Jul 2, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Never do things others can do and will do, if there are things others cannot do or will not do.” – Amelia Earhart
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view yesterday’s CNBC interview from Closing Bell Overtime, click the image below.
US futures are little changed this morning as the S&P 500 looks to erase Tuesday’s modest losses. The major issue of the day will continue to be the Big Beautiful Bill and whether the House can pass the Senate’s version. A vote on that will be held either today or tomorrow, depending on when members can return to DC for the vote. Even when representatives return, passing the bill will be no easy task, as the slim Republican majority means Speaker Johnson can only afford a few no votes from his caucus. Betting against Johnson, however, hasn’t been a profitable strategy so far this year.
Overnight in Asia, equities were mixed with Japan falling just over 0.5% while Hong Kong rallied by a similar magnitude. The weakness in Japan stemmed from comments by President Trump, who expressed doubt that a deal with Japan would be reached by July 9th, in which case he could increase tariffs on the country to 35%.
The tone in Europe has been much more positive, with the STOXX 600 trading up about 0.5%. Unemployment in Europe ticked up to 6.3% which was higher than the 6.2% forecast, while Italy saw its jobless rate surge from 6.1% to 6.5%. That weakness should help to keep the ECB biased towards more easing.
In the US this morning, employment is also at the fore following this morning’s release of the ADP Employment report, which showed a 35K decline in payrolls in June, which was the first decline in over two years and well below the consensus forecast for growth of 95K. The ADP report has been consistently weaker than government data in recent months, and we’ll get the June Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow morning, but for now, this weakness lends to concerns over economic growth against a backdrop of uncertainty related to trade. With this report, you can practically hear President Trump’s fingers tapping out the next Truth Social post to Fed Chair Powell.
As we highlighted in the Chart of the Day, yesterday’s trading was all about rotation, where the best-performing areas of the market in Q2 lagged while the Q2 laggards outperformed. Another example of the rotation was in sector performance. The scatter chart below compares the performance of S&P 500 sectors during Q1 (x-axis) versus on 7/1 (y-axis). Here, you can see the rotation from the Q2 haves to the Q2 have-nots. The five worst-performing sectors of Q2 were the five best performers yesterday. Technology and Communication Services, easily the best-performing sectors of Q2, were the only two sectors to trade lower yesterday. As Andy Warhol once said, everyone gets their 15 minutes of fame, and yesterday it was the Q2 laggards’ chance to grab the spotlight.
Jul 1, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Every story needs an element of suspense – or it’s lousy.” – Sydney Pollack
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a new month, a new quarter, and a new half this morning, and while investors would certainly be happy with a repeat in terms of the returns during the half, they would prefer to do without the volatility. This morning, futures are drifting moderately lower after two straight days of record closing highs. The quarter is also getting off to an active start with the June ISM Manufacturing report at 10:00 AM, along with the May reports on Construction Spending and JOLTS.
While these reports will likely impact the market upon their release, so far this morning, there aren’t many headlines driving the market in either direction. While futures are lower, the magnitude of the losses has been pretty modest so far. In Washington, the Senate is still trying to pass the GOP Reconciliation Bill. That ongoing process has led to a resurgence in the war of words between Elon Musk, who hates the bill and is threatening to primary conservatives who vote for it, and President Trump, who responded with comments that Elon owes all his success to government subsidies and said DOGE should look into them.
Besides another flare-up in the spat between President Trump and Elon Musk, Tesla (TSLA) has been in the news this week as the company marked the 15th anniversary of its IPO on Sunday. Based on its performance this year, the stock hasn’t exactly been celebrating the milestone. While well off its April lows, it’s still down over 20% on the year, and this morning, it’s on pace to open down by another 5% after the President ‘truthed’ that DOGE should look into all the subsidies that Musk’s various companies receive. If these pre-market losses hold, it will also put the stock below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages, just as it experiences a ‘golden cross’ where the 50-day moving average (DMA) crosses up through the 200-DMA as both are rising.
Even with its 20%+ decline YTD, TSLA still ranks as the third best performing stock out of the current Russell 1000 members with an eye-popping gain of 19,849% since its IPO. The only two stocks that have performed better are Nvidia (NVDA), which has tripled TSLA’s gain, and Axon Enterprise (AXON), which is up just under 22,000%. Trailing behind TSLA, Broadcom (AVGO), and Texas Pacific Land (TPL) round out the top five stocks that have all rallied more than 10,000%. That’s a 100-bagger!
While the last 15 years have been great for TSLA, the road for traditional auto OEMs hasn’t been much bumpier. While the S&P 500 has rallied nearly sevenfold over the last 15 years, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have essentially gone nowhere.
Jun 30, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It would be good to be a fake somebody rather than a real nobody.” – Mike Tyson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The market enthusiasm that took the S&P 500 to new highs last Friday has followed through to the new week as the S&P 500 looks to gap up about 0.5% at the open. Financials are leading this morning’s gains as the Fed announced last Friday that all of the banks passed the stress tests. Goldman Sachs (GS) is leading the way with gains of over 3%, but all of the other major banks and brokers are up around 1% or more.
The only economic indicators on the calendar this morning are the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30. Washington will be a focus for the market today as investors look to see if the Senate can pass a version of the GOP tax bill.
Last Friday’s close in the S&P 500 marked the first new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 in over four months and now fully puts the tariff-induced near-bear market in the rearview mirror. It also completes one of the more stunning market cycles where the S&P 500 experienced one of its sharpest sell-offs from an all-time high on record, followed by one of its swiftest rebounds.
With the new high, we can also resume the count of new all-time closing highs for the S&P 500, which for 2025 now totals four. That may sound like a meager number, but two months ago, the thought of new highs for the S&P 500 seemed like a pipe dream. With roughly 125 trading days left in the year, we’re unlikely to get anywhere near last year’s total of 57 record closing highs this year, but you have to start somewhere.
Jun 27, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If we really want to know who is responsible for the mess we’re in, all we have to do is look in the mirror.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Less than three months after President Trump unleashed “Liberation Day” on the world and sent the S&P 500 plunging by nearly 20%, a new phrase has made its way back into the lexicon: new highs. Equity futures are higher this morning, with the S&P 500 trading at record highs following a strong session in Europe. Treasury yields and crude oil are modestly higher, while gold is plunging over 1% as investors continue to exit safe-haven trades.
For these new highs to hold through the closing bell, we still have to navigate a decent amount of economic data for a summer Friday with reports of Personal Income, Personal Spending, and PCE at 8:30, followed by Michigan Sentiment at 10 AM. The 8:30 data was mixed but mostly in the wrong direction. Personal Income came in sharply weaker than expected, falling 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Personal Spending fell 0.1% compared to expectations for an increase of 0.1%. On the inflation front, headline PCE was right inline with expectations at 0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y, but the core reading was a tenth higher than expected on both a m/m and y/y basis at 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively. The initial reactions to the data have been pretty muted.
Looking at US equity market performance, we were struck by how uniform the gains have been over the last five trading sessions. All fourteen of the index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer screen have gained at least 2%. At the top of the list, both ends of the market cap spectrum are represented with Microcaps (IWC) up 3.4% while megacaps in the Nasdaq and S&P 100 are the second and third best performers with gains of 3.26% and 2.90%, respectively. Relative to their short-term trading ranges, all fourteen index ETFs are at similarly overbought levels, and they are all at least 4% above their 50-day moving averages. The only area that returns haven’t been uniform is on a YTD basis, where the Nasdaq 100 is up 6.8% while small caps are in the red.
Jun 26, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It takes a great deal of bravery to stand up to our enemies, but just as much to stand up to our friends.” – JK Rowling
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
New highs for the S&P 500 are increasingly coming up on the horizon as the S&P 500 is on pace to open within 0.5% of its record closing high in February, but between here and there, we have a slew of data and Fed speakers to get through. Leading up to those reports at 8:30 and 10, Treasury yields are fractionally lower, while crude oil and gold are fractionally higher, and the dollar is lower.
FedEx (FDX) reported earnings after the close on Tuesday, and despite better-than-expected EPS and sales, the stock fell 3.3% in reaction to its report on Wednesday. The table below shows how FDX has reacted to earnings over the last four years, and the results haven’t been positive. Over this period, this week’s report was only the third time FDX reported better-than-expected EPS and sales for the same quarter. While the company has reported better-than-expected EPS 10 times in the last 16 quarters, it has only exceeded sales forecasts six times. The company’s inability to consistently exceed expectations, particularly in terms of revenue, suggests that management has a significant problem in managing Wall Street’s expectations. It also appears that investors have become increasingly frustrated with the company, as the stock has now experienced four consecutive negative reactions to earnings.
The one-year price chart of FDX also doesn’t look good. Each of the red arrows below indicates when FDX reported earnings. Even outside of those four days, the stock has seen a steady slide lower, falling from over $300 to the low $200s. For years, FDX was considered a leading indicator for the economy as its transportation network was among the largest in the world. A slowdown in FDX’s business signaled a slowdown in the economy and vice versa. Given that logic, should investors be concerned about the ongoing weakness in FDX’s results and share price reaction?
Jun 25, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Every generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.” – George Orwell
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Maybe it’s the summer heat, but after two days of solid gains, futures are listless this morning with the major averages showing little change in either direction. In Europe, major equity averages are flat to lower, with the UK unchanged, Spain is down over 1%, and the STOXX 600 trades 0.3% lower. After two days of sharp declines, Crude oil is looking at a gain of nearly 1% while gold is marginally higher and Bitcoin is back above $107K. In the Treasury market, yields are slightly higher.
Today’s economic calendar is light. New Home Sales is the only report (10 AM) on the calendar, and Fed Chair Powell will testify in front of the Senate this morning as well.
As geopolitical pressures eased yesterday, gold prices have seen a modest pullback with the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) falling just over 1.5%. Given the sharp decline in crude and the rally in stocks, you might have expected to see gold see an even sharper drop. However, as shown in the chart below, prices have been moving sideways for the last two months as they never really rallied as tensions started to simmer leading up to the past weekend. With the sideways action over the last two months, GLD’s 50-day moving average (DMA) has been in a game of catch-up to prices, and were it not for a bounce late in yesterday’s session, GLD would have closed below that level.
With GLD managing to hold onto its 50-DMA, it extended its streak of closes above that level to 114 trading days, which ranks as the second-longest since the ETF’s launch just over 20 years ago. The longest streak lasted 140 trading days and ended in March 2008, while the only other streak of more than 100 trading days ended in January 2011. For GLD’s current streak to reach a record, it would have to extend through August 1st.
While gold has been consolidating monster gains from the prior several months, platinum only recently got involved in the party, but it has been making up for lost time. This month alone, the commodity is up 25% after breaking above resistance in late May.
