Jul 11, 2025
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“Try and fail,but don’t fail to try.” – John Quincy Adams
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 hit another record high yesterday as certain speculative areas of the market continued to surge. This morning, though, bulls are taking a break as the latest round of tariff announcements from the President set the stage for a negative end to the week. The latest announcement causing the damage is a 35% tariff announcement on Canadian imports in what the President says is a response to the country allowing fentanyl to cross the border into our country. He then added that the 35% levy will go even higher is Canada retaliates. More broadly, President Trump also said he was planning blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on any countries he hasn’t already sent letters to.
Futures are negative in response with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indicated to open down 0.5% at the open. Treasury yields are also higher, but the 10-year yield remains below 4.4%. Crude oil and gold are both up 1%, but the gains in other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium are even larger at 3%+. The biggest moves to the upside are in the crypto space as Bitcoin is surging close to 4% at a record high of just under $118K while Ethereum is trading just under $3,000 with a gain of 6%.
Like the declines in US futures, Asian markets were mostly lower last night on concerns related to the latest Trump Tariff announcements. Those losses also overflowed into Europe as the STOXX 600 faces a decline of nearly 1% to close out the week.
In terms of what is leading the market, mega-caps remain in charge. The chart below shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 equal-weight (RSP) vs market cap weight (SPY) indices. When the line rises, it indicates outperformance of the equal-weight index, while a falling line indicates that the market-cap-weighted index is outperforming. At this time last year, RSP was in the middle of a short-term burst of massive outperformance, but the gains were fleeting, and by the end of the year, RSP had given up all of its outperformance relative to SPY. In the first quarter of this year, RSP outperformed again, but just like the fourth quarter of last year, the second quarter of this year saw RSP once again give up all of its outperformance. At one point, RSP will take the lead and keep it for a while, but for now, SPY keeps retaking the lead.
Looking ahead, depending on your time horizon, the calendar is either a good friend or an adversary. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median performance in the week following the close today has been a gain of 1.32% and ranks in the 93rd percentile of all one-week periods throughout the year. Over the next three months, though, the S&P 500’s median gain of 0.64% ranks in just the 15th percentile as the months of September and October become a larger part of the three-month view.
Jul 10, 2025
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“If you don’t fail sometimes, you are not being ambitious enough.” – Sundar Pichai
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After several days with little in the way of economic or earnings data, this morning we’ll get reports on jobless claims, and we’ve already seen a handful of earnings reports. Of the four companies reporting earnings this morning, two reported better than expected EPS, three missed sales forecasts, and two lowered guidance. Maybe we would have been better off with no data! In response to the reports, we’ve seen some large moves. Helen of Troy (HELE), which reported a reverse triple play, is down over 20% while Conagra (CAG) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) are both down over 4%. The only one of the four stocks trading higher in reaction to its report is Delta (DAL). That stock is flying over 13% in pre-market trading.
While these individual names have seen large reactions, overall, equity futures are up or down 0.05% or less, and treasury yields have barely budged. Crude oil is down less than 1% while gold, silver, copper, and platinum are all firmly higher.
Asian stocks were mixed, with Japan and India both down nearly 0.5% while China was up by a like amount. A former BoJ official made comments that there will likely be no more rate hikes until early 2026, while the Bank of Korea kept rates unchanged. In Europe, equities are moving higher as mining companies fuel a 0.6% rally in the STOXX 600 and a more than 1% rally in the FTSE 100.
Yesterday, we highlighted some of the massive moves in various metals like gold this year. This morning, we’ll shift our focus to Bitcoin, aka digital gold, which has also been performing very well. While Bitcoin’s performance this year looks like more of a sideways move, it’s still up a respectable 18% YTD and hit a record high yesterday. This morning’s price, right around $111K, leaves Bitcoin right near the resistance it has been dealing with since late last year. A breakout above $112K would complete a cup and handle formation, setting the stage for a new leg higher.
Just as bitcoin prices have been looking to break out from resistance, Bitcoin treasury company MicroStrategy (MSTR) has also been dealing with resistance right around $425 since late last year. Without getting into the valuation of the stock or the premium it trades at relative to its underlying crypto holdings, a move above $425 could set the stage for a new leg higher and a test of its post-Election highs from last year.
If Bitcoin is the ‘gold standard’ of the crypto space, Ethereum would be the silver standard, and price action has been much more subdued. While prices have rallied in recent weeks as digital tokens have gained in popularity, Ethereum remains more than 20% below its post-election highs. Prices are up over 7% in the last two days but remain below short-term resistance at the $2,800 level.
Throughout its history, Ethereum has been no stranger to large drawdowns. As shown in the chart below, since 2018, it has only been within 10% of a high on 6% of all days, and on average, it has traded in a drawdown of 53%! That means that the current 42% drawdown from its last record high in late 2021 is more modest than average! No one ever said the crypto space was an area of stability!
Jul 9, 2025
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“A great wind is blowing, and that gives you either imagination or a headache.” – Catherine the Great
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Looking at the quote above from Catherine the Great, isn’t that just the way you feel when it comes to AI? While the possibilities are endless, the pace of change and trying to keep on top of everything going on can be exhausting!
The S&P 500 has declined for two straight sessions, but futures are looking modestly higher this morning on little in the way of news. Investors will continue to monitor Washington for any tariff-related headlines, but the letters and policies released and announced this week have, broadly speaking, had little impact. It’s another quiet day for data as there are no economic reports on the calendar, but minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released at 2 PM.
Speaking of the FOMC, the Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that the President is currently leaning towards Kevin Hassett over Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Powell. Warsh is reportedly falling out of favor for some of his past criticism of the Fed’s zero-interest rate policy and asset purchase programs.
In international markets, Asian stocks were mostly lower overnight following Trump’s comments that he wouldn’t extend his August 1st tariff deadline. The only major index to buck the negative trend was Japan, where the Nikkei rallied 0.33%. In Europe, the tone is much more positive with the STOXX 600 up over 0.7% as defense stocks lead the charge.
As mentioned above, the President’s various tariff policies announced this week haven’t had much impact on a macro basis, but for certain areas like copper, the impacts have been significant. After the year has already seen incredible rallies in the price of gold, platinum, and silver, yesterday, President Trump gave copper the boost it needed when he announced 50% tariffs on all copper imports. The news came just as copper was starting to pull back last week after testing its highs from earlier in the year. That resistance proved no match for the 50% tariff bazooka, and prices broke out to a record high, eclipsing $5.40 per pound, finishing up more than 13% on the day. Strength in copper is often considered a sign of economic strength, but we’re not sure a rally artificially propelled by trade policy would qualify.
Yesterday’s 13.1% rally in copper was a record one-day gain for the commodity, eclipsing the prior record of 12.3% from October 2008. Since 1990, it was also only the third time the commodity rallied more than 10% in a single day.
Jul 8, 2025
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“If your only goal is to become rich, you will never achieve it.” – John D. Rockefeller
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Subdued is the tone once again this morning as equity futures are little changed on either side of the unchanged line. Nasdaq futures are showing the biggest move with a gain of 0.25%. Crude oil is fractionally lower, just below $68 per barrel, while the 10-year yield is up 2 bp,s taking the yield back above 4.4%. Gold is slightly lower, while Bitcoin and Ethereum both are trading up about 1%.
In Asia overnight, most major indices were little changed, except for China, which was up 0.70% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up just over 1%. The modest gains came even as President Trump sent letters to many countries in the region, including Japan and South Korea, informing them that their exports to the US would face tariffs of at least 25%.
European stocks are little changed in the early going this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.10% while Germany and the UK are up fractionally, while France is lower. The EU was one region of the world not to receive a letter on tariffs, and that has raised hopes that a deal with the bloc could be near. Reports this morning suggest that the base rate will be 10% with some exceptions for aircraft and parts, medical equipment, and spirits.
Today in the US, it’s another quiet day on the calendar. NFIB Small Business Optimism came in right in line with expectations at 98.6, which was down very slightly from last month’s reading of 98.8. The only other report on the calendar is the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, where 1-year inflation expectations are expected to come in at 3.2%.
With Elon Musk announcing the creation of the America Party over the weekend and the potential of a third party to hurt Republican majorities in the mid-term elections, investors headed into the new week with concerns that potential retribution from President Trump would hurt Tesla’s business. In response, the stock opened down over 6% yesterday and basically stayed there, finishing the day with a decline of nearly 7%.
Yesterday’s decline broke TSLA’s uptrend off the April lows, and that came after making a lower high in late June. All this came after the stock made a golden cross (50-day moving average cross above the 200-day moving average as both are rising) last week, which technicians consider a positive technical formation. Fitting for a stock like TSLA, the stock’s trading pattern has been sending mixed signals.
Normally, as companies become larger in terms of market cap, their share prices become less volatile, but that’s not the case with TSLA. Yesterday was the 29th daily gain or loss of 5%+ in TSLA over the last six months, which works out to 23% of all trading days. While the company went public in 2010, it wasn’t until 2020 that TSLA routinely started to see 5%+ daily moves on 20% or more of trading days over a rolling six-month period.
Jul 7, 2025
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“History is a guide to navigation in perilous times. History is who we are and why we are the way we are.” – David McCullough
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Investors are being eased back into the market this morning, with futures showing modest losses after a more significant decline overnight. The market may be open, but with no economic or earnings reports on the calendar, things are relatively quiet to kick off the new week. That’s generally the case for the rest of the week too, with very few reports on the calendar in the next four trading days. That will leave plenty of time for investors to focus on trade, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says to expect several announcements in the next two days, and for those that don’t make a deal by August 1st, tariffs on their exports to the US will go back to the levels announced on April 2nd
The long holiday weekend is over, and it’s time for investors to get back to business as Q2 earnings season is right around the corner, and the tariff situation is likely to become more concrete. One thing bulls have going for them heading into this week is the seasonal calendar. Since WWII, the S&P 500’s median performance during the week after the July 4th holiday week has been a gain of 0.47% with positive returns 57.5% of the time. More recently, performance has been even stronger with a median gain of 1.14% and positive returns 70% of the time.
Jul 3, 2025
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“Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.” – Declaration of Independence
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Happy Fourth! In an outcome that most would not have predicted over the last several days and weeks, the House is likely to pass the Reconciliation Bill ahead of the July 4th holiday. Just yesterday, the odds of passage by that date were less than 50%, but the bill cleared a procedural vote overnight, and Polymarket now has the odds of passage at 91%. Whatever side of the aisle you position yourself, the ability of Speaker Johnson to pass legislation over the last six months with such a slim majority has been impressive.
That’s the biggest news event of the market day so far, but there’s a jam-packed economic calendar this morning that includes Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Payrolls, Factory Orders, and ISM Services. Besides being a busy day for data, it’s also a short session as the equity market closes at 1 PM ahead of the holiday, and the bond market closes at 2 PM.
Despite the big political news and the busy day of data ahead, futures are eerily quiet as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all indicated to open less than 0.10% higher. Crude oil is marginally lower, gold is unchanged, and treasury yields are lower. That last point is notable; for all the talk about how the Reconciliation Bill will be a budget buster and blow out the deficit, the 10-year yield has been going down as passage of the bill has become more likely. From a longer-term perspective, too, the 10-year yield is the same now as it was on Election Day.
Heading into the July 4th holiday, the fireworks of the second quarter have put eight of the eleven sectors into overbought territory. Over the last five sessions, every sector has traded higher, and Utilities (XLU) is the only sector ETF with a gain of less than 1%. Leading the way to the upside, Materials (XLB) have rallied over 5% pushing the sector into extreme overbought territory and a gain of nearly 9% YTD.
