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“The best kept secret in the investing world: Almost nothing turns out as expected.” – Harry Browne

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

The S&P 500 has formed a downtrend that is clear as day over the last three weeks, as shown in the 15-day intraday chart of the index below:

As we noted in last night’s Closer, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has opened higher and then closed down from that opening level for four straight trading days.  This is a reversal from the intraday strength that we generally saw during the slow-and-steady rally seen from last October through March.

This morning, at least, it looks like SPY is set to open lower, and bulls will be looking for that gap down to be bought.

We discussed the Israel/Iran conflict in more detail in this morning’s Commentary, but notably, oil prices have pulled back significantly after an initial spike on news that Israel was indeed retaliating against Iran last night.  Oil popped 4% on the news last night, but it’s down 5% from those levels and now trading lower on the day.  You can see this action in the candlestick chart of oil below.  For now, oil’s 50-day moving average has still not been breached.

For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.