though it was a short one, last week’s gains were enough to make it the best weekly performance of the year. Bulls will take gains whenever and wherever they can, but the rally, at this point, has done little to break the overall trend that has been in place for the last several weeks. The S&P 500 remains below the 200-DMA, and the downtrend remains intact. Whether the rally is a dead cat bounce or the real thing, it has to start somewhere, and only time will tell. At this point, though, bulls will need to see more improvement before starting to feel more confident.
As mentioned above, many international markets are still closed for the Easter holiday, so we wanted to see what seasonal headwinds or tailwinds the Easter holiday has historically had on the market. The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance in the week after Easter for every year since 1945. Overall, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.2% gain during Easter week with positive returns 59% of the time, but most years have been anything but average. Look no further than last year when the S&P 500 rallied 4.6% for its second-best Easter week performance, trailing only the 5.0% gain in 2001.
Looking at the chart above, you can see that performance around Easter week has been better more recently than in the years immediately after WWII, with fewer large declines during the Easter week. The chart below shows the 20-year average of the S&P 500’s Easter week performance since 1964, and clearly shows the improving trend. In 1964, the 20-year average performance was negative, but it has steadily increased over time, especially over the last 25 years. The 20-year average peaked in 2017 at 0.9%, but at 0.7% now, it’s the third-best reading of any since 1964, trailing only the readings in 2017 and 2018.
Unlike most other holidays, which fall on a specific date or particular point on the calendar, Easter can fall anywhere from late March to late April. Given Easter’s floating nature, we were curious to see if there was any correlation between the market’s performance during Easter week and when it falls on the calendar. The scatterplot below shows the date of every Easter since 1945 and the S&P 500’s performance during Easter. As shown, while Easter week performance has improved over time, there is zero correlation between performance and when Easter falls on the calendar. Nothing to see here.
Apr 2, 2026
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“The more wonderful the means of communication, the more trivial, tawdry, or depressing its contents seemed to be.” – Arthur C Clarke, 2001: A Space Odyssey
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Leading up to last night’s national address from the President, there was some optimism that he would lay out a path of ending the hostilities and/or reopening the Strait of Hormuz. We got neither. Instead, the speech was more just a reheating of leftover talking points from the last few weeks.
The market response was as you would expect. Equity futures are sharply lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both indicated to open down by at least 1.5%. Treasury yields are higher, with the 10-year yield up 3 bps to 4.352%. The big move is in oil markets, though, as WTI is trading up more than 9.5%, which would be one of the largest one-day gains since the war started! Gold prices are sharply lower with a decline of close to 4%, while Bitcoin is also 3% lower. With a three-day weekend looming and an incredibly large (and increasing) presence of US military assets in the Middle East, you can’t blame someone for not wanting to take too much risk ahead of the weekend.
In international markets, Asia was sharply lower, with the Nikkei down over 2% while South Korea tanked over 4%. European markets are all down at least 1%, continuing the trend of weakness we have seen since the President’s speech started at 9:02 Eastern last night.
The last two days of trading were a relief for bulls after the weakness of the last few weeks. As the chart of the Nasdaq below illustrates, though, the gains have done little at this point to break the downtrend that has been in place for the last several weeks. Mornings like today serve as a reminder of that. It’s also hard not to blame investors for being more cautious ahead of a three-day weekend, just as the President threatens in a national address to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.
What was notable about the last two trading days was that the Nasdaq ended Q1 and started Q2 with gains of at least 1% on each trading day. The quarter-end gains were easily attributable to relancing, but gains to start a quarter tend to indicate actual inflows, which is a positive. Since the Nasdaq’s inception in 1971, the last two days were only the 10th time that the index gained at least 1% on the last day of a quarter and subsequently the first trading day of the next quarter.
The long-term chart of the Nasdaq below shows each occurrence, and they didn’t occur during the early stages of market downturns.
Apr 1, 2026
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“I felt that if I stayed with them I would probably end up being the richest man in the cemetery.” – Ron Wayne, Co-Founder, Apple (AAPL)
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Wait, is this some upside follow-through the market is seeing this morning? Equity futures are firmly higher this morning as the S&P 500 is indicated to open 0.9% higher, while the Nasdaq is up over 1%. Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year yield down below 4.3%, while crude oil is down 3% to $98.5 per barrel. Brent crude, more sensitive to Iran events, is also down 2.5% to $101.4. That price is way below the levels it was quoted at yesterday, but that’s because the contract rolled overnight. Gold prices are up 2.5% to more than $2,760 per ounce, and Bitcoin is up over 1%. If these levels can hold into the end of the trading day, bulls will likely start to feel a bit more emboldened.
What a night the markets had in Asia. Markets in the region were sharply higher with the Nikkei surging 5.2%, and if you think that was impressive, look at the 8.4% rally in South Korea! Besides rebounding on the overall global relief rally on signs of a potential withdrawal from Iran, officials in South Korea noted that the country has ample supplies of helium and ethylene to last through the first half of the year. PMI Manufacturing reports for the region all remained in contraction territory, suggesting that the region’s economy is withstanding the impacts of the Iran war for now.
European markets were mostly closed when markets surged higher yesterday afternoon, so they played catch-up today. The STOXX 600 is up over 2%, as is the case with every regional market, including Italy and Spain, which are both up over 3%. Here again, PMI Manufacturing indices for the region were mostly positive, with Spain being the only notable laggard as it dipped into contraction territory.
Turning back to the US, it’s a busy morning for economic data with ADP Employment (higher than expected: 62K vs 40K forecast), Retail Sales (better than expected), Manufacturing PMIs, and Business Inventories all on the calendar. Besides those releases, we’ll also hear from a few Fed speakers and get auto sales for March throughout the day.
2026 is now behind us, and already it’s been an eventful year for the world and the markets. Our focus here is on markets, so we’ll start with what’s going on in the US, and specifically the S&P 500. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the performance of the eleven different sector ETFs during Q1 and where they closed relative to their trading ranges.
Starting with performance, it has been one of, if not the widest, performance gaps between the top and bottom performing sectors in Q1 that we can remember. Topping the list, Energy (XLE) has rallied more than 37% this year, while Financials (XLF) is down just under 10%. While the S&P 500 is down more than 4% this week, just over half of all sectors finished higher in Q1, while five declined. Interestingly or unfortunately, depending on your perspective, all the sectors that are lower YTD have declined at least 5%. At the other end of the spectrum, four of the six sectors that are higher YTD are up more than 5%. The only two sectors that haven’t rallied or declined more than 5% are Industrials (XLI) and Real Estate (XLRE). Talk about the haves versus the have-nots!
Looking out across the world, US stocks have outperformed their global peers since the war started at the end of February, but on a YTD basis, global stocks have still outperformed. As shown below, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) finished the first quarter down 6.03% and 4.63%, respectively, while most other regional ETFs are all higher, except Europe (VGK), which is down just 1.41%. Regardless of the paths they have taken in the first three months of the year, they all finished Q1 in either oversold territory or just barely outside of it.
Finally, a newsflash. Remember the days when the mega-caps traded as a monolith in terms of their outperformance relative to the rest of the world? In 2025, the correlation between the trillion-dollar stocks started to break down as they went their separate ways. In Q1, the mega-caps returned to more of a positive correlation in that they all underperformed the S&P 500 in the quarter. While the degree of underperformance varied widely, the fact that all nine of these stocks, which account for nearly 40% of the entire index, suggests that the other 491 have done just fine. In fact, they finished the quarter with an average gain of 1.02%!
Mar 31, 2026
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“I try not to worry about things I can’t do anything about.” – Christopher Walken
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Sometimes the headlines make you scratch your head. This morning, equity futures are sharply higher with the rally attributed to a Wall Street Journal report that “Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz”. As we highlight below, stocks have been following the lead of oil prices at an unprecedented rate over the last several weeks, and if the US just walked away from the Middle East with the Strait still blockaded, energy markets would likely remain incredibly supply-constrained, keeping prices high. The longer prices are high and supplies are limited, the worse it’s going to be for the global economy and ultimately stock prices.
Just today, the national average price of a gallon of gas is above $4 for the first time since 2022, and as shown in the image below, it has increased by more than a dollar in just the last month.
Regardless of the reason, equity futures are up about 1% this morning, treasury yields are lower, and crude oil is slightly higher. Again, higher oil prices in this environment are negative for equity prices, and the gains we are seeing in futures may be nothing more than rebalancing ahead of quarter-end. Gold prices are up over 1%, and Bitcoin has seen a fractional gain.
We’re still in the ‘shoulder season’ for earnings, but it’s a busy day for economic data. At 9:45, we’ll get the Chicago PMI for March, followed by Consumer Confidence and JOLTS at 10 AM. The Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence reports are both for March, so they will give some of the first reads on how the war has impacted economic and consumer sentiment.
If you want to know the direction of the equity market these days, look at crude oil and go with the opposite. It’s become cliché, but it also hasn’t been truer at any point in at least the last 20 years. Just look at the performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) compared to the US Oil Fund (USO) over the last six months. The two series have mirrored each other.
USO launched in 2006, and we compared the daily direction of the ETF and SPY for every trading day since its inception. The chart below shows the rolling 50-day total of the number of days that the two ETFs moved in opposite directions on the day. In the most recent 50-trading-day period, when USO zigged, SPY zagged 38 times, or 76% of all trading days. In the ETF’s history, its daily moves have never been more inversely correlated to the direction of SPY. The only other time the number of occurrences even approached current levels was back in August 2008. Ironically, that was also part of the price spike when crude oil first crossed $100, ultimately peaking above $147.
One sector that has felt the pain of higher oil prices is the traditional auto OEMS. Just moving alphabetically down the list, shares of Ford (F) had performed exceptionally well leading up to the war, with shares in a steady uptrend and trading at 52-week highs on the eve of the first missiles being fired. Since then, it’s down 20%.
General Motors (GM) performance leading to the war was also very strong, and even though it wasn’t’ right at 52-week highs, shares were up more than 70% in the prior year. Shares have declined more than 17% from their peak and are down 8% since the war started.
Unlike F and GM, Stellantis (STLA) was already weak leading up to the war and down sharply from its 52-week highs. Since then, it’s only got worse as shares are down 17% this month.
When you think of car stocks, Winnebago (WGO) may not be the first stock that comes to mind, but boy, is it ever exposed to higher gas prices. Right before the war, the stock was right at 52-week highs, perhaps on optimism that many Americans would take road trips to celebrate America turning 250. A month later, with gas prices at $4 per gallon nationwide, and suddenly that 10-mile-per-gallon gas guzzler doesn’t seem nearly as good an idea.
While traditional car companies with a focus on internal combustion engines have had a rough March, what about EV companies? Well, RIVN hasn’t rallied this month, but in this market, a decline of 1% is basically a win.
Until gas prices at the very least stop going up as quickly as they have, it’s going to be hard for these traditional auto stocks to get out of their own way.
Mar 30, 2026
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“The circumstances of the world are so variable that an irrevocable purpose or opinion is almost synonymous with a foolish one.” William H. Seward
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a rough finish to the week for bulls last Thursday and Friday, futures are looking to rally this morning after the President posted that “The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made.”
As optimistic as those statements are, the President has made a habit of making positive early-week comments to try and soothe the market. It’s become so predictable that the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament posted on X last night that “ Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.” So that’s where we are now.
Regardless of the investment advice from Iran, futures remain positive with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both indicated to open up 0.6%, even as crude oil is higher (but off the overnight peak). Treasury yields are also sharply lower as the 10-year yield dips down to 4.37% from 4.44% last Friday. Gold prices are also 1.4% higher, and both moves could be taken as a sign that investors are becoming more aware of potential recessionary risks if the war drags on.
In economic data today, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing is the only report on the calendar, and economists expect a modest rebound from last month’s modestly positive report.
US futures may be higher this morning, but it was a rough night in Asia, with the only green shoot being China, where the Shanghai Composite eked out a 0.2% gain. Other indices in the region were all down roughly 1% or more, with the steepest declines coming in South Korea (-3.0%) and Japan (-2.8%). The yen briefly slumped to its lowest level versus the dollar in nearly two years, but rebounded to finish off its lows of the day after BoJ officials hinted that intervention could be on the way.
European equities are in a more jovial mood this morning as the STOXX 600 trades up 0.4% in the early going, while the FTSE 100 leads the region with a gain of 0.9%, but the rally has been broad with every major benchmark in positive territory, at least for now.
The S&P 500 traded down another 2.1% last week, extending its weekly losing streak to five and taking the total decline over this period to 7.8%. After breaking below its 200-day moving average the week before last, the intensity of selling picked up steam last week, taking the S&P 500 down to the lowest level since August 7. For anyone who argued that the market had gotten ahead of itself and needed a rest late last year, you got what you wanted. Despite all the weakness, though, the S&P 500 is still more than 30% above its intraday tariff-tantrum low from last April.
The current five-week losing streak in the S&P 500 ranks as the first such streak for the index in nearly four years (May 2022) and the 30th such streak since 1953, when the five-day trading week in its current form started in late 1952. With a decline of 7.8% during the last five weeks, the current decline has been less than the average of 8.4% for all streaks since 1952. The deepest decline was 17.5% in June 1962, while the mildest was in July 2004 when the S&P 500 declined just 3.1%.
The long-term chart of the S&P 500 below shows when each prior streak occurred with a red dot. It’s interesting to see in the chart how these streaks were relatively common for much of the period from the early 1950s up through the Financial Crisis. Since the end of 2008, though, there have only been two other streaks in the last 17 years. Finally, in terms of whether these types of streaks represent buying opportunities or not, a look at the chart shows an inconclusive picture. Some of these streaks marked short-term lows for the market, but several others occurred right in the middle of longer-term downtrends.
