Jun 24, 2025
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“I start early and I stay late, day after day, year after year, it took me 17 years and 114 days to become an overnight success.” – Lionel Messi
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Investors may have been puzzled by the lack of any material weakness to kick off the week yesterday, but news overnight of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was likely what the market was sniffing all along. Following yesterday’s intraday rebound, equity futures are indicated to open sharply higher, even as they have given up some of their prior gains. The key to watch today will be how the market trades throughout the trading session. Can it build on the early gains, or will investors look to take profits?
Besides the Mideast crosscurrents, investors will also have to contend with some economic reports, including the 10 AM releases of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing report (expected to weaken modestly) and Consumer Confidence, which is expected to build on last month’s much better than expected report. Besides the data, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak, with the most notable being Chair Powell when he testifies at 10 AM to the House Financial Services Committee. We’ve already seen three members of the FOMC strike a more dovish tone than Powell (Bowman, Goolsbee, and Waller), so will he dig in his heels or strike a more dovish tone? There’s only so long that tariff-induced inflation can be a ‘tomorrow’ story.
After rallying as much as 1.3% intraday yesterday on the back of a rally in crude oil, the S&P 500 Energy sector sold off over 4% on an intraday basis in what turned into a wild intraday range, even in a sector known for its volatility. The result was what technicians call an outside day, where the intraday high exceeds the intraday high of the prior session while the intraday low is below the prior day’s intraday low. Not only was yesterday an outside day for the Energy sector relative to the prior session, but it was also an outside day relative to the sector’s range over the prior five trading days! This morning futures are continuing the weakness from Monday as WTI trades down over 3.5% to just under $66 per barrel.
Days when the Energy sector’s intraday range exceeds the trading range of the sector’s prior five trading days have been very uncommon. While there was another similar “Mega” Outside Day for the sector back in March, since 1990, there have only been six other such days. There was one in April 2024, but before that, you have to go back to October 2018 to find the next occurrence. The chart below shows each of those prior “Mega” Outside Days. Outside of the first two in May 2003 and March 2005, all of the other occurrences have taken place during the 10+ year period where the sector has essentially been rangebound as the sector is at the same levels now as it was in 2008.
Jun 23, 2025
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“At some stage therefore, we should have to expect the machines to take control.” – Alan Turing
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We can all give good rationalizations of why futures have seen such a muted reaction to the Iran news over the weekend, but isn’t that the way hindsight always works? If you had asked anybody to predict how markets would react to a US bombing of targets in Iran, no one would have said a gain of less than 1% in crude oil and no change in S&P 500 futures.
This morning’s muted reaction to the weekend’s events is also a microcosm of the market’s YTD performance. Heading into the final week of the first half, there has been no shortage of market catalysts and subsequent volatility, but here we are with the S&P 500 little changed (up less than 1.5%) on the year. Since WWII, 2025 ranks as just the 12th time (out of 81) that the S&P 500 has been up or down less than 2% heading into the final week of the first half.
The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance during the last week of the first half in each year since 1945. Overall, the median performance has been a decline of 0.13%, with positive returns just 51% of the time, so it hasn’t typically been a positive week for stocks. More recently, performance has been even weaker with negative returns in nine of the last eleven years and a median decline of 0.29%.
Jun 20, 2025
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“There, where I have passed, the grass will never grow again.” – Attila the Hun
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a quiet Friday morning so far, so below is an updated look at where the mega-caps stand heading into this final trading day of the week. While seven of eight are all more than 5% above their 50-day moving averages, Apple (AAPL) remains stuck in a downtrend and is 2.6% below its 50-DMA.
The last six months have been a struggle for Apple (AAPL), which is sitting below $200/share after peaking just below $260 on the day after Christmas 2024.
Jun 18, 2025
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“As long as the reason of man continues fallible, and he is at liberty to exercise it, different opinions will be formed.” – James Madison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The June “Fed day” is here, and US equity futures are currently just a hair above the flat line as of 7 AM ET. The typical Fed day sees the S&P 500 open higher by roughly 20-30 basis points. Below is a chart showing the S&P’s average intraday path on Fed days since Powell became Fed Chair back in 2018 (red line). The blue line shows the S&P’s average path over just the last ten Fed days. Powell Fed days over his entire tenure and the last ten meetings have looked very similar, with the S&P sitting on decent gains going into the 2 PM ET rate announcement. We then typically see a rally from 2-3 PM ET followed by a sharp sell-off in the last hour of trading. As we noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, anything but a last-hour selloff will be atypical for a Powell Fed day.
Jun 17, 2025
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“A man has cause for regret only when he sows and no one reaps.” – Charles Goodyear
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a strong bounce-back day yesterday following Friday’s 1% drop, US equity futures are down slightly ahead of today’s open on relatively little news. As shown below, market internals remain overbought, but not by much.
Looking at sectors, Energy now has the highest percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages at 91.3%, and the Energy sector’s valuation relative to the last ten years is on the low side compared to the rest of the market. Financials and Technology currently have the highest valuations relative to readings over the last ten years.
Jun 16, 2025
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“When the lambs is lost in the mountain, he said. They is cry. Sometime come the mother. Sometime the wolf.” – Cormac McCarthy, Blood Meridian
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are bouncing back pre-market to start the new trading week after a 1%+ drop last Friday. As shown below, the S&P has stabilized with less volatility over the last few weeks, giving it a chance to re-charge for an eventual breakout to new highs. The index needs to gain about 2.9% from its current level to make a new all-time high.
